On Monday, it will be 100 days since Kemi Badenoch became the leader of a demoralised rump of 121 Conservative MPs. So, at this traditional moment for gauging initial success, how well is she doing? It depends, perhaps inevitably, on how you measure it.
“What you have to remember is that for the first 18 or so months after you lose an election, especially as badly as we did, no one cares what you do,” one Tory MP said. “From that point of view, Kemi’s caution in not rushing into policies makes sense. No one is listening yet. She has time.”
This is a key point. For all that the Tories are trailing behind Reform UK and Labour in the polls, with Badenoch showing few signs of turning things around, there is not yet open panic, even in a party with a tradition of removing underperforming leaders.
But there are definitely worries. Some centre on strategy – for example, whether Badenoch is capable of devising a suite of policies to see off Nigel Farage. Others focus on the party machine, the leader’s inner circle, and for some MPs, Badenoch herself.
A common complaint is that Badenoch appears to view media duties as a chore and a challenge, often sending out shadow cabinet colleagues in her place.
“Kemi absolutely hates doing media. She does not see it as an integral part of her job,” one former adviser said. “We could get away with that in government but in opposition you have to turn up to the opening of an envelope. She should be trying to get clips on the news every night. But she is not prepared to do it.”
“In opposition, it’s a one-man or one-woman show,” an MP said. “With the best will in the world, voters don’t know who Chris Philp is, and they don’t care what he says.”
Some senior Conservatives complain that Badenoch neglects other basics of her job, in particular the gruelling circuit of fundraising dinners and constituency events. “She thinks she can do the job differently, but the fact is, 90% of it is graft,” said one Tory MP. “She wants to be an architect, but being leader of the opposition is more like being a bricklayer.”
They added: “The problem is, the job she was applying for was not the one she thought she was applying for. She was running to be leader of the opposition, but she thought she was running to head up a right-of-centre thinktank.”
Badenoch’s circle of advisers is small and close-knit. The two major powers are her chief of staff, Lee Rowley, and her director of strategy, Rachel Maclean, both Tory former ministers who lost their seats at the last election, as well as Michael Gove’s former adviser Henry Newman.
Rowley grew close to Badenoch when both served as junior ministers, and was the creative force behind her leadership campaign. But very few members of her staff have any experience of opposition, and thus how to make the weather against a government.
She also faces the challenge of a creaking, diminished and disheartened party machine, with Reform UK now boasting more members.
A parallel drop in funding has resulted in staff numbers at Tory HQ plummeting from 200 to about 60, with insufficient money to hire political advisers for shadow cabinet ministers. Some say the party needs to raise about £5m in the coming months just to keep afloat.
Officials are looking to move from the party’s offices in Westminster’s Matthew Parker Street to cut costs. The survival of its northern HQ in Leeds, which was opened under Boris Johnson, is under question.
Within a context so generally grim, it is no surprise that some thoughts have already moved beyond how well or not Badenoch is faring and on to more existential matters, including whether to seek a formal deal or even union with Reform.
“There’s a 40% chance that the Conservative party does not survive,” one Tory insider said.
Some veterans of Conservative government believe that MPs and the people around Badenoch have not come to terms with how bad things are. A former special adviser said: “Tory MPs are totally deluded about how bad it is. They’ve got this view that it will fizzle out. They think of Farage as he was in 2015 or 2017, when he was an outsider campaigning on a single issue. He was still appearing on things like Russia Today. Now he’s standing up in parliament asking prime minister’s questions and urgent questions.
“For the next 18 months Reform will be getting positive media coverage. They’re going to do well in the local elections this spring and the big ones in May 2026.”
One shadow minister said: “I didn’t think this could happen, but things have actually got worse since the election. Councillors are leaving for Reform across the country; they think they’re not getting any clear sense of direction from Kemi. The only hope we realistically have of winning the next election is to do a deal with Reform. But Nigel Farage will demand a very high price for that.”
