Kenya's Deadly Floods: Causes, Impacts, And Forecast

A family uses a boat after fleeing floodwaters that wreaked havoc in the Githurai area of Nairobi, Kenya, April 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Patrick Ngugi, File)

Since March, Kenya has been grappling with catastrophic floods and heavy rains, marking one of the most devastating periods in recent memory. The latest government figures report at least 169 fatalities and 91 individuals still missing due to the deluge.

One of the most tragic incidents occurred in southwestern Kenya, where a blocked river tunnel under a railway line gave way to a flash flood, claiming the lives of at least 48 people. The relentless rain has displaced over 190,000 individuals and caused extensive damage to roads and infrastructure across the country.

Understanding the Causes

The severe weather conditions in Kenya are a result of a combination of factors, including the country's seasonal weather patterns, human-induced climate change, and natural weather phenomena.

Kenya's Rainfall Seasons

At least 169 fatalities and 91 missing individuals have been reported.

Kenya has experienced devastating floods and heavy rains since March.

A blocked river tunnel collapse led to a flash flood, causing 48 deaths.

Over 190,000 people have been displaced, and infrastructure damage is widespread.

The severe weather results from seasonal patterns, climate change, and natural phenomena.

Kenya's 'long rains' season from March to May is known for heavy downpours.

The Indian Ocean Dipole influences rainfall patterns in the region.

The positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole and climate change drive current floods.

Kenya experiences two primary rainfall periods: the 'long rains' season from March to May and the 'short rains' season from October to December. The 'long rains' season, known for its torrential downpours, accounts for the majority of the country's annual rainfall.

Intensified Rainfall

This year's 'long rains' season has been particularly intense, with above-average rainfall predicted by the Kenya Meteorological Department. The Indian Ocean Dipole, a climate system affecting sea surface temperatures, plays a significant role in influencing rainfall patterns in the region.

While some attribute the floods to the El Nino weather phenomenon, experts suggest that the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole and climate change are the primary drivers of the current flood-inducing rainfall in Kenya.

Future Outlook

Predicting the end of the 'long rains' season has become increasingly challenging due to shifting weather patterns. The Kenya Meteorological Department anticipates the rains to persist into June, with heavy downpours expected in various regions, raising concerns about flooding and landslides.

As the country grapples with the aftermath of these devastating floods, the need for proactive measures to mitigate the impact of such extreme weather events becomes more pressing.