For years, men’s college basketball championships often have been won or lost many months in advance. Player decisions about the NBA—and, increasingly, whether to transfer or even enroll in college—shape the next season.
On that front, consider Duke the biggest potential winner for 2024. So far.
Kyle Filipowski announced Tuesday that he’ll staying in college for at least one more season, bypassing the likely chance to be a first-round draft pick. The 7-footer averaged 15.1 points and 8.9 rebounds for the Blue Devils as a freshman, leading the team in both categories. His late-season progression helped propel Duke to the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament title and a No. 5 NCAA tournament seed, whereupon it lost in the second round to Tennessee.
In an era when older teams tend to fare best, Filipowski’s return helps keep the Devils out of a youth spin cycle. They played five freshmen in their seven-man rotation last season, and two of those—center Dereck Lively and forward Dariq Whitehead—have declared for the NBA draft. Filipowski joins fellow class of 2022 recruits Tyrese Proctor and Mark Mitchell in staying at Duke for a second season. If point guard Jeremy Roach returns for his senior season (he’s testing the draft waters), Jon Scheyer could have four starters back for ’23–24.
Of course, that rather unexpected veteran nuclear will create a minutes backlog for another highly touted Duke freshman class, which Rivals.com rated the No. 2 class of ’23. The dominoes might already be falling because of that.
The return of multiple frontcourt players for a second season likely played a factor in 6'8" five-star signee Mackenzie Mgbako’s requesting his release Tuesday from his national letter of intent to play for the Devils. “I feel that there will be other places for me to continue my basketball journey, so I will be re-opening the recruiting process to all schools,” Mgbako wrote in an Instagram post.
If Mgbako is granted his release, he will rival Michigan transfer center Hunter Dickinson for the most highly sought player available this spring. Mgbako, rated No. 6 nationally by Rivals, could potentially join his New Jersey Scholars AAU teammates D.J. Wagner and Aaron Bradshaw at Kentucky. If that came to pass, it would give the Wildcats the No. 3–7 players in the Rivals class of 2023 rankings: Wagner at No. 3, Justin Edwards No. 4, Bradshaw No. 5, Mgbako No. 6 and Robert Dillingham No. 7. Which would be ridiculous.
But there are multiple other options for Mgbako, whose final school choices also included Ohio State and Memphis. Former Duke assistant Nolan Smith, who helped lay the recruiting groundwork with Mgbako, is now at Louisville, where virtually unlimited playing time is immediately available. Tobacco Road rival North Carolina also could materialize as an option.
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For now, though, the bigger news is Filipowski’s firm status at Duke for another season. Whether it was due to a lack of NBA consensus on his draft stock or a sincere enjoyment of his time in Durham—plus available name, image and likeness opportunities—the Blue Devils are the biggest winners of the spring roster carousel to date.
Filipowski has some things to work on, starting with his perimeter shooting. He made just 28.6% of his three-pointers while taking a lot of them (124), and was 0-for-6 from three in two NCAA tourney games. He must also improve his ballhandling and passing, having committed three or more turnovers in half of Duke’s 36 games.
Those things can all be polished with additional time at the college level. What he already has is less easily taught or developed: size, athleticism and competitiveness.
Filipowski didn’t play particularly well in the loss to Tennessee, but he displayed an element of toughness that should have answered any doubts in that regard. The Volunteers’ 265-pound, 24-year-old enforcer, Uros Plavsic, targeted Filipowski from the opening tip, knocking him to the ground twice in the first couple of minutes and being whistled for two fouls. While that might have unsettled Filipowski a bit, he regrouped and kept battling in a brass-knuckles game — playing through a cut that was opened up by one elbow to his cheek on a rebound.
Give him another year to develop his skill and add some more muscle to his 230-pound frame, and he could be considerably improved as a sophomore. And that’s after being quite good as a freshman.
If Roach stays in school at Duke, Scheyer will have an elite backcourt combination of the senior point guard and 6'5" sophomore Proctor, who was the only Blue Devil who could create his own points against Tennessee. Incoming freshmen Jared McCain and Caleb Foster would provide backcourt depth most coaches would envy.
Filipowski and Mitchell are joined up front by five-star freshmen T.J. Power and Sean Stewart. If 7'1" Christian Reeves, a four-star freshman recruit, develops after not finding a spot in the rotation last year, Duke could have a ninth player in its potential lineup. And a bottomless supply of size.
A lot of way-too-early top 25s had Duke as a top-five team for 2023–24, including Sports Illustrated’s. Potentially losing a five-star incoming freshman hurts, but retaining a five-star sophomore more than compensates for that. As of today, it’s not unreasonable to move Duke up to an early No. 1 for next season.
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