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Sports Illustrated

Sport

Marcus Krum

Knockout Stage Scenarios for Each World Cup Team, Group

Germany Saudi Arabia World Cup Argentina Costa Rica Japan Poland Mexico Spain Belgium

A World Cup that’s produced its fair share of upsets in the group stage is gearing up for a thrilling final matchday.

Argentina’s loss to Saudi Arabia, Germany’s defeat to Japan, Belgium’s loss to Morocco and other surprising results mean there’s still all to play for among most World Cup groups. So what does each team need to do to qualify for the knockout stage?

Keeping in mind that the top two teams from each group go through, here’s a look at all eight groups and how things could play out (two groups have yet to play their second matches yet; all teams will have played two games as of Monday).

Group A

Fixtures

- Tuesday, Nov. 29—Ecuador vs. Senegal, Qatar vs. Netherlands (10 a.m. ET)

Netherlands

4 points, 3 goals scored, 1 goal allowed, +2 goal differential

Qualifies with a win or draw against Qatar, or a Senegal loss.

If it loses to Qatar, and ...

- Ecuador beats Senegal, the Netherlands still qualifies.
- Senegal beats Ecuador, then the Netherlands and Ecuador would be level on points and the first tiebreaker of goal differential. The second spot comes down to the second tiebreaker of goals scored between the Netherlands and Ecuador.
- Ecuador draws Senegal, then the second spot comes down to goal differential between the Netherlands and Senegal.

Ecuador

4 points, 3 goals scored, 1 goal allowed, +2 goal differential

Qualifies with a win or draw against Senegal.

If Ecuador loses, then it will only qualify with a Netherlands loss and an advantage in goals scored over the Netherlands.

Senegal

3 points, 3 goals scored, 3 goals allowed, 0 goal differential

Qualifies with a win against Ecuador.

If Senegal draws with Ecuador, then it will only qualify with a Netherlands loss and an advantage in goal differential over the Netherlands.

Qatar

0 points, 1 goal scored, 5 goals allowed, -4 goal differential

Is eliminated from knockout stage contention.

Group B

Fixtures

- Tuesday, Nov. 29—Iran vs. U.S., Wales vs. England (2 p.m. ET)

England

4 points, 6 goals scored, 2 goals allowed, +4 goal differential

Qualifies with a win, draw or loss by three goals or fewer against Wales.

If England loses by four goals or more, and ...

- U.S. or Iran wins, then England does not qualify.
- U.S. draws with Iran, then England qualifies unless it loses by six goals or more to Wales.

Iran

3 points, 4 goals scored, 6 goals allowed, -2 goal differential

Qualifies with a win vs. the U.S.

If Iran draws with the U.S., then it will qualify if England wins or draws vs. Wales.

U.S.

2 points, 1 goal scored, 1 goal allowed, 0 goal differential

Qualifies with a win vs. Iran.

Wales

1 point, 1 goal scored, 3 goals allowed, -2 goal differential

Qualifies with a win over England and an Iran draw with the U.S., or a win over England by four or more goals.

Group C

Fixtures

- Tuesday, Nov. 30—Poland vs. Argentina, Saudi Arabia vs. Mexico (2 p.m. ET)

Poland

4 points, 2 goals scored, 0 goals allowed, +2 goal differential

Qualifies with a win or draw vs. Argentina.

If Poland loses to Argentina and ...

- Saudi Arabia draws with Mexico, then the second spot comes down to goal differential between Poland and Saudi Arabia.
- Mexico beats Saudi Arabia, then the second spot comes down to goal differential between Poland and Mexico.
- Saudi Arabia wins, then Poland does not qualify.

Argentina

3 points, 3 goals scored, 2 goals allowed, +1 goal differential

Qualifies with a win over Poland.

If Argentina draws with Poland and ...

- Mexico draws with Saudi Arabia, then Argentina qualifies over Saudi Arabia on goal differential.
- Saudi Arabia beats Mexico, then Argentina does not qualify.
- Mexico beats Saudi Arabia, then the second spot comes down to goal differential between Mexico and Argentina.

Saudi Arabia

3 points, 2 goals scored, 3 goals allowed, -1 goal differential

Qualifies with a win over Mexico.

If Saudi Arabia draws with Mexico and ...

- Argentina draws with Poland, then Saudi Arabia does not qualify.
- Argentina beats Poland, then the second spot comes down to goal differential between Saudi Arabia and Poland.
- Poland beats Argentina, then Saudi Arabia qualifies.

Mexico

1 point, 0 goals scored, 2 goals allowed, -2 goal differential

Qualifies with a win over Saudi Arabia and a Poland win over Argentina, or a win over Saudi Arabia by four or more goals.

If Mexico beats Saudi Arabia and ...

- Argentina beats Poland, then second place comes down to goal differential between Poland and Mexico.
- Argentina draws with Poland, then second place comes down to goal differential between Argentina and Mexico.

Kylian Mbappe’s stellar group stage performance has defending champion France headed to the knockout stage.
Paul Zimmer/IMAGO

Group D

Fixtures

- Wednesday, Nov. 30—Tunisia vs. France, Australia vs. Denmark (10 a.m. ET)

France

6 points, 6 goals scored, 2 goals allowed, +4 goal differential

Has qualified for the knockout stage.

Australia

3 points, 2 goals scored, 4 goals allowed, -2 goal differential

Qualifies with a win over Denmark.

If Australia draws with Denmark and ...

- France beats or draws with Tunisia, then Australia qualifies.
- Tunisia beats France, then the second spot comes down to goal differential between Tunisia and Australia.

Denmark

1 point, 1 goal scored, 2 goals allowed, -1 goal differential

Qualifies with a win over Australia and a France win or draw with Tunisia.

If Denmark beats Australia and Tunisia beats France, the second spot comes down to goal differential between Denmark and Tunisia.

Tunisia

1 point, 0 goals scored, 1 goal allowed, -1 goal differential

Qualifies with a win over France and a Denmark draw with Australia.

If Tunisia beats France and ...

- Denmark beats Australia, then second spot comes down to goal differential between Denmark and Tunisia.
- Australia beats Denmark, then Tunisia will not qualify.

Group E

Fixtures

- Thursday, Dec. 1—Japan vs. Spain, Costa Rica vs. Germany (2 p.m. ET)

Spain

4 points, 8 goals scored, 1 goal allowed, +7 goal differential

Qualifies with a win or draw with Japan, or a Costa Rica draw with Germany.

If Japan beats Spain and ...

- Germany beats Costa Rica, then the second spot comes down to goal differential between Germany and Spain.
- Costa Rica beats Germany, then Spain does not qualify.
- Costa Rica draws with Germany, then the second spot comes down to goal differential between Germany and Costa Rica.

Japan: 3 points, 2 goals scored, 2 goals allowed, 0 goal differential

Qualifies with a win over Spain.

If Japan draws Spain and ...

- Costa Rica draws with Germany, then Japan qualifies.
- Germany beats Costa Rica, then the second spot comes down to goal differential between Germany and Japan.
- Costa Rica beats Germany, then Japan does not qualify.

Costa Rica

3 points, 1 goal scored, 7 goals allowed, -6 goal differential

Qualifies with a win over Germany.

If Costa Rica draws Germany and ...

- Spain beats Japan, then Costa Rica qualifies.
- Japan beats Spain, then the second spot comes down to goal differential between Costa Rica and Spain.
- Japan draws with Spain, then Costa Rica does not qualify.

Germany

1 point, 2 goals scored, 3 goals allowed, -6 goal differential

Qualifies with a win over Costa Rica and a Spain win over Japan.

If Germany beats Costa Rica and ...

- Spain draws with Japan, then the second spot comes down to goal differential between Germany and Japan.
- Japan beats Spain, then the second spot comes down to goal differential between Germany and Spain.

Group F

Fixtures

- Thursday, Nov. 30—Croatia vs. Belgium, Canada vs. Morocco (10 a.m.)

Croatia

4 points, 4 goals scored, 1 goal allowed, +3 goal differential

Qualifies with a win or draw with Belgium.

If Croatia loses to Belgium and Canada beats Morocco, then the second spot comes down to goal differential between Croatia and Morocco.

Morocco

4 points, 2 goals scored, 0 goals allowed, +2 goal differential

Qualifies with a win or draw with Canada, or a Croatia win over Belgium.

If Morocco loses to Canada and ...

- Belgium beats Croatia, then the second spot comes down to goal differential between Croatia and Morocco.
- Croatia draws with Belgium, then the second spot comes down to goal differential between Belgium and Morocco.

Belgium

3 points, 1 goal scored, 2 goals allowed, -1 goal differential

Qualifies with a win over Croatia.

If Belgium draws with Croatia and ...

- Canada beats Morocco, then the second spot comes down to goal differential between Belgium and Morocco.
- Morocco beats or draws with Canada, then Belgium does not qualify.

Canada

0 points, 1 goal scored, 5 goals allowed, -4 goal differential

Is eliminated from contention for the knockout stage.

Group G

Fixtures

- Monday, Nov. 28—Brazil vs. Switzerland (11 a.m. ET)
- Friday, Dec. 2—Serbia vs. Switzerland, Cameroon vs. Brazil (2 p.m. ET)

Brazil

3 points, 2 goals scored, 0 goals allowed, +2 goal differential

Qualifies on Monday with a win over Switzerland.

Switzerland

3 points, 1 goal scored, 0 goals allowed, +1 goal differential

Qualifies on Monday with a win over Brazil.

Cameroon

1 points, 3 goals scored, 4 goals allowed, -1 goal differential

Remains in contention and will need to beat Brazil in its finale, but awaits result of Brazil-Switzerland to determine its final-match scenarios.

Serbia

1 points, 3 goals scored, 5 goals allowed, -2 goal differential

Remains in contention and will need to beat Switzerland in its finale, but awaits result of Brazil-Switzerland to determine its final-match scenarios.