LEXINGTON, Ky. — The most important stretch of prep races for the 2022 Kentucky Derby is finally here.
Starting with the Louisiana Derby on Saturday, the calendar over the next few weekends will be filled with win-and-you’re-in showcases featuring the top 3-year-olds in the country.
In all, eight races over the next three Saturdays will deliver 100 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner, with 40 points going to second place, 20 to third, and 10 to fourth. Traditionally, the first- and second-place finishers of each of those races accumulate enough points to make the Derby starting gate, and a third- or fourth-place showing can often be enough to boost contenders into that top-20 range in the standings.
The Louisiana Derby will be the first major prep race, followed by the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby next weekend, then the Blue Grass Stakes, Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial on April 9. The UAE Derby on Saturday and next weekend’s Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park will also deliver 100 points to the winner and could produce a Kentucky Derby starter or two. And the Sunland Derby this Sunday will offer 50 qualifying points to its winner.
So, this will be the stretch when that Kentucky Derby field gets straightened out.
Going into these major prep races, here’s a look at the top 10 contenders for the Kentucky Derby on May 7 — featuring the first rankings of our 2022 Derby Watch series — with the latest futures odds from the Caesars Sportsbook.
1. SMILE HAPPY
Caesars Odds: 10-1.
Trainer: Kenny McPeek.
Why he’s here: Smile Happy hasn’t won a race in 2022, but he still holds the top spot on this list heading into the prep season’s most important stretch. Trained by Lexington native Kenny McPeek, the son of sprint champion and fan favorite Runhappy broke his maiden at Keeneland last fall, then won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes — the premier 2-year-old race at Churchill Downs — in November. In that one, Smile Happy beat Classic Causeway, White Abarrio and Call Me Midnight, three horses that have won big Derby preps this year. Smile Happy finished second in his only start of 2022 to date, a runner-up showing to Epicenter in the Risen Star Stakes in New Orleans. It was still a great effort off a nearly three-month layoff, and he looked every bit a top Derby contender who could be trending toward a peak at just the right time, rallying up for second between horses after a less-than-ideal trip. Smile Happy fired off a bullet work at Gulfstream Park over the weekend, going 5 furlongs in :58.81.
What’s next? McPeek revealed Monday that he will run Smile Happy in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 9.
2. EPICENTER
Caesars Odds: 8-1.
Trainer: Steve Asmussen.
Why he’s here: Epicenter, who broke his maiden at Churchill Downs in November, was nipped at the wire by Call Me Midnight in his 2022 debut after setting the early pace and dueling with Pappacap in the stretch. Next time out — in the Risen Star Stakes, against arguably the best Derby prep field yet — Epicenter was able to rest a little easier on the lead, run clear of his rivals, and romp home for a decisive, 2 3/4-length victory. The son of Not This Time earned a 98 Beyer Speed Figure for that run, which is third only to the Bob Baffert-trained Messier and Taiba among 3-year-olds so far this year. There’s still some question on how he’ll handle the competition if he’s challenged early on Derby Day — or if he can be as effective from just off the pace — but that Risen Star run was certainly one of the best prep performances so far. Epicenter has achieved bullet works at Fair Grounds in each of the last two weeks before a warm-up over the track Monday morning, and he could be the colt who finally delivers a first Kentucky Derby victory for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, who is a record 0 for 23 with starters in the race.
What’s next? He’ll stay home in New Orleans as the favorite in this weekend’s Louisiana Derby, which will feature a rematch with Call Me Midnight.
3. FORBIDDEN KINGDOM
Caesars Odds: 11-2.
Trainer: Richard Mandella.
Why he’s here: Forbidden Kingdom looked like an absolute star in the San Vicente Stakes on Jan. 29, but that race was only 7 furlongs. Could he win at two turns? The answer was a resounding “yes,” with the son of Triple Crown champ American Pharoah dominating the San Felipe on March 5, turning in a 98 Beyer in the process. In that one, he ran the first half-mile in :45.90 and the first 6 furlongs in 1:10.46, opening up a lead of 7 lengths relatively early in the race. If he does that on Derby Day, he’s liable to get swallowed up in the Churchill Downs stretch. How that style will play — and whether he can back off the pace a little in the early going — is one of a few questions still worth asking. Can he get the 1 1/4 miles? How will he do in Louisville after racing exclusively in southern California so far? And how will he fare against top competition? He has Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella in his corner, and that last question should get a clearer answer in a couple of weeks when Forbidden Kingdom faces Messier in the most-buzzed-about matchup on the 2022 prep calendar.
What’s next? The Santa Anita Derby on April 9.
4. SIMPLIFICATION
Caesars Odds: 8-1.
Trainer: Antonio Sano.
Why he’s here: Simplification missed the start in the Holy Bull Stakes in early February, then ran wide all the way around before making a move and staying up for second behind White Abarrio. Things ended better in the Fountain of Youth Stakes last month, when the son of Not This Time settled into the middle of the pack before making another wide move and impressively running away with the victory, winning by 3 1/2 lengths as the 5-2 favorite in what looked to be a strong field coming in. (That race was marred by an incident in which two horses went down, so be prepared if you watch the replay. Thankfully, neither suffered any injuries). Not being forwardly placed on Derby Day always brings a risk of a bad trip, but Simplification has shown he can overcome adversity and looked great in the Gulfstream Park stretch last time out. Going into the Kentucky Derby, all seven of his career starts will have come at Gulfstream.
What’s next? The Florida Derby on April 2, when he’ll get another shot at White Abarrio.
5. CLASSIC CAUSEWAY
Caesars Odds: 12-1.
Trainer: Brian Lynch.
Why he’s here: Last fall, Classic Causeway finished third in the Breeders’ Futurity — the top 2-year-old race at Keeneland — then finished second in the Kentucky Jockey Club, the premier juvenile race at Churchill Downs. This year, he was the king of the Tampa Bay prep circuit, winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby to put himself atop the Kentucky Derby points standings heading into the biggest part of the prep season. The son of Giant’s Causeway absolutely exploded out of the gate in both starts this year — always helpful in the crowded field on Derby Day — but he didn’t exactly put his competition away in the Tampa Bay Derby, and his speed figures (an 84 that day) have been a cut below the top contenders in this group. Still, you can’t argue with the final results. Looking forward to the matchup with a little better competition next time out.
What’s next? The Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 9, a race that regains Grade 1 status this year and should draw one of the top fields on the prep calendar.
6. ZANDON
Caesars Odds: 15-1.
Trainer: Chad Brown.
Why he’s here: Zandon finished second to Mo Donegal in the Remsen Stakes last December following a thrilling stretch duel that led to an inquiry and appeal (but no change in results). Following an 11-week layoff, the son of Upstart returned for his 3-year-old debut in the Risen Star Stakes, where he missed the break and didn’t have the best of trips after that but still managed to get third place behind Epicenter and Smile Happy, the two top Kentucky Derby contenders on this list. Four-time Eclipse Award winner Chad Brown remains high on Zandon, who has turned in nice workouts in Florida over the past two Saturday mornings. If he makes the Derby field, he’ll go into Churchill Downs with four starts at four different tracks: Belmont Park, Aqueduct, Fair Grounds and Keeneland.
What’s next? He’s being pointed toward the Blue Grass Stakes on April 9.
7. WHITE ABARRIO
Caesars Odds: 15-1.
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Why he’s here: White Abarrio ran a great race and had everything break his way in the Holy Bull, winning that by 4 1/2 lengths after never being challenged in the stretch. The son of Race Day is now 3 for 3 at Gulfstream Park, with his only career defeat coming at Churchill Downs: a third-place showing behind Smile Happy and Classic Causeway last fall. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., who had Ny Traffic in the Kentucky Derby two years ago, decided to skip the Fountain of Youth and go straight to the Florida Derby with White Abarrio, who will likely need at least a third-place finish (and possibly a runner-up) to get enough points for the Derby on May 7. The gray colt’s grandsire is Tapit, and his damsire is Into Mischief, three-time reigning leading sire in North America and the father of the last two Derby winners — Mandaloun and Authentic.
What’s next? The Florida Derby on April 2.
8. MO DONEGAL
Caesars Odds: 15-1.
Trainer: Todd Pletcher.
Why he’s here: Mo Donegal won that battle with Zandon in the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct late last year and turned in a mildly disappointing third-place finish as the 8-5 favorite in the Holly Bull two months later. In that 3-year-old debut, he was slow on the break and bottled in at a key moment in the race. He got going much too late, especially in the short stretch at Gulfstream Park, but he looked terrific once he found that full head of steam and almost caught Simplification for second place. Two-time Derby winner Todd Pletcher scratched him from the Fountain of Youth with a fever — but an outside draw and some hesitancy to run him back at Gulfstream likely would’ve resulted in a scratch anyway — and the trainer instead decided on a trip to the Wood Memorial, basically giving Mo Donegal one last chance at the Derby field. His sire, Uncle Mo, was the father of Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist, and Mo Donegal certainly has the look of a top Derby contender. We’ll see what happens in a couple of weeks.
What’s next? The Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 9.
9. RATTLE N ROLL
Caesars Odds: 25-1.
Trainer: Kenny McPeek.
Why he’s here: We’ll give Rattle N Roll another chance in the top 10 after a sixth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes to begin his 3-year-old campaign. The son of Connect broke his maiden at Churchill Downs and won Keeneland’s top 2-year-old race for Kenny McPeek last fall, but the Fountain of Youth was his first start since then — a layoff of nearly five months. Rattle N Roll clearly needed that race, but he was never really a factor. There’s obviously a ton of talent here, however. He returned to the track Saturday morning at Gulfstream Park, firing off a joint bullet work — 5 furlongs in :58.81 — with McPeek stablemate Smile Happy.
What’s next? After that long layoff, McPeek is wheeling Rattle N Roll right back in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds this weekend, giving him three weeks between starts.
10. SECRET OATH
Caesars Odds: 15-1.
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas.
Why she’s here: Not crazy about anyone else for a top-10 spot at this point in the prep calendar, so let’s take a longer look at the filly. That’s right, Secret Oath — one of the top Kentucky Oaks contenders this year — is being considered for a run against the boys on the first Saturday in May. The daughter of the great Arrogate — champion 3-year-old in 2016 — Secret Oath broke her maiden at Churchill Downs in October and has won three straight races at Oaklawn Park in the past three months. She turned in one of the best Beyer Speed Figures of any 2-year-old in 2021, and her 92 Beyer in the Honeybee Stakes last month was considerably better than Un Ojo’s 84 in winning the Rebel Stakes on the same card.
All of this has led legendary trainer D. Wayne Lukas, still going strong at 86 years old, to point Secret Oath to the Arkansas Derby, where she just might be the favorite. There are no guarantees that Secret Oath would go to the Kentucky Derby even with a win against the boys in Arkansas. She already has the points to make the Oaks starting gate, and her connections haven’t made any final decision on which race she’ll run in May. It’s been 12 years since Devil May Care finished 10th for Todd Pletcher as the last filly to run in the Kentucky Derby. The most recent filly to win the race was Winning Colors — also trained by Lukas — in 1988.
What’s next? The Arkansas Derby on April 2 at Oaklawn Park.
A DOZEN MORE TO WATCH
A quick look at 12 other Kentucky Derby hopefuls to keep an eye on (with the latest Caesars sportsbook futures odds):
— Barber Road (25-1) has finished second and third in the first two Oaklawn Park preps and will be one to watch in the Arkansas Derby for trainer John Ortiz. The son of Race Day has the look of a colt who could make some serious noise in the Kentucky Derby stretch (possibly at long odds).
— Call Me Midnight (35-1) won the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds — following a very favorable pace scenario — and trainer Keith Desormeaux decided to point the son of Midnight Lute directly to this weekend’s Louisiana Derby, where he’ll need to show more to be seriously considered a top Kentucky Derby contender.
— Charge It (14-1) broke his maiden at Gulfstream Park last month and has just two career starts. The son of Tapit is trained by Todd Pletcher and earned a 93 Beyer in that win. The Florida Derby is next.
— Cyberknife (30-1) is trained by Louisville native — and now Kentucky Derby winner — Brad Cox, who watched the son of champion Gun Runner finish a head-scratching sixth in the Lecomte Stakes before rebounding for a big allowance win last month. He’ll get one more chance in the Arkansas Derby
— Early Voting (16-1) won the Withers Stakes on Feb. 5 for trainer Chad Brown, who opted to skip the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct and go straight to the Wood Memorial with the son of Gun Runner. He’s 2 for 2 in his young career, and some others from that Withers field have gone on to good performances since.
— Emmanuel (20-1) was the “it” horse for the Fountain of Youth Stakes, where he finished fourth for Todd Pletcher in his debut against top competition. The son of More Than Ready didn’t have the greatest trip in that race, however, and did show some mettle at the end. The setting for Emmanuel’s next start has not been confirmed.
— Ethereal Road (35-1) is trained by four-time Derby winner D. Wayne Lukas and looked good as the runner-up to Un Ojo in the Rebel Stakes (even if the final speed numbers weren’t much). The son of Quality Road goes to the Blue Grass Stakes next for the 86-year-old trainer.
— In Due Time (16-1) should have been DQ’d for a dangerous move in the Fountain of Youth Stakes under jockey Paco Lopez, which led to two horses going down and a 14-day suspension for the rider. (Thankfully, all the horses came back fine). The second-place result held for In Due Time, who clearly has talent. Trainer Kelly Breen is likely to send the son of Not This Time to the Florida Derby next.
— Messier (8-1) might be the most talented 3-year-old in the country, but he’s trained by Bob Baffert, who’s currently suspended from the Kentucky Derby. Baffert’s challenges to that ban seem to be going nowhere, and Messier’s owners have made no moves to switch trainers with the Santa Anita Derby now less than two weeks away. If nothing changes on either front, Messier won’t be able to accumulate any Derby qualifying points, and, therefore, won’t be in the race. The son of Empire Maker ran a 103 Beyer in winning the Robert B. Lewis Stakes by 15 lengths last month. He’ll face Forbidden Kingdom, among others, in the Santa Anita Derby.
— Morello (14-1) won the Gotham Stakes earlier this month for trainer Steve Asmussen, and the son of Classic Empire is now 3 for 3 for his career heading into the Wood Memorial. He has impressive speed figures and is likely to be on a lot of top-10 lists at this point in the prep calendar, but he’s yet to go longer than 1 mile and still has some questions to answer.
— Slow Down Andy (75-1) is the only horse to beat Messier since last summer, but he finished sixth with no real excuses against a talented field in the Risen Star Stakes, his first start this year. He deserves another shot, and he’ll get one Sunday in the Sunland Derby for trainer Doug O’Neill, who won the Kentucky Derby with I’ll Have Another and Nyquist (sire of Slow Down Andy).
— Un Ojo (75-1) is the one-eyed gelding who won the Rebel Stakes at 75-1 odds for first time graded stakes winning-trainer Ricky Courville, who will send the son of Laoban out in the Arkansas Derby next. Un Ojo’s numbers are a cut below the top Kentucky Derby contenders, but the Rebel win gave him enough points for the starting gate, so he’s already in for May 7.
