A holiday-shortened week is heavy with incoming economic data and highlighted by the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the Kevin Warsh era.
CME FedWatch reflects a 98.5% probability the federal funds rate remains in a range of 3.50% to 3.75% through the June 16-17 meeting. In fact, the trend right now in the fed funds futures market favors a rate hike as opposed to a rate cut.
The fact that Fed Chair Warsh will hold a press conference is noteworthy, given his public statements about trimming the central bank's profile. Markets will pay close attention to what Warsh has to say about inflation and interest rates on Wednesday.
Before the opening bell on Wednesday, markets will process retail sales data for May, with weekly jobless claims due before the opening bell on Thursday.
Note that the U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Friday, June 19, in observance of Juneteenth.
Economic reports we're watching
Wednesday, June 17, FOMC policy statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference: There will be no change to the target range for the federal funds rate following the first FOMC meeting of the Warsh era. There are plenty of issues to talk about in a press conference, though, including war, an energy shock and the fact that President Trump loves "the inflation."
Read on to see the entire weekly economic calendar of the most important upcoming economic reports scheduled to be released in the next several days. At times, we provide expanded previews and recaps for select reports.
Please check back often. This economic calendar is updated regularly. Bolded reports are those considered more noteworthy. All reporting times are in Eastern Time.
Monday (6/15)
Time released |
Economic report |
Period |
8:30 am |
Empire State Manufacturing Index |
June |
9:15 am |
Industrial production |
May |
9:15 am |
Capacity utilization |
May |
10 am |
NAHB Housing Market Index |
June |
Tuesday (6/16)
Time released |
Economic report |
Period |
8:30 am |
Import Price Index |
May |
8:30 am |
Housing starts |
May |
8:30 am |
Building permits |
May |
Wednesday (6/17)
Time released |
Economic report |
Period |
8:30 am |
Retail sales |
May |
10 am |
Pending home sales |
May |
10 am |
Business inventories |
April |
2 pm |
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy statement |
N/A |
2:30 pm |
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference |
N/A |
It's Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first press conference
It's fair to wonder, given what he himself has said, that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first post-FOMC meeting press conference could also be his last post-FOMC meeting press conference.
The new Fed chair thinks central bank communications are too loose, and he plans to do something about it. It hasn't happened yet, though, and investors, traders and speculators will want to know what Warsh does intend to reveal.
Indeed, dot-plots, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and other potential instruments of policy confusion are on the new Fed chair's list for review and removal from a Warsh policy toolkit.
Looking for more timely stock market news to help gauge the health of your portfolio? Sign up for Closing Bell, our free newsletter that's delivered straight to your inbox at the close of each trading day.
The new Fed chair aims to bring more clarity, a mission that was fraught even before President Donald Trump declared "I love the inflation!" following the hottest Consumer Price Index (CPI) print in three years on June 10.
While the president still seems to be stumping for lower interest rates as both consumer and wholesale prices accelerate, market-based measures of near-term Fed policy such as the 2-year Treasury yield are rising.
As much as Warsh wants to keep things closer to his vest, his president continues to make policy choices and public statements that demand more participation and clarification, not less.
Thursday (6/18)
Time released |
Economic report |
Period |
8:30 am |
Weekly jobless claims |
Week ending June 13 |
8:30 am |
Phiuladelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
June |
Friday (6/19)
Note that the U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Friday, June 19, in observance of Juneteenth.
There are no noteworthy economic reports scheduled for release.
Reporting schedules are provided Forex Factory and MarketWatch.
