Expectations for Klay Thompson have been relatively low compared to what they were four or five years ago. And of course they have — the guy tore both his ACL and his Achilles in consecutive years. Nobody should expect him to be an All-Star again.
But there’s no denying that Thompson’s seemingly perpetual shooting slump hurt the Warriors in a tremendous way. He just couldn’t get going consistently for the Warriors to start this season.
He’d shoot terribly, give a few good games back and then start slumping again. He’d still talk his trash, of course. But there just wasn’t much backing it up.
There’s a belief that Thompson’s slump was a result of him not working out this offseason in an effort to avoid injury. My colleague, Bryan Kalbrosky, detailed that strategy earlier in the season.
The thinking was that when Thompson ruptured his Achilles tendon he was playing ball in the offseason. So Golden State put Thompson on ice this offseason in hopes of avoiding that. However, he had to play his way into form during the regular season, but it took a while for him to get there.
Since Christmas Day, however, Thompson has really seemed to return to form.
It bears itself out in the raw numbers. Klay is averaging 33.6 points on 46.6% shooting from the field and 40% from deep. That stretch includes a 54-point burner against the Hawks.
54 points
10 threesKLAY THOMPSON » https://t.co/ocDF2EHeJH pic.twitter.com/uJMXVWEWm5
— VoteKlay4AllStar (@warriors) January 3, 2023
And this near-game-winning shot against the Pistons.
ARE U KIDDING ME KLAY THOMPSON?!?!?! THIS TEAM LOL! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/sO7GX0m7ey
— AJ King (@allday_ajking) January 5, 2023
Thompson is on a tear. If he looks like the Klay Thompson of old to you, you’re not tripping. Make no mistake about it — that’s what this is. Offensively, this is the version of Thompson that was an All-Star.
So the question becomes, what’s triggering this resurgence for Thompson? And the answer is a few things.
First of all, and maybe most importantly, shots are just falling for Klay now. There’s a bit of dumb luck involved when it comes to shooting and Thompson is getting some of that now.
The quality of his shots isn’t really much better than it was before this 5 game stretch. According to PBP Stats, Thompson’s shot quality was rated at 0.51 before Christmas Day. It’s marginally gotten worse since he’s caught fire with his rating dipping down to .49 since.
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What makes this even more remarkable is that the percentage of Thompson’s field goals taken either from 3-point range or at the rim — the two most premium pieces of real estate on a basketball court — has drastically dropped. Before Christmas Day nearly 67% of Thompson’s shots came from those two areas. Since then, that number has dropped to 59%.
He’s taking more midrange jump shots. His long-midrange shot frequency jumped from 15% to 21% and his unassisted 2-point field goal attempts per 100 possessions have jumped from 1.40 to 4.84.
That’s a huge jump. And normally it isn’t a good thing — the long 2 is normally the worst shot in the game. Except for when it comes to elite shooters, anyway.
That logic applies to Thompson. He’s shot the long 2 at a decent clip all season long — much better than he’s been at the rim.
It’s still not the greatest value, but for Thompson, the midrange 2-pointer has always been a staple of his game. For his career, he’s averaged 3.96 long twos per 100 possessions. That 1.40 mark was way off where the mark usually is. This isn’t Klay taking a bunch of bad shots — it’s him going back to his roots.
With Steph Curry out and the Warriors’ offense much more dependent on Thompson’s shooting, he’s managed to find his rhythm again through his midrange jump shot. It’s helped steady the Warriors’ ship to the tune of a 6-4 record without their MVP candidate.
They’re going to need a lot more of this from Klay if they want to improve upon that as Curry gets ready to make his return. Certainly, with the way he’s shooting, he doesn’t mind that at all.
