With the exception of the 2021/22 campaign, Kilmarnock have spent the best part of 30-years in Scotland’s top flight.
It’s fair to say Killie belong amongst the country’s elite.
Relegation during the Covid season was a bitter pill for supporters to swallow. With fans locked out of stadiums, it was tough to sit helplessly from home and watch the utter disaster unfurl under Alex Dyer and Tommy Wright.
While it wasn’t pretty, last season’s objective was simple: win promotion. Derek McInnes was appointed in January this year and within four-months turned the club’s fortunes around.
‘Alston won the league at Rugby Park,’ supporters sang for months after that famous title winning night against Arbroath back in April.
However, unless the pressing issues facing the Ayrshire side in the Premiership are addressed by McInnes & Co. then a quickfire return to the Championship sadly beckons.
Killie sit in the relegation play-off spot on 15-points, just three above basement boys Dundee United, who now have a game-in-hand. Killie also have the worst goal difference in the division.
They lost their first match back after the enforced winter break against Hearts, making it four defeats in their last five games. This was probably the expected outcome, but the manner of the first-half performance was deeply concerning – an all too familiar sight this term. Two defensive mistakes gifted the hosts two goals. It could’ve been more. Things improved after the break, but that wouldn’t have been difficult.
There are various factors for Killie’s poor form in the league. Although, the obvious reason appears to be an unsettled team and formation.
Just once, in all the club’s 23 competitive domestic games this term, has McInnes elected to play the same team in back-to-back fixtures.
On the face of it, that’s a major problem. Fans are certainly confused every week as to why so many changes to the personnel are constantly made. But it’s not just the players that have been tinkered with countless times, it’s the formations too. Killie have lined up in a 3-5-2, a 4-3-3, a 4-2-3-1, a 4-5-1 and even a 3-3-3-1.
I’m the furthest thing from a tactical expert, however, these decisions don’t seem conducive to the consistency levels required to survive in the Premiership.
Don’t get me wrong, there have been occasions where said changes to the starting XI have proved successful. Beating Hibs prior to the World Cup probably being the outstanding example after being demolished by Dundee United just a few days before.
No Killie manager should be judged against Steve Clarke. The Scotland boss was in a different stratosphere to the level of coaches the club has employed in its modern history.
But Clarke always spoke about keeping things simple. You could predict his line-up every week. This helped to create a well-oiled machine and total understanding throughout. Also, the occasions when players were played out of position were few and far between. A return to anything resembling this model surely points to greater chances of success.
The obvious defence McInnes has is that too many of his squad are not good enough.
That’s not new information, mind you. It was clear during the summer that the player pool was bloated with Championship players. That’s nothing against any member of the team, far from it. But it’s just the harsh reality of football.
One transfer window was never going to fix that, though. Killie need to hope that two might.
The upcoming January period is critical for the club’s survival hopes. There is simply no room for sentiment – McInnes must shift out the hefty amount of dead wood and try to bring in quality, not quantity. Since his arrival, the manager has been hamstrung by sub-standard players on two-year deals which were handed out by the previous regime.
Unlike during the summer, McInnes will be heavily assisted by Killie’s new recruitment chief, Russ Richardson. He’s been in post since September after some restructuring behind the scenes at Rugby Park. He was McInnes’ trusted top scout at Aberdeen, helping to unearth several gems during their time together.
Some will point out that McInnes recruited double figures during pre-season, but his main strengths clearly lie in management. Richardson hasn’t been in the door for long, he’s at least had the chance to lay the groundwork for what is a crucial four-weeks coming up. At least five or six new players are required, the majority of which need to be starters. I’d expect to see a larger number leave.
The return of Kyle Lafferty in four-games’ time could be a gamechanger. His stupidity has undoubtedly cost the club dearly. His absence has been felt in every game of his lengthy ban so far, with Killie’s sole goal threat coming at set pieces.
The Northern Ireland international was hitting peak form as he was ruled out for ten-games in October. Had he been available for selection these past six-games, Killie’s predicament would likely be considerably brighter. He’s the best striker at the club and the sooner he’s back, the better - especially with the upcoming League Cup semi-final next month, the club's first trip to Hampden in over a decade.
The re-emergence of Scott Robinson after nearly one-year out through injury was one positive to take from Tynecastle at the weekend. He too could be like a new signing once up to full match sharpness. The nippy frontman could be the perfect foil for Lafferty among the much-needed January additions.
Next up is Motherwell away. Killie have taken just one point from 27 on the road this season. Therein lies another major flaw. They’ve not won away in the league since March when they defeated Ayr in the derby.
McInnes is proud of his team’s strong home record. They’ve only lost to Celtic, Livingston and Ayr at Rugby Park during his time and have amassed 93 percent of their points this term in Ayrshire. But he will know full well that Killie’s dismal away form could be their ultimate undoing.
Ending their hoodoo away from home at Fir Park will pave the way for a good run over the festive period, with two home matches to follow.
Regardless, the season hinges on the next six-weeks. If these issues are addressed, Killie can more than hold their own against United, County, Motherwell et al. If not, the drop is a very real threat.
