Bust. It’s the dirtiest four-letter word in fantasy football.
Fantasy managers who drafted players such as Russell Wilson, Jonathan Taylor and Deebo Samuel last season know the term (and its consequences) all too well. Selecting a bust, especially in the earlier rounds of your draft, can be detrimental to your chances of fielding a true fantasy league postseason contender.
To me, the term “bust” includes players who either don’t live up to their draft position or were selected to play prominent roles who fail in the stat sheets. Middle- to late-round picks, unless you select them to be starters (mostly quarterbacks or tight ends), don’t fit the description. After all, late rounders are easily replaced.
- Possible Fantasy Busts: Quarterbacks
With that in mind, here are six running backs to beware with your valuable draft capital.
Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks
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Walker would have been on my list of breakout players, but then the Seahawks went out and took Zach Charbonnet in the second round of the NFL draft. While I’m not convinced that was some sort of death blow to Walker’s value, you’d be a fool not to think his ceiling took a hit. I’m not saying he’ll be a total bust, but a push into the top 12 or 15 among fantasy backs is far less likely in 2023.
Dalvin Cook, free agent
Cook has long been a fantasy star, but we started to see some cracks in his armor a season ago. His yards-per-carry average dropped, and he had continued nagging injuries and issues with consistency. Now a free agent, you have to wonder if he’ll be put in a true featured role whenever he might land in 2023. At this point, Cook will be hard to trust as more than a mid-RB2 in the middle rounds of drafts.
Alvin Kamara, Saints
Kamara has seen fantasy stock decline in recent years, as his points per game total has fallen from 25.2 in 2020 down to 14.1 a season ago. That’s due in large part to a decline in his pass-catching chances, not to mention his red-zone looks. Kamara is also in danger of being suspended, and the Saints added Jamaal Williams to what will be a certain committee situation this season.
Dameon Pierce, Texans
I’m a fan of Pierce, who runs hard and showed some real flashes of potential in his rookie season. With that said, he did miss four games due to injuries and the team added Devin Singletary in the offseason. That could mean fewer chances for Pierce as a pass catcher, which hurts his ceiling. The Texans offense could also be pretty bad, so be wary of Pierce as more than a low RB2.
Miles Sanders, Panthers
Sanders is coming off one of his best fantasy seasons, ranking 15th in points among running backs. I think that could be his ceiling though, and leaving what was a high-powered Eagles offense for a Panthers team led by a rookie quarterback might not bear the same statistical fruit. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Carolina mixed in Chuba Hubbard, which could hurt Sanders’s touch share.
Javonte Williams, Broncos
Williams’s value greatly depends on how well he returns from ACL and LCL injuries. If he needs to be brought along a bit slowly, he starts the season in a committee with Samaje Perine. Also keep in mind that a healthy Williams was splitting work with Melvin Gordon in his first two seasons as a pro. I still love his talent, but I wouldn’t overdraft Williams based on his name value alone.
