Kemi Badenoch may only be four months into her leadership, but already Westminster is talking about her successor. Nigel Farage declared over the weekend that the Conservative party leader would be “lucky to survive past June”. Of course, he would say that. The Reform UK leader has a personal interest in Tory misfortune. But more concerning for Badenoch is that some in her own party are starting to ask if she’ll still be leader at the next election.
Her problems are piling up. The Tories regularly come third in national polls behind Reform and Labour. There is little money to go around (despite a spurt in Tory donations late last year) and redundancies at Conservative campaign headquarters (CCHQ) are seen as inevitable. Badenoch’s performances at prime minister’s questions are regularly criticised among Tory MPs for being too scatter-gun and missing open goals. The May local elections will be the first electoral test of her leadership – and CCHQ sources are attempting some serious expectation management as they warn of losses.
But perhaps worst of all for Badenoch, there are simply plenty of figures on the right who never wanted her to be party leader and have even less time for her now. Alongside Farage, rarely a week passes without Dominic Cummings – the former leave campaign supremo – taking to social media or his Substack to criticise Badenoch, recently suggesting “it’s better for the country when she’s playing iPad games all day than playing ‘policy’.” The fact Cummings met Farage for dinner a few months ago has spurred excited chatter that a rightwing coup could soon be under way to push Badenoch aside. Her critics are a mix of those who find her too abrasive and those who think her shadow cabinet is too one-nation and lacks the bite to take on Reform.
However, this talk has not yet caught on too widely within the party. “I don’t think she is doing that well but she’s not going anywhere at the moment,” says a former cabinet minister. Others point to her performance last week – in which she announced net zero was “impossible” by 2050 and launched a series of policy commissions – as evidence that things are improving. While Badenoch has been accused by the former Tory MP Chris Skidmore of going back on a pledge she made to a group of MPs in 2022 to back the net zero target, many of the current intake welcome the move as a way of taking the fight to Reform. “Her position is much stronger than a few weeks ago,” says a member of the shadow cabinet. Even the Badenoch critics are keen to downplay talk of her imminent exit. “Angela Rayner has saved Kemi,” says one Conservative source, pointing to the limited number of local council elections after local government changes. “The most difficult votes have been postponed so May won’t be the crunch point.”
Yet while the Tory mood is far from regicidal, there are long-term questions being asked about Badenoch’s leadership. “There are things she should do to increase her survivability,” says one Tory MP. “Net zero was one good thing in a desert of five months – and she needs the self-awareness to understand that and then the ability to respond.”
But the first step is perhaps understanding the forces that will be working against her. As well as the odd explosion from Cummings or Farage, Badenoch has to contend with the likely launch of a campaign group in the next few weeks that will argue for an electoral pact between Reform and the Tories. For now, the campaign is loosely referred to as “unite the right”. However, a different official title is expected – to be revealed at the launch.
On paper, a mix of supporters of Reform and the Conservatives pointing at the polling and making the point that there could be an argument for the two parties working together isn’t that sinister. However, the reason this poses a threat to Badenoch is that she has come out firmly against a pact and there is no love lost between her and Farage. “If we have to work with Nigel – and the current polls suggest the Reform vote is too sticky to not – you can’t have Kemi as leader,” says a former government adviser. They argue that Badenoch’s leadership style is too abrasive, even if she did change tack.
It’s here that a game of fantasy leader tends to happen. Names being floated as Reform-friendly Tory leaders include Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick. Jenrick – who lost to Badenoch in the leadership contest – is these days seen as the most likely successor were Badenoch to go. While the shadow justice secretary has his critics – particularly among Badenoch loyalists – he is slowly but surely winning round some through his hard work. He is far and away the shadow minister making the biggest impact when it comes to social media, policy work and setting the news agenda.
“Some of the shadow cabinet are jealous of Rob [Jenrick] as he keeps making news but he is also working a lot harder,” argues a Tory MP. A Jenrick ally adds: “Rob is willing to work all hours unlike some – and it shows.” Others pine for Boris Johnson – but for now this is yet to be a real movement. “It’s the same people as before talking up Boris and they will say, ‘Oh, he stopped Farage,’” says one Tory MP. “He also oversaw increased legal migration.”
It’s why, for now, Badenoch’s inner-circle plan to ignore the noise and focus on showing MPs they have a plan through their actions. “It’s the same people mouthing off. They’re like the Japanese soldiers who didn’t know the second world war had ended and were trying to keep it going,” says a Badenoch ally. Instead, Badenoch hopes that the cracks appearing in the Reform party since Rupert Lowe’s exit mean most of the drama will be coming from the other side.
Yet there are small signs that the Tory leader recognises she will need all the friends she can get in the long term: she has recently started lunches with MPs after prime minister’s questions. Given Badenoch takes issues with sandwiches (previously telling me they were not a real food), the food of choice is pizza. She ultimately knows that while she has breathing space for now, that will change if she can’t point to progress in the coming year. If the Tories stay third in the polls, her critics won’t find it too hard to win supporters for their cause.
Katy Balls is the Spectator’s political editor
