On Sunday, Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford combined for eight touchdowns in a 44-42 thriller. They were responsible for more than 60 expected points of added value between them. It was one of the most remarkable shootouts of the 2024 NFL season.
This article is not about them. It’s about the overmatched quarterbacks that weaved their way through a slate of underwhelming games in Week 14. On a day where Mac Jones and Will Levis flailed their way to a 10-6 mud fight, a handful of poor performances stood out.
Who was the most disappointing quarterback of Week 14? Fortunately, we’ve got a metric that can help figure that out.
Using the advanced stat expected points added (EPA) can gauge how much a quarterback brings to the table compared to a typical player. By comparing each passer’s Week 14 EPA against their 2024 average to date we get a better picture of just how frustrating their performances were. And we can find both of those thanks to The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his incredibly useful stats sites RBSDM.com and HabitatRing.com.
This is a metric that gauges disappointment based on what we’d typically expect. Drew Lock started his day 0-for-eight, but he was filling in for Tommy DeVito and, let’s be honest, who really expected much from a guy who couldn’t beat Tommy Cutlets for a starting job?
So who was actually the worst? There were several candidates but only one man can truly call himself the grossest quarterback of Week 14.
Please bear with me for any Twitter embed issues. Our editing software has become a whole problem on that front the past few weeks. Rest assured, if there’s a play alluded to in the text it’s worth clicking through to see if it didn’t make it into the article itself.
5. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
2024 expected points added (EPA) per game: -7.1
Week 14 EPA: -8.4
Difference: 1.3 points worse
Levis was bad. Not significantly worse than usual, but in a week filled with mid-to-great quarterback performances this was enough to land him among ignominious company.
He deserves it. Here he is, taking six points off the board in what became a 10-6 loss to Mac by-god Jones.
Titans go for it on 4th down and Levis misses a wide open tight end #85 pic.twitter.com/onMypSqCzL
— Fitz (@LaurieFitzptrck) December 8, 2024
Levis’s average pass went only five yards downfield and he still couldn’t complete 60 percent of his attempts. His 4.3 yards per dropback made him less efficient than a typical Tony Pollard handoff (4.9 yards per attempt). This was grim, and not in the fun “Will Levis imploded and turned himself into an internet meme” way.
4. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
2024 expected points added (EPA) per game: -4.1
Week 14 EPA: -6
Difference: 1.9 points worse
Williams’s uneven 2024 left him on the wrong side of the EPA threshold, but the transition from Matt Eberflus to Thomas Brown at head coach held promise. After all, Williams was responsible for 19.1 points added in three games with Brown as his interim offensive coordinator — all close Bears losses.
Week 14’s defeat in San Francisco was not close. It was a disaster. Chicago gained four yards of total offense in the first half. 0.24 yards per play. At the center of this complete lack of storm was Williams, running backward into sacks like it was early November all over again.
Back 2 Back sacks for @__lobo99!
📺 #CHIvsSF on FOX
NFL+ // https://t.co/KTh0i4oaLh pic.twitter.com/y2UJ04Dx7S— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) December 9, 2024
Williams was sacked seven times, leaving him at 88 net passing yards on 30 dropbacks. He only attempted six passes that traveled more than eight yards downfield. He had a nice corner end zone throw to Rome Odunze, but that’s about all the silver lining Chicago can glean from Sunday.
3. Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns
2024 expected points added (EPA) per game: -1.3
Week 14 EPA: -6.2
Difference: 4.9 points worse
Winston is Schrodinger’s quarterback. Whether he’s good or not hinges on if you’re observing him. Tune in for a single play of a Browns game and you could see magic like this:
a familiar spot for @jerryjeudy#CLEvsPIT on CBS and NFL+ pic.twitter.com/cmSzFUvb2G
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) December 8, 2024
Or you could watch a 309-pound lineman earn the first interception of his college or pro career on a truly stupid forced screen pass.
Big man steal for the @Steelers!
📺: #CLEvsPIT on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/Zl89rNf9Ig— NFL (@NFL) December 8, 2024
Sunday’s performance featured everything you’d want from Winston, assuming you weren’t rooting for his team. He put his offense in position to thrive, then ripped it away by trying to do too much. He threw as many touchdowns (two) as interceptions and officially shut the door on Cleveland’ postseason hopes.
2. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
2024 expected points added (EPA) per game: 1.6
Week 14 EPA: -5
Difference: 6.6 points worse
Murray started the season hot and pushed the Cardinals into first place in the NFC West, seemingly countering the “Kyler Murray stinks once the new Call of Duty” theory that’s haunted him through past Novembers. As it turns out, 2024 may have merely delayed this trend.
Arizona has lost three straight games since its Week 11 bye. Murray’s total EPA in that stretch is a -4.1 — a pair of clunkers against the Seattle Seahawks and a Week 13 come-from-ahead loss to the Minnesota Vikings sealed by a late interception. Sunday saw two more interceptions; an underthrow on a deep shot after escaping pressure:
Another one, THANK YOU. pic.twitter.com/KXYwaeBx87
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) December 8, 2024
and a failure to see linebacker Ernest Jones dropping into coverage:
THAT'S YOURS, ERNEST. pic.twitter.com/hvmDsQp0yr
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) December 8, 2024
Those interceptions gave the Seahawks the short fields they needed to build a 10-point lead they didn’t give up. There were more flaws in Arizona’s game besides Murray’s mistakes, but his continued struggles against Seattle certainly didn’t help.
1. Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas Raiders
2024 expected points added (EPA) per game: 0.1
Week 14 EPA: -11.8
Difference: 11.9 points worse
A reckoning was due; O’Connell was brought back to the land of positive EPA thanks to last week’s near-upset over the Chiefs. Unfortunately, he couldn’t turn that performance into anything more than an outlier.
He threw for just 104 yards on 19 passes with an interception before leaving with what’s feared to be a season-ending knee injury. He was replaced by Desmond Ridder, who readers will recognize from the 2023 editions of this column and, likely, a few to end 2024.
