The Green Bay Packers (6-8) and Miami Dolphins (8-6) will do battle in a fascinating matchup between two playoff hopefuls trending in the opposite directions entering Week 16.
The Packers have won two straight and revived their postseason aspirations; the Dolphins have lost three straight after an 8-3 start and are now holding on for dear life in the AFC.
Which will team score a major win at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on Christmas Day?
Here are the keys to victory for the Packers against the Dolphins in Week 16:
Tackle, tackle, tackle
Tyreek Hill. Jaylen Waddle. Raheem Mostert. Mike Gesicki. Jeff Wilson. The Packers will either tackle consistently on Sunday or get run out of the building by one of the most explosive group of skill players in the NFL. Hill and Waddle might be the fastest one-two punch at receiver in the NFL, and all Packers fans should be well aware of Mostert’s game-breaking abilities. This is a tremendous group of players who can create with the ball in their hands. Expect the Packers to play it safe in the passing game in an effort to keep everything in front. The strategy is fine, but it requires rallying to the ball and making every tackle. In the run game, the Packers can afford zero breakdowns because Mostert and Wilson are capable of turning a routine run to the second level into a touchdown in an instant. If the Packers are to pull off the upset, tackling well is an absolute must.
Disrupt, disrupt, disrupt
The Packers defense produced one of its most disruptive performances of the season against the Rams on Monday night, tallying five sacks and nine quarterback hits while allowing only 156 total yards. Can the front recreate the performance in Miami? The best way to slow down an explosive offense is consistently winning at the line of scrimmage. The Packers need Kenny Clark, Preston Smith, Kingsley Enagbare, Jarran Reed and whomever else is playing up front to lead the way for 60 minutes on Sunday. And don’t forget about the perimeter; this is a terrific opportunity to play more press-man coverage and disrupt what the Dolphins like to do in the short, quick passing game. Disrupting Tua when he’s trying to find explosive plays downfield and disrupting a talented group of receivers at the line of scrimmage will be huge for the Packers on Sunday. The Dolphins have struggled to score (and, as a result, struggled to win) in games without big plays in the passing game this season.
Big performance from OL
The Packers mostly dominated the Bears and Rams up front on offense in the last two games. The Dolphins are far more talented and will provide a much more difficult test on Sunday. Jaelen Phillips (60 pressures), Christian Wilkins (25), Bradley Chubb (21 in six games since trade), Melvin Ingram (34) and Zach Sieler (26) are an impressive group in the front seven. By PFF grade, the Dolphins pass-rush ranks third in the NFL. David Bakhtiari isn’t expected to play, so the offensive line will be Zach Tom, Elgton Jenkins, Josh Myers, Jon Runyan Jr. and Yosh Nijman in Miami. Is this group up to the task? Keep in mind: the Packers have played six teams in the top 10 for PFF pass-rush grade this season and are 1-5 in those games, with the lone win coming against the Cowboys.
Keisean. Nixon.
Keisean Nixon has three kickoff returns of at least 50 yards since taking over as the primary returner. He’s increasingly confident and explosive with the ball in his hands, and the Packers trust in him to make something happen on every return. Sunday would be the perfect opportunity for him to turn a game on its head with a special teams touchdown. Consider this: the Dolphins rank last in the NFL in opponent kickoff return average (27.6), and Miami gave up one of the three kickoff return touchdowns in the NFL this season. How do upsets happen on the road? Special teams usually are involved, and the Packers now have a legit, game-breaking weapon in Nixon to throw at the favorites.
Dillon and Watson
Aaron Jones is dynamic and should be featured, but he’s been dealing with lingering aches and pains and may need help to get through the contest. Enter A.J. Dillon, who has rushed for a touchdown in three straight games, and Christian Watson, arguably the most important player on the offense besides the quarterback. Dillon will be important to wearing down Miami’s front, extending drives and winning time of possession; Watson is the catalyst for big plays and a touchdown-maker, and his speed opens up everything for the offense. It’s no coincidence that the Packers offense has suddenly come alive now that Dillon and Watson are producing. They need to bring the thunder and lightning to the Miami defense on Sunday, especially if the game turns into a track meet.
