All eyes are on May 1 as the UK heads into a major day of elections that could mark a turning point in British politics. Local council and mayoral elections are on the ballot, but it’s the Runcorn by-election that could steal the spotlight — and potentially rewrite the political playbook.
Reform UK, riding a wave of national momentum, is neck and neck with Labour in the polls. But if the party stumbles in Runcorn or performs poorly across mayoral and council contests, all the current hype could unravel fast. A weak showing would take the wind out of Reform’s sails, and might even push Labour back leftward after its recent lean to the right, reported the Express.
On the flip side, if Reform pulls off a strong result, especially in key areas like Lincolnshire and Hull, both Brexit-leaning regions, it would signal something far bigger than a protest vote. It would be a political earthquake, confirming that Reform’s surge isn’t just noise but a real threat heading into the next general election in 2029.
The Red Wall is already showing signs of shifting. Recent polling by Survation has found a noticeable drop in Labour support, with Reform rapidly gaining ground. If that trend holds up on May 1, it could cement Reform’s place as a serious political force.
As for the Tories, the stakes couldn’t be higher. If the Conservatives crash in Runcorn and lose their deposit, it could send their internal divisions into overdrive. Party leader Kemi Badenoch, already under pressure, could face fresh calls for change. Still, some argue that dumping Badenoch this early could backfire badly — the optics of pushing out a leader so soon after their election could spark even more chaos.
Ironically, Badenoch’s struggles might be working in Farage’s favour. A weak Tory leader makes Reform look even more attractive to disillusioned voters. But if she were forced out, the Conservatives might just manage a reset — something that could slow Reform’s rise.
Regardless of who wins what on May 1, one thing’s clear: the landscape is shifting fast. Labour’s edging right to counter Reform, the Tories are struggling to hold the centre, and Farage’s party is carving out space with hardline stances on crime, immigration, taxes, and the economy — a message that’s clearly resonating in former Labour strongholds.
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