A weaker-than-expected February jobs report amid a war in the Middle East added even more complexity to an equation for interest rates already complicated by the fact that Kevin Warsh will soon replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair, pending Senate approval.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will reveal its target range for the federal funds rate and release its updated monetary policy statement at 2 pm Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, along with its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections.
Then, Powell will address reporters at 2:30 pm for the second-to-last time in his official capacity. Despite the historic pressure on the Fed to maintain a balance between price stability and full employment, markets expect the central bank and its leader to hold its wait-and-see line.
Economic reports we're watching
Wednesday, March 18: Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI: Federal government agencies are slowly catching up to a normal release schedule for economic data, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will share producer inflation numbers for February less than three weeks after it offered the January update.
Wednesday, March 18: Federal Open Market Committee policy statement, FOMC Summary of Economic Projections and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference: How outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who has one more meeting after this as leader of the world's most important central bank, and his colleagues evaluate the balance between price stability and full employment is a complicated question amid a war in the Middle East.
Read on to see the entire weekly economic calendar of the most important upcoming economic reports scheduled to be released in the next several days. At times, we provide expanded previews and recaps for select reports.
Please check back often. This economic calendar is updated regularly. Bolded reports are those considered more noteworthy. All reporting times are in Eastern Time.
Reports that have been delayed due to the government shutdown are marked with an asterisk (*).
Monday (3/16)
Time released |
Economic report |
Period |
8:30 am |
Empire State Manufacturing Index |
March |
10:15 am |
Industrial production |
February |
10:15 am |
Capacity utilization |
February |
Tuesday (3/17)
Time released |
Economic report |
Period |
10 am |
Pending home sales |
February |
10 am |
NAHB Housing Market Index |
March |
Wednesday (3/18)
It's PPI time again
The sharp spike in crude oil prices amid the war in the Middle East between the U.S., Israel and Iran won't show up in the February Producer Price Index (PPI). But it is coming. And producer prices are already rising.
According to the BLS, the PPI and core PPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively, in January, and exceeded the consensus forecast.
Headline PPI was up 0.4% in December and 0.2% in November, so the three-month month-over-month trend is "higher."
From the closing bell on February 27, when January PPI data was released, through the closing bell on March 12, the per-barrel price for the front-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contract increased by 42.8%.
"The Fed will have to wait until the morning of their March 18th meeting for the PPI data to get a more complete read on February's core PCE," Deutsche Bank economist Amy Yang writes, referencing the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, which hit a two-year high in January.
"Based on our component-level CPI forecasts," Yang concludes, "our prior expectation is for a 0.18% February gain, which would have the year-over-year rate decline to 2.8%."
Powell's last dot-plot
"Stagflation risks have risen since the FOMC last met in January," Wells Fargo economists Tom Porcelli, Sarah House and Michael Pugliese write in a preview of the March 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. "Higher inflation and a weaker labor market is the FOMC's worst nightmare as it puts the dual mandate in tension."
Porcelli, House and Pugliese, consistent with CME Group FedWatch, expect the Fed to hold the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% "and maintain maximum flexibility."
As the economists note, "It goes without saying the conflict in Iran has a highly uncertain outlook, with oil prices gyrating wildly in response to the uncertainty." At the same time, the February jobs report suggests the employment situation is "lukewarm and muddling along."
Meanwhile, they add, "There has been no further progress toward 2% inflation over the inter-meeting period." In fact, Porcelli, House and Pugliese suggest the March Summary of Economic Projections "will shift in a stagflationary direction."
Inflation projections will be revised higher "in part due to higher energy prices and in part due to recent strength in some core PCE components," the economists forecast, with the "slightly stickier picture of inflation … likely to carry through to 2027."
GDP forecasts are also likely to be lower but consistent with above-trend growth. And estimates for the unemployment rate are likely to edge up.
"'First, do no harm' keeps median dots unchanged," they conclude. "With estimates for inflation drifting up but growth projections shifting down, we think the net impact will be no change to the median dots."
Time released |
Economic report |
Period |
8:30 am |
Producer Price Index (CPI) |
February |
8:30 am |
Core PPI |
February |
10 am |
Factory orders* |
January |
2 pm |
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy statement |
N/A |
2 pm |
FOMC Summary of Economic Projections |
N/A |
2:30 pm |
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's press conference |
N/A |
Thursday (3/19)
Time released |
Economic report |
Period |
8:30 am |
Weekly jobless claims |
Week ending March 4 |
8:30 am |
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey |
March |
10 am |
Wholesale inventories* |
January |
10 am |
New home sales* |
January |
Friday (3/20)
Time released |
Economic report |
Period |
8:30 am |
Employment Cost Index |
Q4 |
Reporting schedules are provided Forex Factory and MarketWatch.
