The fantasy baseball season is just barely underway, but you may already be feeling a little panicked if your players are off to wobbly starts. Most notably, many pitchers drafted to be aces have been volatile to start the season. Gerrit Cole, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Zack Wheeler and quite a few more are off to tough starts.
As for bats, there have also been more than a few concerns. Whit Merrifield is batting .136 and has only scored one run. Kyle Tucker, a first-round pick, is batting .127.
For pitchers, it’s important to exercise some patience. The abbreviated spring training has no doubt had major effects; pitchers are creatures of habit and need to have their full conditioning. I expect many will stabilize over the coming weeks. Keep an eye on velocity and spin rates as the weeks go along.
As for hitters, you may have noticed that power is down overall around the league as well. Whether that has to do with the new ball, humidors or simply colder April weather is anyone’s guess at this point, but the fact remains offense is down.
But not all fantasy managers are patient – so now is a great time to make some offers on those players off to a slow start. Baseball is a long season. In the broad scheme of things, a three-week slump is only a blip on the radar, but it feels much more severe coming at the beginning of the season. It’s the perfect time to buy low on some studs. Here are five I have my eye on.
1. Kyle Tucker (OF), Astros
Trust me, Kyle Tucker managers are not happy. After taking Tucker at the back of the first round, they were expecting more than a .127 batting average, four RBI and a stolen base.
I don’t have any teams with Tucker, because I thought the draft capital was too costly. I expected him to bat toward the bottom of the lineup and I didn’t think his steals were a lock, but suddenly I am very interested. Sure, he’s striking out. A LOT. But he does have two homers on the season and his expected batting average of .287 and expected slugging of .595 say he’s had more than a little bit of bad luck. If you’ll recall, Tucker also got off to a cold start last season. He hit .181 for the month of April and by the end of the season he finished at .294. The Astros as a whole are off to a sluggish start, averaging only 3.6 runs per game and batting .209 as a club. Eventually, Tucker and his teammates will get back on track. The window will probably close sooner than later, so take advantage of the worried Tucker manager before you miss your window.
2. Giancarlo Stanton (OF), Yankees
Stanton is batting only .203 with two homers in the first three weeks of the season. But, here’s all you need to know: Stanton’s max exit velo and average exit velo are still in the top 1% of the league. He has a 50% hard-hit rate, and eventually his luck has to turn. Once the weather warms, we should see more power from the veteran.
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3. Freddy Peralta (SP), Brewers
I listed a few pitchers above that are off to wobbly starts, but Peralta is one that I am interested in acquiring. Do I think he will turn in another sub 3.00 ERA season? Probably not. But, when you look closely, Peralta hasn’t lost any velocity on his pitches and he’s still getting big swings and misses. His curveball has a 70% whiff rate. Control is where Peralta is lacking, but typically control is the last thing that locks in when a pitcher is stretching out for the season. You may recall, Peralta averaged one walk per inning for his first seven innings in 2021, and in the end– well, you saw how that turned out. An 11.57 ERA and 2.29 WHIP could have his manager ready to make a deal. Keep Peralta on your bench until he stabilizes, and then watch him rack up the Ks for you down the stretch.
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4. Brandon Woodruff (SP), Brewers
Brewers pitching has struggled to start the season, and their offense has scored only 3.3 runs per game. Yet, the Brewers are still a .600 ballclub. Woodruff has improved each start after opening with a disaster allowing seven earned runs to the Chicago Cubs. His velocity is only half a tick lower than last year, and he’s not allowing too much hard contact. He hasn’t surrendered a run across his last 11 innings pitched, so the window may have already closed for a deal, but it’s worth a shot.
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