What to Look Out for in Economic Data This Week (February 16-20)

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With Kevin Warsh now standing by to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, investors, traders and speculators will parse the minutes from the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of 2026 on Wednesday afternoon for signs of where monetary policy might head come May.

Incoming economic data, meanwhile, continue to validate Powell's evidence-based approach to interest rates ahead of Friday's report on the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE).

Wednesday, February 18: Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes: The FOMC held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% at its January meeting. Markets want to know how members arrived at the decision in terms of employment and inflation and what their deliberations tell us about a post-Powell Fed.

Friday, February 20: Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) and Core PCE: The Fed prefers PCE over the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as a measure of inflation. Following a hot January jobs report, the January CPI report came in cooler than expected, with year-over-year core CPI rising at its slowest pace since March 2021.

Read on to see the entire weekly economic calendar of the most important upcoming economic reports scheduled to be released in the next several days. At times, we provide expanded previews and recaps for select reports.

Please check back often. This economic calendar is updated regularly. Bolded reports are those considered more noteworthy. All reporting times are in Eastern Time.

Reports that have been delayed due to the government shutdown are marked with an asterisk (*).

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Monday (2/16)

Noteworthy economic reports

Time released	Economic report	Period
7:25 am	Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks	N/A

Tuesday (2/17)

Noteworthy economic reports

Time released	Economic report	Period
8:30 am	Empire State Manufacturing Index	February
10 am	NAHB Housing Market Index	February
11:45 am	Fed Governor Michael Barr speaks	N/A
1 pm	San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks	N/A

Wednesday (2/18)

What they said at the FOMC meeting

We'll see what they said during their most recent official gathering on Wednesday afternoon, but members of the Federal Open Market Committee haven't been shy about revealing their preferences for the direction of interest rates in the aftermath of their January meeting

Fed Governor Stephen Miran, nominated by President Donald Trump in August to complete Adriana Kugler's term on the central bank's board and confirmed in September, said again last week that U.S. monetary policymakers should cut the fed funds rate by as much as 100 basis points this year.

Miran, who will remain on the board until a permanent member is nominated and confirmed, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who was on the short list of candidates to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair, dissented from the decision to hold rates steady last month.

Meanwhile, other FOMC members have "largely echoed Chair Powell’s messages from the January FOMC meeting that the current policy stance is well positioned with rates in the range of neutral," as Deutsche Bank economist Amy Yang writes.

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson has advocated prudence with the labor market stable amid temporary inflation caused by tariffs, and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem "reiterated that further easing at this time would be 'unadvisable,' absent further deterioration of the labor market."

Governor Lisa Cook also delivered a "relatively hawkish speech" that emphasized risks are "now skewed towards high inflation." Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is also hawkish and sees no room for cuts this year.

At the same time, Governor Michele Bowman and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly have offered dovish commentary emphasizing risks to the labor market rather than inflation.

Based on the "balance of Fed communications," Yang concludes that the "Fed has entered an extended period of holding rates steady, with the next rate cut likely in September, absent an unexpected weakening of the labor market."

Other noteworthy economic reports

Time released	Economic report	Period
8:30 am	Housing starts*	November, December
8:30 am	Building permits*	November, December
8:30 am	Durable goods orders*	December
8:30 am	Advance U.S. trade balance in goods	December
8:30 am	Advance retail inventories	December
8:30 am	Advance wholesale invetories	December
2 pm	Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes	January

Thursday (2/19)

Noteworthy economic reports

Time released	Economic report	Period
8:30 am	Weekly jobless claims	Week ending February 14
8:30 am	U.S. trade deficit	December
8:30 am	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index	February
9 am	Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks	N/A
10 am	Pending home sales	January

Friday (2/20)

Is inflation running hot or cold?

"The run of subdued PCE inflation prints is likely to snap with the December data," Barclays analyst Pooja Sriram writes, "with headline and core PCE forecast to increase 0.4% month over month."

Year-over-year prints for the Fed's preferred measure of price stability would be 2.9% and 3.0%, respectively. As Sriram notes, fourth-quarter estimates for headline and core are both tracking to 2.8%, "modestly below the Fed's December median projections" of 2.9% and 3.0%, respectively.

The analyst suggests subdued prints were partially a result of the longest-ever government shutdown last fall. "We think the index is due for some payback in 2026, particularly in April," Sriram writes, "when rents/OER CPI are poised for a solid run-up."

The analyst expects core PCE "to settle toward target-consistent levels" in the second half of the year, though the "annual rate is likely to look elevated, due to unfavorable base-effects."

Other noteworthy economic reports

Time released	Economic report	Period
8:30 am	Gross domestic product (GDP)	Q4
8:30 am	Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE)	December
8:30 am	Core PCE	December
9:45 am	S&P Global Flash Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)	February
9:45 am	S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI	February
10 am	New home sales*	November, December
10 am	University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (revised)	February

Reporting schedules are provided Forex Factory and MarketWatch.