The Kansas City Chiefs begin their road to Super Bowl defense today in their season opener against the Detroit Lions. The 2023 Lions are not the same unserious team from seasons past. Detroit possesses a high-powered offense and an improving defense after aggressively making moves to add talent at key positions in the offseason.
Kansas City, on the other hand, may host the reigning MVP but has also been mired in a contract dispute with its best defensive player, Chris Jones, who is set to hold out through the Chiefs’ first week of the new season.
Buy Chiefs TicketsDespite the ongoing drama with Jones, Kansas City remains the favored squad for this matchup. Given that the Week 1 tilt will be played at Arrowhead Stadium, fans can expect something special from Patrick Mahomes when the Chiefs take the field tonight.
Let’s take a look at key factors heading into the contest, and what Kansas City must do to win:
Create pressure on Jared Goff and contain the run
Jared Goff has proven to be one of the league’s best pocket quarterbacks over the course of his career. The 28-year-old can tear defenses apart, and when he is operating within a clean pocket, he is lethal.
Last season, when not facing pressure, Goff completed 69.7 percent of his passes for 24 touchdowns and six interceptions, while attempting 7.9 yards per pass with a 104.5 passer rating. These stats ranked fifth in the NFL with a minimum of 300 attempts.
This reason alone is why Chris Jones’ expected absence from this contest could be a critical factor in the game’s final outcome. Goff’s lack of athleticism and mobility can hinder his performance, but there has to be pressure to exploit that.
Over the last five seasons, the difference in the effectiveness of Kansas City’s pass rush is drastic with Jones on the field as compared to when he is on the sideline.
When Jones is on the field, Kansas City manufactures quarterback pressure 35 percent of the time, ranking first in the NFL. When Jones is off the field, the Chiefs pressure quarterbacks on 27 percent of snaps, dropping to 28th in the league.
Detroit’s offensive line is one of the best units in the league, and without Jones, do not expect any interior penetration.
The pass rush is not the only aspect of the game that Jones affects. The 29-year-old defensive tackle is also a crucial part of Kansas City’s run defense, and the Lions have proven to be very effective in the running game.
With David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs in the backfield, Detroit could continually gash the Chiefs’ defense on the ground and effectively Kansas City’s offense off the field.
George Karlaftis, Felix Anudike-Uzomah, and others will have to step up against a well-run offense that can dominate up front and in the trenches.
Establish the run early and often
If the Chiefs are overmatched with Jones missing the game, it is important that Kansas City’s offense counters that by controlling the time of possession. A steady dose of the run game would keep the Lions’ offense off the field while keeping Detroit’s defense on its toes to set Patrick Mahomes up with favorable looks off of play-action.
Given the weapons that Mahomes has at his disposal, an established ground game would not allow Detroit’s defense to concentrate all its efforts on the pass-catching options in the offense.
This aspect of the offense will be magnified if Travis Kelce is unable to suit up for Thursday. The 33-year-old tight end hyperextended his knee during practice on Tuesday.
Handing the ball to Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon consistently will keep the linebackers’ and safeties’ eyes in the backfield, giving receivers a better shot at exploiting open areas of the field.
Contain Amon-Ra St. Brown
With the likes of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Sam LaPorta, Jared Goff has a number of weapons he can depend on in certain situations. However, two of those top options are rookies, and St. Brown is clearly the best receiver the Lions have on their roster.
Detroit’s 2022 first-round pick, Jameson Williams, is suspended for the first six games of the Lions’ regular season, and without him, their offense is missing a true field stretcher. St. Brown primarily operates between the numbers, and while he is absolutely capable of getting himself open, having a weapon like Wiliams would force Kansas City’s safeties to drop back in coverage regularly.
Steve Spagnuolo may feel more inclined to either double St. Brown or always have an accompanying safety with the corner that is covering the 23-year-old wideout. Trent McDuffie could be assigned to follow St. Brown all over the field, whether in the slot or on the outside.
Of course, it is easier said than done because Gibbs and LaPorta have proved during training camp that they can also be reliable in the passing game. Nonetheless, the root of all the potential problems for Kansas City’s secondary in this game starts with St. Brown.
Chiefs' wide receivers will need to step up in the passing game
As mentioned earlier, Kelce hyperextended his knee during practice on Tuesday and his status for Thursday night’s season opener is uncertain. The “next-man-up” mentality has been a repeated phrase this past week given Chris Jones’ continued absence from team activities, and that same mindset will be utilized by the offense if Kelce is relegated to the bench.
Promising receiver Kadarius Toney has fully recovered from the torn meniscus he suffered early in training camp and will be depended on even more with Kelce off the field.
Skyy Moore has stood out in training camp but was a non-factor in the preseason in limited snaps. Nonetheless, the second-year wideout has built chemistry with Mahomes this offseason and will need to carry that connection over to week one if he intends to have a breakout start to his 2023 campaign.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling proved to be a reliable option in the AFC Championship game when Kansas City was down to second and third-string receivers. The 28-year-old receiver could see a significant share of Kansas City’s targets in week one as the Chiefs lean on his veteran presence and big frame.
Rashee Rice could be thrown into the fire quite quickly, and although he struggled with drops during the preseason, Rice is another big-bodied receiver who can be effective in specific situations.
When Kelce is on the field, Mahomes spreads the ball around, while giving Kelce the most targets. If Kelce is not out there on Thursday, expect the ball to be spread around even more frequently.
