Kiribati has announced it will push ahead with its withdrawal from the Pacific Islands Forum, delivering a damaging blow to the regional body on the eve of its most important meeting in years.
The Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) leaders meeting is being held this week in Fiji's capital Suva, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese flying in early Wednesday morning.
Officials were hoping the meeting would allow leaders to heal a rancorous leadership dispute which has threatened to split the forum, after Micronesian nations — including Kiribati — accused other Pacific countries of breaking a "gentleman's agreement" to hand the Secretary-General position to their candidate.
Last month, Fiji's Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama struck the Suva Agreement with some key Micronesian leaders, fuelling hopes the forum's unity could be preserved.
Most observers expected the agreement to be endorsed by leaders in Suva this week, allowing Secretary-General Henry Puna to stay in the job while ensuring his replacement would come from Micronesia.
Kiribati's withdrawal 'a matter of principle'
However, Kiribati wasn't part of that pact and now President Taneti Maamau has written a lengthy letter to Mr Puna, declaring that his country cannot sign the Suva agreement and that it will pull out of the forum.
In his letter, the President reiterated many of the complaints Micronesia had about the PIF leadership contest and suggested he still wanted Mr Puna to quit the position, saying his country "could not set aside the values and principles that we firmly stand on with regard to the issues at hand".
He also suggested that his country was never formally consulted about the Suva Agreement and that the peak Micronesian body of leaders — the Micronesian Presidents Summit — never gave it formal endorsement.
The letter was first reported by 1News New Zealand but the ABC has independently confirmed that it is genuine.
Move away from PIF is a chance for China
Kiribati's decision will weaken the forum at a critical time, with the region facing intensifying strategic competition and grappling with disagreements about how to deal with China's increasingly ambitious push to expand ties with Pacific nations.
The announcement will also dismay diplomats from several Pacific countries – as well as from Australia — who have been working hard to restore the unity of the key regional body.
Kiribati had become increasingly isolated from other Micronesian nations and had recently rejected several overtures from Pacific Island countries to try and heal the breach.
Its withdrawal from the Pacific Islands Forum may also see it draw closer to China.
Kiribati only restored ties with Beijing in 2019, when it made the diplomatic switch from Taiwan, but the relationship has grown quite rapidly in a short period of time.
Anna Powles from Massey University said Kiribati's announcement stemmed from serious differences with other Micronesian nations and would have profound consequences for regional politics.
It is also a blow to Mr Bainimarama, who has expended considerable diplomatic capital and effort as the current Chair of PIF to try and orchestrate a reconciliation within the forum.
The Minister for the Pacific, Pat Conroy, said Australia still hoped that the Pacific Islands Forum would be able to convince Kiribati to stay.
"We are working very hard under the leadership of [forum chair] Fiji to engage with the government of Kiribati and encourage them to re-engage with the process and not go through with their formal decision to leave the forum," he said.
"[The forum] is a powerful voice for our region … and losing Kiribati would obviously not be a good thing, and that is is why we're working hard to avoid that."
