Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and his colleagues face complex challenges as they gather for the July 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. That's the highlight of this week's economic calendar.
Meanwhile, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release updated data on the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and we'll also get weekly initial jobless claims and consumer sentiment survey results for July.
Wednesday, July 29, FOMC policy statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference: On July 24, CME FedWatch showed a 64.2% probability the Fed holds this week, down from 87.2% on July 17. Could a change happen at the second FOMC meeting of the Warsh era?
Thursday, July 30, Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) and Core PCE: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) cooled in June, as crude oil prices fell amid a ceasefire in the Middle East. It's reasonable to expect a similar trajectory for PCE.
Read on to see the entire weekly economic calendar of the most important upcoming economic reports scheduled to be released in the next several days. At times, we provide expanded previews and recaps for select reports.
Please check back often. This economic calendar is updated regularly. Bolded reports are those considered more noteworthy. All reporting times are in Eastern Time.
Monday (7/27)
Time released |
Economic report |
Period |
8:30 am |
Durable goods orders |
June |
Tuesday (7/28)
Time released |
Economic report |
Period |
8:30 am |
Trade balance |
June |
8:30 am |
Retail inventories |
June |
8:30 am |
Wholesale inventories |
June |
9 am |
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
May |
10 am |
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index |
July |
Wednesday (7/29)
Fed Chair Warsh faces multiple challenges
The July Fed meeting ended where investors, traders and speculators thought it would: with interest rates unchanged for the fifth straight time but central bankers worried about price stability and the energy shock.
The target range for the federal funds rate remains 3.50% to 3.75%. But three voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) dissented from the decision because they favored raising it by 25 basis points.
"Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace," reads a repeated sentence in a subtly updated but still brief FOMC policy statement, "despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East."
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As Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said during his press conference, "We'll be watching inflation data over the period ahead," but he also said the central bank wouldn't rely exclusively on any one piece of it.
Acknowledging a steep rise in market-based rates over the trailing 42 days, the Fed chair noted shocks the economy seems to be absorbing relatively well so far.
The 2-year Treasury yield, a broad market-based indicator of short-term monetary policy, has climbed from 3.375% on February 27, the day before the war in the Middle East began, to 4.266% as of July 29.
Time released |
Economic report |
Period |
2 pm |
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy statement |
N/A |
2:30 pm |
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference |
N/A |
Thursday (7/30)
Inflation eases, for now
According to the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting tool, headline PCE is tracking negative on a month-over-month basis. Through July 24, the annual rate showed 3.65%.
Core PCE, which removes food and energy prices from the equation, was showing 0.19% MoM and 3.33% year-over-year rates of increase.
The BEA reported 0.4% MoM and 4.1% YoY increases for headline PCE and 0.3% MoM and 3.4% YoY increases for core in May.
So, based on estimates of incoming data, it looks like there will be some short-term relief from the energy shock.
At the same time, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contract rose 37.5% from July 2 through July 23 as tension at the Strait of Hormuz tightened again.
Time released |
Economic report |
Period |
8:30 am |
Weekly jobless claims |
Week ending July 25 |
8:30 am |
Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) |
June |
8:30 am |
Core PCE |
June |
8:30 am |
Gross domestic product (GDP) |
Q2 |
Friday (7/31)
Time released |
Economic report |
Period |
8:30 am |
Employment Cost Index |
Q2 |
9:45 am |
Chicago Business Barometer |
July |
10 am |
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (revised) |
July |
Reporting schedules are provided Forex Factory and MarketWatch.
