An explosive report spelling out how the Conservative government failed to prepare the country for the Covid-19 pandemic as it obsessed about Brexit is to be released before the likely date of the next general election, the Observer has been told.
In a move that will cause alarm in Downing Street, Heather Hallett’s independent Covid-19 inquiry will issue a detailed interim report “before the summer” on the first batch of public hearings held last June and July, which revealed a catalogue of errors, including the lack of PPE and failures to act on recommendations of previous pandemic planning exercises.
The first part of the inquiry also showed how pandemic planning fell victim to years of Tory austerity, and how later the Covid-19 threat was downplayed because ministers were preoccupied with trying to avoid the worst effects of a possible no-deal Brexit.
Details of Lady Hallett’s timetable, and her determination to publish reports and recommendations as soon as possible after hearings end rather than waiting years, as in previous public inquiries, come as bereaved families demand that voters can hold ministers to account on Covid when they cast their ballots on polling day.
Rivka Gottlieb, spokesperson for the Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice UK, said the inquiry’s reports “must be released as soon as possible so they can be put into action to protect us from a future pandemic”.
She added that as much as possible should be released before an election so that political parties “can be held to account, including on the recommendations in their manifestos”.
There will, however, be relief at the highest levels of government that a second report from Hallett – into the political decision-making during the pandemic (module 2) – will not now be published until early 2025, after the last possible date for an election.
During the module 2 hearings, both Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson were questioned on the government’s chaotic handling of Covid-19, including Sunak’s failure to consult scientists over his controversial “eat out to help out” scheme and Johnson’s failure to attend Cobra meetings on the pandemic.
Johnson’s closest aide, Dominic Cummings, was also quizzed over his numerous foul-mouthed WhatsApp messages, which shone a light on the dysfunction at the heart of government.
The timing of the first Hallett report will, however, create yet another headache for Sunak as he agonises over when to call a general election.
A highly critical set of conclusions and a string of far-reaching recommendations from an independent inquiry set up by the government would, one former minister said, “be a grim and challenging backdrop” against which to launch a campaign.
Sources at the inquiry said that although the first report would not be published during an actual election campaign (normally about six weeks), given the political nature of the subject matter, it would otherwise definitely come before the summer.
Last week, Sunak attempted to damp down speculation about a May election, saying his “working assumption” was that one would be held in the autumn.
But many senior figures in Whitehall believe he could still revert to May so that he can join the battle for votes off the back of a tax-cutting budget in early March and before too much bad news on other fronts piles up, such as a first Hallett report, most likely poor council election results in May and the prospect of more small boats crossing the Channel in the spring and summer months.
One senior source said: “This is another reason that May must still be on the table. Plenty of people think it is still the most likely option, despite what Sunak said.”
During the first public hearings, the release of a letter from early 2019 sent by England’s chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, to Sir Chris Wormald, the permanent secretary at the Department of Health and Social Care, showed that almost 20 work streams on pandemic planning were stopped or reduced because resources had to be shifted to focus on planning for a no-deal Brexit.
On the first day of the hearings last June, Hugo Keith KC, counsel to the inquiry, stated that planning for a no-deal Brexit had “crowded out and prevented” the work that was needed to prepare for a pandemic.
The inquiry also heard how Public Health England (PHE), the body responsible for keeping the nation healthy during Covid, suffered significant budget cuts in the years running up to the pandemic. Jenny Harries, chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency, said that over PHE’s eight-year life, central government funding was cut by 40% in real terms.
In its concluding statement at the end of the first module, the British Medical Association said: “After six weeks of hearings, it is clear that the UK entered the pandemic with critically underresourced and underfunded health and public health services, and that there were repeated failures in pandemic planning and preparedness, including in relation to the PPE stockpile and the implementation of recommendations and learning from previous pandemic planning exercises.
“These failures gravely hampered the pandemic response and placed doctors, other healthcare workers and patients at increased risk when the pandemic hit.”
Sources aware of Hallett’s thinking said she was very clear that she did not want the inquiry to run and run, not least because the country needed to learn lessons as swiftly as possible, with another pandemic possible at any time. She believed the public deserved a serious, comprehensive and timely inquiry which delivered clear recommendations upon which the relevant authorities could act if they judged it right to do so.
Public hearings will resume in Edinburgh on 16 January, when issues of core decision-making and political governance in Scotland will be examined.
