The unprecedented seems to have become almost routine in US politics in recent years – but we have reached another such moment. The removal of Kevin McCarthy as speaker of the house of representatives in congress is the first time someone has been forced out of the role in US history.
It is a pivotal moment because of the key role the speaker plays in US politics and the removal leaves the Republicans in a state of disarray.
What does the speaker do and why is the role so important?
The US congress contains two chambers, the house of representatives, the lower chamber, and the senate, the upper chamber. The speaker is the one that oversees the house of representatives. They are traditionally a member of the majority party of the chamber, currently the Republicans, although this isn't a requirement. In fact, the speaker does not have to come from inside the house of representatives at all.
On a practical level, the speaker sets the agenda for the house, controls assignments onto committees that monitor US politics, sets up votes and is generally responsible for keeping their party united behind its political agenda. The position is one of the most important in Washington. That is made clear by where the speaker sits in the presidential line of succession – the order of who will take charge of the White House if the current president becomes unable to do the job. The speaker is behind only the vice president of the United States, in line to take over the presidency if both the president and vice president are unable to perform their duties.
Depending on the partisan makeup of Congress – whether Republicans or the Democrats are in control – they can make or break a US president's agenda, stymie opposition to initiatives, and spearhead their party's biggest legislative plans.
An effective speaker is key to their party. Successes in pushing through legislation can obviously be touted to voters at election time, while keeping a party united and behind the parties objectives can create a formidable force that propels candidates to success at the ballot box.
Why has Kevin McCarthy been removed?
The house of representatives functions on a two-year cycle, known as a "session". This latest session began on 3 January 2023, with the first job being to vote for a speaker. McCarthy had already created his own bit of history by needing 15 attempts at a vote to gain the majority of votes from the more than 400 legislators in the house he needed. It was the longest speakership battle since 1859, with McCarthy eventually squeaking in 216 votes 212 (all Democrats) with a number of Republicans merely voting "present"..
That should have been a harbinger of what was to come, with Republicans holding a slim majority of less than 10 in the chamber and with right-wing members of the party a number of them staunch supporters of Donald Trump – happy to make trouble.
Indeed, in order to get the votes required to be speaker, McCarthy made deals with the hard-right holdouts by agreeing to a series of demands — including a rules change that allowed any single legislation to file the motion to vacate, the method used to remove a speaker.
Matters came to a head by McCarthy's decision this past weekend to work with Democrats to push through a temporary spending bill to keep the government working, rather than risk a shutdown as allocated money ran out.
The motion to vacate was offered by Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida, an ally of Donald Trump. House leadership tried to stop the motion being debated. but McCarthy was eventually voted out by a margin of 216 to 210, with seven legislators not voting. 208 of 212 Democrats backed the motion to remove, alongside eight Republicans (three Republicans did not vote). That was enough to tip the scales
What happens now?
The rules of this session of congress state that "in the case of a vacancy in the office of speaker, the next member" named on a list submitted by McCarthy when he took the post will become temporary speaker until a new speaker is elected. A House reading clerk announced immediately after the vote that Representative Patrick McHenry of North Carolina was the first name on McCarthy's list and therefore was appointed speaker pro tempore.
Representative Steve Scalise of Louisiana, currently the number two Republican in the house, has been mentioned as McCarthy’s potential successor. Scalise is currently undergoing chemotherapy treatment for blood cancer, but Florida's Gaetz suggested he would not be against him.
“I am not going to pass over Steve Scalise just because he has blood cancer,” Gaetz said.
Asked if he was physically up to the job, Scalise said, “I feel great.”
But there is no timeline set yet for a vote for speaker.
How does Donald Trump fit into all of this?
Acolytes of the former president, who is facing a number of legal cases against him, were quick to mention Donald Trump as a possible candidate for speaker. Trump – the clear Republican frontrunner for the 2024 presidential race as it stands – has complained about the party fighting among itself, but has said he does not want the job.
However, that is unlikely to stop a Republican seeking to nominate him. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia has already taken to social media urging support for Trump as “our speaker.”
Given the chaos around Trump, with a number of court appearances expected across four cases across the next 12 months and beyond, Trump is likely the last person Republican house leadership would want trying to steer the ship.
