Kemi Badenoch’s honeymoon appears to have come to an end as the poll surge enjoyed by her party since she was elected Tory leader stalled this week.
According to the Techne UK weekly tracker poll for The Independent, Sir Keir Starmer actually saw a small increase in his lead over the Tories – now two points – despite a difficult week in which the “tractor tax” protests in London attracted an estimated 20,000 people.
Sir Keir was also criticised for meeting China’s president Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Rio just hours before 45 pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong were jailed, but that does not appear to have harmed his standing with the public either.
Labour was up one to 29 per cent, the Tories were unchanged on 27 per cent, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK unchanged on 17 per cent, Lib Dems down one to 12 per cent and Greens unchanged on 7 per cent.
Ms Badenoch had appeared to be on course to pass Labour and Sir Keir in the polls after making up six points in the first two weeks following her victory to replace Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservative Party.
But the check on her party’s rise comes amid some disquiet over her strategy by senior MPs from opposite wings of the party, who want to see the new leader go more on the front foot over policy.
A former minister from the One Nation left of the Tories said: “It’s been just OK so far. She really needs to start saying what she wants and what she stands for.
“The one thing the leader of the opposition has is the ability to set the agenda with positive ideas.”
A former minister who had backed rival Robert Jenrick agreed: “Kemi is just being reactive. She is not setting out a positive alternative.
“We have gone through a leadership election where she refused to spell out any policies but now that is over she needs to provide some positive vision.
“She should consider making a speech or something to start setting the agenda.”
But she was defended by leadership rival Tom Tugendhat, despite him declining to serve in her shadow cabinet.
In an interview with Sky News, he said: “Kemi is a really, really good friend. She has been for many years. She very kindly asked me if I was looking for a role and I said, ‘Look, if you wouldn’t mind very much, I’d like to have a little bit of time to think and do a few other things and come back to serve in due course’. She’s already started extremely well. She’s going to make a great leader of the opposition.”
Michela Morizzo, chief executive of Techne, said: “Our tracker poll this week brings slightly better news for Sir Keir Starmer. Even with the significant farming protests in central London this week, his Labour Party, perhaps unexpectedly, rose by one point of the national vote share to 29 per cent.
“Conversely, the bounce that Kemi Badenoch has experienced as the new leader of the Conservative Party has somewhat faltered, with her party standing still in the national vote share at 27 per cent.
“With Reform UK also standing still on 17 per cent of the national vote share, it does seem as if the main political parties have hit a pre-Christmas ‘stalemate’. Let’s see if in the coming weeks the Conservatives will start rising again or if the effects of the new leader’s election have faded.”
