Kings of third down: Quarterbacks

The most critical play of any offensive series is third down. That’s when you either proceed down the field by making a first down, score a touchdown, or fail and force the offense to either punt or attempt a field goal. There are many  variables on third down with distance and game situation, so only consider the higher level generalities.

For quarterbacks, let break it down a bit and then give it an all-over view. The following stats count the third downs that each player participated and their results. The first down stats include plays that scored touchdowns as they all gained yardage that would have been a first down.

Third-down Rushing

QB – 10+   Attempts	Success	First Downs	Att	Yds/Att	TD
Ryan Tannehill	82%	14	17	5.0	3
Teddy Bridgewater	80%	8	10	5.3	1
Patrick Mahomes	77%	10	13	8.5	0
Baker Mayfield	75%	12	16	5.9	1
Jimmy Garoppolo	73%	11	15	1.9	1
Joe Burrow	70%	7	10	5.9	0
Josh Allen	70%	23	33	8.2	3
Russell Wilson	67%	10	15	5.3	1
Jalen Hurts	67%	22	33	6.8	2
Tom Brady	64%	7	11	3.8	0
Justin Herbert	62%	13	21	7.1	0
Derek Carr	55%	6	11	3.5	0
Sam Darnold	53%	8	15	4.0	2
Carson Wentz	50%	7	14	4.7	1
Kyler Murray	50%	8	16	6.4	1
Lamar Jackson	50%	13	26	5.4	1
Mac Jones	50%	8	16	2.9	0
Justin Fields	47%	9	19	7.1	0
Trevor Lawrence	45%	10	22	5.1	1
Tua Tagovailoa	41%	7	17	4.7	0
Daniel Jones	36%	4	11	4.5	0
Taylor Heinicke	36%	5	14	5.2	0
Matt Ryan	29%	4	14	1.9	0
Dak Prescott	18%	2	11	3.9	0

Notable is that the two quarterbacks with the highest yards per attempt on third downs were Patrick Mahomes (8.5) and Josh Allen (8.2) though Allen led the league with third-down runs (23), followed by Jalen Hurts (22). It is a bit of a surprise that Lamar Jackson was only successful on 50% of his attempts and Dak Prescott’s lack of rushing in 2021 was evident on his bottom rankings on successful runs on third down. For the most part, there were only a couple of quarterbacks that averaged more than one per game.

Third-down passing

Player	Success	First Downs	Cmp	Att	TD	Int	Sack
Matthew Stafford	52%	74	91	141	12	7	14
Patrick Mahomes	51%	75	97	147	13	8	12
Justin Herbert	47%	79	105	169	13	5	10
Joe Burrow	47%	61	95	131	8	5	21
Tua Tagovailoa	45%	45	59	99	6	4	12
Jimmy Garoppolo	45%	49	69	108	6	4	12
Tom Brady	45%	73	100	163	17	3	10
Josh Allen	45%	69	86	155	15	6	11
Mac Jones	44%	59	85	133	8	5	13
Aaron Rodgers	44%	59	84	135	13	2	12
Dak Prescott	43%	63	90	145	12	2	12
Matt Ryan	43%	67	101	155	8	3	17
Kyler Murray	43%	48	71	112	11	2	11
Ryan Tannehill	41%	66	109	161	7	10	19
Kirk Cousins	40%	66	100	163	13	3	14
Derek Carr	40%	57	87	143	7	6	18
Russell Wilson	40%	41	53	103	8	3	16
Ben Roethlisberger	39%	70	117	181	8	4	11
Jalen Hurts	38%	41	58	108	5	3	12
Carson Wentz	38%	52	77	137	10	1	14
Davis Mills	36%	40	70	110	6	5	15
Daniel Jones	36%	35	55	97	2	0	9
Lamar Jackson	36%	31	49	86	5	6	14
Trevor Lawrence	36%	55	78	153	2	3	12
Teddy Bridgewater	35%	42	80	121	6	2	9
Taylor Heinicke	34%	44	71	128	6	6	12
Baker Mayfield	34%	34	50	99	3	5	17
Zach Wilson	34%	34	52	100	3	3	23
Jared Goff	34%	38	72	113	4	3	16
Sam Darnold	33%	36	62	108	2	3	15
Justin Fields	28%	21	38	74	1	6	12

If you need more proof as to the importance of the quarterback, consider that 12 of the Top-14 most successful passers on third down were all in the playoffs. If you’re trying to find the rookies, just look at the bottom. Tom Brady (17) and Josh Allen (15) were the best at scoring a touchdown on third down and not needing to kick a field goal.

The percentage of passing success is lower than rushing because the yards to gain were much more. There are also fewer rushing than passing attempts on third downs involving quarterbacks.

It should also be noted that while Joe Burrow managed success on over half of his third downs, his 21 sacks were second only to Zach Wilson (23). An upgrade to the blocking might make Zach Wilson flirt with being average, but the same improvement could vault Burrow into the top of this measurement.

It is also interesting that while Ryan Tannehill was successful running on third downs (while the defense followed Derrick Henry), but he wasn’t nearly as successful passing the ball. This single-play measurement is the best at determining the effectiveness of a quarterback.

Third-down overall

QB – 90+   Third Downs	Success	Third Downs	First Downs	Passes	Comp	First Downs	Runs	First Downs
Patrick Mahomes	53%	160	85	147	97	75	13	10
Matthew Stafford	52%	148	77	141	91	74	7	3
Josh Allen	49%	188	92	155	86	69	33	23
Jimmy Garoppolo	49%	123	60	108	69	49	15	11
Justin Herbert	48%	190	92	169	105	79	21	13
Joe Burrow	48%	141	68	131	95	61	10	7
Tom Brady	46%	174	80	163	100	73	11	7
Mac Jones	45%	149	67	133	85	59	16	8
Ryan Tannehill	45%	178	80	161	109	66	17	14
Tua Tagovailoa	45%	116	52	99	59	45	17	7
Aaron Rodgers	45%	141	63	135	84	59	6	4
Jalen Hurts	45%	141	63	108	58	41	33	22
Kyler Murray	44%	128	56	112	71	48	16	8
Russell Wilson	43%	118	51	103	53	41	15	10
Matt Ryan	42%	169	71	155	101	67	14	4
Dak Prescott	42%	156	65	145	90	63	11	2
Derek Carr	41%	154	63	143	87	57	11	6
Kirk Cousins	40%	167	67	163	100	66	4	1
Baker Mayfield	40%	115	46	99	50	34	16	12
Lamar Jackson	39%	112	44	86	49	31	26	13
Ben Roethlisberger	39%	184	72	181	117	70	3	2
Carson Wentz	39%	151	59	137	77	52	14	7
Teddy Bridgewater	38%	131	50	121	80	42	10	8
Trevor Lawrence	37%	175	65	153	78	55	22	10
Davis Mills	37%	116	43	110	70	40	6	3
Daniel Jones	36%	108	39	97	55	35	11	4
Sam Darnold	36%	123	44	108	62	36	15	8
Zach Wilson	35%	109	38	100	52	34	9	4
Taylor Heinicke	35%	142	49	128	71	44	14	5
Jared Goff	33%	117	39	113	72	38	4	1
Justin Fields	32%	93	30	74	38	21	19	9

Sort of telling that the four quarterbacks that were in the Conference Championships were also the best four on third down. This also shows the variation between what makes an NFL quarterback valuable to his team versus his fantasy value. Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson were much better fantasy starters than they were third-down quarterbacks.

Mac Jones further shows his value as a rookie placing at No. 8 in this third-down metric. Losing his offensive coordinator probably won’t help this year, but the Patriots’ system will remain at least in part.

Kyler Murray did not fare as well here, but he was injured along with many of his teammates this year. But the young guns of the NFL all show up with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Joe Burrow well represented.