Afternoon summary
Starmer says Sunak should call election now because he does not have personal mandate to govern
And here are some more lines from the broadcast interviews that Keir Starmer gave after his speech and Q&A this morning. (They were conducted earlier, but with a 5pm embargo.)
Starmer said Rishi Sunak should call an election now because he did not have a mandate to govern. When the BBC’s Chris Mason put it to him that the PM did not need to call an election now, because of the mandate from the general election, Starmer said Sunak was the third PM since 2019 and did not have a personal mandate to govern.
Starmer confirmed that Labour is no longer committed to making ministers wait at least five years between leaving office and taking a job lobbying their old department. Labour originally proposed a five-year cooling off period but, as Kiran Stacey revealed this week, that time period may now be shortened. Asked if he was still committed to five years, Starmer said he was “fundamentally committed to clearing up politics” but that the full detail of this plan was still being considered.
Starmer said he would be asking the government “pretty soon” to allow Labour to start talks with civil servants about its programme for government. But it was up to Sunak to authorise those talks, he said. In a report out today, the Institute for Government thinktank says those talks should have already started.
Updated
Starmer confirms Labour would reverse any inheritance tax cut introduced by Tories
During his Q&A this morning Keir Starmer said he was “fundamentally opposed” to cutting inheritance tax. (See 10.52am.) In an interview with Sky, Starmer confirmed that, if the Tories went ahead and implemented a cut, a Labour government would reverse it. He said:
I’d oppose [an inheritance tax cut], it wouldn’t be what we would do, and of course we would change that if we got the opportunity to do so.
Starmer rules out putting up taxes to fund Labour's £28bn green investment programme
Keir Starmer has ruled out raising taxes to fund Labour’s green investment programme.
In a new release issued by CCHQ, Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, claimed earlier this afternoon that Starmer’s comments on the topic during his Q&A this morning implied tax rises were likely for this purpose. (See 3.10pm.)
In an interview with Chris Mason, the BBC’s political editor, Starmer was asked if he would water down the plan to spend £28bn a year on green investment. Starmer said he was “absolutely committed” to his mission of achieving zero-carbon electricity by 2030. (See 11.03am and 2.30pm.)
Asked if he would put up taxes to pay for that, he replied:
No, we’ve never suggested that. That isn’t going to happen. That’s a misconceived Tory attack. But frankly, tax attacks from the Tories, who’ve just put taxes up to the highest level since the war, I think – water off a duck’s back, as far as I’m concerned.
Starmer says Labour will 'meet fire with fire' if Tories resort to dirty tactics during election
Keir Starmer has said that Labour will meet “fire with fire” if the Conservatives resort to dirty tactics during the general election campaign.
In an interview with Sky’s Beth Rigby, asked if he would be “going high” or “going low” in the election campaign, Starmer replied:
I’ve made my case, a positive case this morning for hope, for change. I don’t think the Tories can make that argument.
They will go low. What I’m saying is if they want to go with fire into this election, we will meet their fire with fire.
He also argued that the this approach was justified because “the stakes at this election are so high for working people”.
There is almost nothing, outside the libel laws, to regulate what political parties can say about each other during election campaigns. The Electoral Commission investigates spending on campaigns, not their content, and the Advertising Standards Authority does not rule on political adverts.
The Conservatives and Labour have both been accused of underhand methods in their campaigning. Rishi Sunak has repeatedly been criticised for saying things that are misleading or untrue – including on the asylum backlog, only this week – and last year Labour outraged some of its supporters by running an advert claiming Sunak did not favour jailing child abusers.
Updated
Philip Collins, who wrote speeches for Tony Blair when Blair was PM and who has written speeches for Keir Starmer in the past, has published an analysis of Starmer’s speech today on his Substack blog. Here is Collins’ take on the “politics that treads a little lighter” line. (See 3.50pm.)
There was a passage in Starmer’s conference speech in which he made this point. With a distant echo of WB Yeats he talked about treading more lightly and here he does so again. It’s the best phrase in the speech and the most question-begging idea. It might be quoted back when Labour proves to be quite interventionist. It demands a whole speech of its own, to be worked out. Does it mean any more than that a Labour [government] will feel different, will be less attention-seeking and more intent on achievement? Perhaps not, but it still sounds like exactly the sort of (welcome) sentiment that almost nobody in the Labour party can live up to.
Updated
A reader asks:
I know that Labour appear to be carrying out the “Ming vase” movement and are comfortably ahead in the polls. My question is how does Starmer’s personal polling compare with those that’ve been subsequently elected a year later?
Ipsos publishes a table in its political monitor every month showing how Keir Starmer’s ratings compare with the ratings of other opposition leaders at the same point in their tenure. Here is the latest one.
The political table also has a similar chart for prime ministers.
Updated
What Starmer said about wanting to make politics calmer and less attention-grabbing
The full text of Keir Starmer’s speech this morning is now on Labour’s website.
One of the most intriguing passages, which was not trailed in advance, came when Keir Starmer promised a calmer politics – an end to politics as psychodrama and Twitter rows, which is what it seems to have become recently. He said:
With respect and service I also promise this: a politics that treads a little lighter on all of our lives.
Because that’s the thing about populism, or nationalism, any politics fuelled by division.
It needs your full attention. It needs you constantly focusing on this week’s common enemy. And that’s exhausting, isn’t it?
On the other hand, a politics that aspires to national unity, bringing people together, the common good, that’s harder to express, less colourful, fewer clicks on social media. And, in some ways, it’s more demanding of you.
It asks you to moderate your political wishes out of respect for the different wishes of others. Forty-five million voters can’t get everything that they want, that’s democracy.
If Starmer delivers on this, it will be bad news for political journalists. (He is basically proposing to make politics more boring.) But Luke Tryl, the UK director for the campaign group More in Common, says the public will be grateful.
Listen to any focus group and it’s so clear - after Brexit, Covid, Partygate Cost of Living, the public are simply exhausted with politics. There is a big electoral prize for whoever can convince people they’ll be able to turn on the news and not worry about what they’ll see/hear
Listen to any focus group and it’s so clear - after Brexit, Covid, Partygate Cost of Living, the public are simply exhausted with politics. There is a big electoral prize for whoever can convince people they’ll be able to turn on the news and not worry about what they’ll see/hear https://t.co/hbVQiQ5Fe0
— Luke Tryl (@LukeTryl) January 4, 2024
Updated
Unite leader Sharon Graham says Starmer 'not realistic' if he expects growth to fund the investment UK needs
Sharon Graham, general secretary of Unite, one of the main trade unions supporting Labour, has said Keir Starmer is not being realistic if he is relying on growth to fund the investment needed to improve Britain.
In a statement issued in response to his speech this morning she also said Labour should nationalise energy companies. She said:
Undoubtedly the country needs change and it is crying out for different choices to be made. It is now critical that workers and communities can see clearly what choices Labour is proposing.
For example, Keir rightly says we are exposed on the international stage regarding energy. The choice that needs to be made in order to reduce sky high prices is for energy – and in particular the National Grid – to be brought into public ownership.
Put simply ‘project hope’ will require serious investment. Relying on growth to generate that investment is not realistic. We have not had significant growth since the 1970s. If we depend on growth to fund all the investment we need it will only result in inertia.
Britain needs a Labour government – but it needs it to be serious about real change.
Updated
Hunt claims taxes would have to go up under Labour if it wouldn't break its borrowing rules to fund green plan
During his Q&A this morning Keir Starmer sought to rebut Tory claims that his £28bn a year green investment plan was a financial liability, partly by saying that his main focus was Labour’s zero-carbon electricity by 2030 target. (See 11.03am and 2.30pm.) If Labour could not afford to borrow the money for the £28bn fund, it would not happen, he said.
The Conservatives are now claiming this answer makes tax rises under Labour even more likely. In a statement released by CCHQ Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, said:
Sir Keir Starmer today recommitted to his 2030 plans which Labour say would cost £28bn a year.
Given his claim to be committed to fiscal responsibility, such large sums can only be funded through tax rises which means more pressure on working families and lower economic growth – just at the time the Conservative government is starting to cut taxes.
Updated
Steve Barclay and Steve Reed make rival pitches for farming vote at Oxford farming conference
The environment secretary, Steve Barclay, and his Labour counterpart, Steve Reed, were making their pitches to farmers this morning at the Oxford farming conference.
Barclay announced a shake-up to the post-Brexit farming payment schemes which replace the EU’s common agricultural policy. He said:
We will pay you more for taking part in our environmental and management series. On average, this is an increase in rates by 10% to make it more attractive for you to get in, and those already in schemes will automatically benefit from this. And in addition, if you have a plan to put things together in a way that makes a significant difference, you will be paid a premium for that as well.
The Guardian revealed yesterday that there is an underspend of hundreds of millions missing from farmers’ pockets after changes and delays to the schemes that pay farmers to protect the nature on their land.
Environmentalists may have been alarmed by his speech because in it he confirmed the Tories would continue the badger cull if they won the general election. Labour has committed to ending the cull. He also announced he was looking at reviewing the powers of the regulators Natural England and the Environment Agency, which he said were “too suspicious” of farmers. Agriculture is the leading cause of river pollution.
Reed gave a bombastic speech where he relished the idea of potentially soon being the environment secretary. He said:
We may just be a few weeks away from a general election. Of course I wish the secretary of state well in his new role, but I do hope he is embarking on what will be his farewell tour.
He said “farmers have been abandoned by the government” and promised to tackle rural inequality if he became environment secretary.
Reed also promised a closer trading relationship with Europe and said that 6,000 UK farming businesses had closed since 2017.
Updated
Starmer's Q&A - summary and analysis
At one point during his Q&A Keir Starmer made a reference to the large number of questions he was taking from journalists who attended his speech. Everyone seemed to get a question, and this came over as a sign of confidence. It was not one of those occasions where the leader just calls the three most supportive reporters in the room as quickly as possible. It would not be fair to say everyone got an answer. But even when Starmer is being evasive, he is increasingly good at doing it in such a way as to ensure that it does not really show.
Here are the main points. I have updated some of the earlier posts with direct quotes. When I refer to them here, you may need to refresh the page to get the updates to appear.
Starmer played down talk of Labour offering tax cuts at the general election, saying that he thought growth was the “first lever” he would look to as a means of making people richer. (See 12.06pm.) But he also said: “In principle I do want to see lower taxes on working people.” His comments were interesting in the light of the claim that Labour is considering committing to cutting income tax or national insurance in its manifesto, but in truth Labour is unlikely to take a final decision on this until after the budget and much closer to the election, when it might know more about the Tory counter offer.
He said that he was “fundamentally opposed” to cutting inheritance tax because this would only benefit the rich. (See 10.52am.) He was asked about this in the light of reports that the Tories want to cut it, or at least commit to a cut in their manifesto. The plan is popular with voters, even though only around 4% of estates (ie, only the most wealthy families in the country) pay it. The Conservative party is constantly looking for “dividing lines” that it wants Labour to oppose. Labour did not opposed the autumn statement tax cuts, it reportedly won’t oppose an income tax cut if (as expected) that’s in the March budget, but today Starmer showed that an inheritance tax cut would serve as a dividing line.
He said that, if Labour’s fiscal rules did not allow the party to borrow the money needed for its £28bn annual green jobs investment fund, that investment would not happen. He said:
We have set out how that will be funded: the money that is needed for the investment, that is undoubtedly needed; saying that the £28bn will be ramped up in the second half of the parliament; that it will be subject of course to any money that the government is already putting in; and it will be subject to our fiscal rules.
That means that if the money is from borrowing, which it will be, borrowing to invest, that the fiscal rules don’t allow it, then we will borrow less.
The Conservatives have made the £28bn a year green investment plan a key attack line, arguing that Labour could only fund it through borrowing and that as a result it would lead to higher taxes. But Starmer said today that, because of the points he was making, this attack was “utterly misconceived”. He also implied that what matter most to him was his target to deliver zero-carbon electricity by 2030. (See 11.03am.) Paul Waugh from the i reckons there were three tweaks to the policy in these answers.
Starmer 3 tweaks to green pledge.
1. “The £28bn will be ramped up in the 2nd half of the parliament” [may not hit it until 2029]
2. “...subject to money the govt is already putting in..” [<28bn]
3. “If the fiscal rules don’t allow it then we will borrow less” [cd be much lower]
Starmer 3 tweaks to green pledge.
— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) January 4, 2024
1. "The £28bn will be ramped up in the 2nd half of the parliament" [may not hit it until 2029]
2. "...subject to money the govt is already putting in.." [<28bn]
3. "If the fiscal rules don’t allow it then we will borrow less" [cd be much lower]
Starmer rejected claims that he wanted to avoid debating Rishi Sunak at the general election. Those reports were “nonsense”, he said. He went on:
I’ve been saying bring it on for a very, very long time. I’m happy to debate any time.
The question was prompted by this passage in an article by Tim Shipman in the Sunday Times at the weekend. But Shipman did not say Starmer would not debate Sunak – only that Labour would prefer to avoid debates. Shipman said:
Conversations with broadcasters [about debates] have already begun. Aides close to Starmer would prefer to duck them. “We have nothing to gain,” one said. “[But] if the Tories make a big issue of it, I guess we will have to.”
Starmer said he was open to the possibility of getting asylum seekers to have their applications processed offshore. (See 10.56am.)
He said Labour would protect single-sex spaces. (See 10.59am.)
He confirmed he was in favour of allowing 16 and 17-year-old to vote in general elections. (See 10.51am.)
Updated
Sunak claims he is 'making progress' on his five priorities
And here are some more lines from what Rishi Sunak has been saying in Mansfield, where he visited a youth centre.
Sunak said the government was on a “journey” towards bringing taxes down. He said:
This Saturday, a big tax cut is coming in, every working person across the country is going to benefit from it. It’s worth £450 to an average person in work on the average salary.
We want to do more because, as we manage the economy responsibly, we can cut your taxes, give you and your family peace of mind, immediate relief from some of the challenges you’re facing and confidence that the future is going to be better for you and your children. That is the journey that we’re on.
He said that a vote for Reform UK was a vote for Labour. He said:
A vote for anybody who’s not a Conservative candidate, a Conservative MP, is a vote for Keir Starmer in power.
There’s only going to be two options for prime minister after the next election: it’s either going to be me or Keir Starmer. A vote for anyone who is not a Conservative is a vote for Keir Starmer in power.
He said 2024 was going to be a better year. He said:
Look, 2023, I’ll be honest, it wasn’t the easiest of years, for any of us, it wasn’t an easy year for our country …
I’m going to tell you, I know that 2024 is going to be a better year. I want to make sure that all you believe 2024 is going to be a better year too.
He claimed he was “making progress” on his five priorities, arguing the economy was outperforming expectations and that debt was “on track to be lower and falling”. The Institute for Government disagrees. The five priorities were announced a year ago today.
He said Nottingham city council in effect declaring itself bust was “a demonstration of their poor financial mismanagement” and an indication of what would happen when Labour was in power. (Labour runs the authority.) He said:
More broadly, I think that gives you a sense of the difference between Conservative and Labour party.
I’m someone who, I think, people know knows how to manage the economy responsibly and well. That’s why we’re able to say we’ve halved inflation last year, and I said we would, and this Saturday we’re going to be cutting people’s taxes, a £450 tax cut for an average person in work.
He claimed Labour’s plans to borrow £28bn a year to invest in green energy were “simply not credible”.
Updated
Labour has put this on social media, accusing Rishi Sunak of bottling a May election.
Rishi Sunak has yet again bottled giving the British public their say.
— The Labour Party (@UKLabour) January 4, 2024
He’s squatting in Number 10 because he’s too weak to face the country. pic.twitter.com/IcCn5MEq8Y
As discussed earlier, despite what Labour has been saying, a May election never seemed probable anyway. (See 1.13pm.)
Updated
This is from my colleague Kiran Stacey, which confirms the point made earlier about most people at Westminster never expecting the election to be in May anyway.
One thing I've learned today is that a surprising number of political reporters had already booked holidays for April or May. https://t.co/MzdkBrKHYp
— Kiran Stacey (@kiranstacey) January 4, 2024
Labour and Lib Dems accuse Sunak of 'squatting' in Downing Street when they say he should be calling election
Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, and Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, are both accusing Rishi Sunak of “squatting” in Downing Street when he should be calling a general election.
Starmer told the BBC:
We are ready for a general election. I think the country is ready for a general election.
The prime minister has hinted without setting a date that it might be later this year. Why can’t he set a date? Him squatting in Downing Street for months on end, dithering and delaying while the country wants change.
And Davey said:
Rishi Sunak has bottled it and is running scared of a May general election.
Squatter Sunak is holed up in Downing Street, desperately clinging on to power rather than facing the verdict of the British people.
We need an election in spring, so that voters can finally get rid of this appalling and out-of-touch Conservative government.
Earlier this week the Daily Mirror published opinion polling suggesting that two-thirds of people want a general election by the summer. Of those, 31% of people said it should be as soon as possible and 19% said it should be in the spring.
The “squatter” claim is another example of Gordon Brown’s influence on the lexicon of modern politics. Starmer and Davey were both referencing a Sun front page that described Brown as a “squatter holed up in No 10” after he did not resign immediately following his general election defeat in 2010.
In fact, Brown was just following constitutional convention saying the PM should not resign until they are in a position to recommend a successor to the monarch. At the time of the Sun splash, coalition haggling was taking place and it was not clear who would be best placed to form the next government.
What made Sunak rule out spring election, and does it matter?
The timing of a general election is one of the few decisions in politics entirely in the hands of a prime minister. The normal rule is to say as little about it as possible.
So why has Rishi Sunak apparently ruled out a spring election? Almost certainly because he calculated that if he did not do this soon, Labour would accuse him, first of “dithering”, and then of “bottling” a May election (assuming he did not have one).
The evidence that Labour were planning this was increasingly obvious. Party sources have been quoted in the papers saying Labour HQ was planning for a May election, based on its reading of what the government was doing (such as implementing the autumn statement tax cuts from January, not April as normal, and scheduling the budget for very early in March). The tactic became obvious when Emily Thornberry, the shadow attorney general, told Sky News last week a May election was “the worst-kept secret in Westminster”.
All this prompted Paul Goodman, the editor of the ConservativeHome website, to write an article this week urging Sunak to rule out a May election before expectations got out of control. Sunak has taken his advice.
Did Sunak really need to? Perhaps not. Labour figures work on the assumption that “bottling” an election can be fatal for a prime minister because it was for Gordon Brown, who never recovered from allowing the whole political world to assume he was going to call an election in the autumn of 2007 before he called it off. But this is partly a misreading of what happened. What really did for Brown was not cancelling the election, but giving an interview afterwards claiming that his decision had nothing to do with the opinion polls. He was lying, and voters knew it. His reputation tanked afterwards because of what people learned, not about his decision-making capabilities, but about his honesty.
Sunak was in a stronger position because, contrary to what Thornberry said last week, a May election was not Westminster’s “worst-kept secret”. Most people in Westminster were working on the firm assumption that the election would be in the autumn. That’s because we think that, faced with the choice of being PM for four more months or 10 more months, Sunak will opt for the latter. All prime ministers in modern times facing near certain election defeat have done the same.
It is true that some of the Treasury decisions taken recently did seem motivated by the need to keep open the option of having the election in May. But that is just sensible strategic planning; it did not mean the May option was being favoured.
Perhaps Labour will now claim to have bounced Sunak out of holding a May election? But they were bouncing him into a position he almost certainly favoured anyway, and close reading of what he said (see 12.39pm) shows that he has not absolutely ruled out going early.
Updated
Sunak says his 'working assumption' is that the general election will take place in second half of 2024
Rishi Sunak has said he expects the general election to take place in the second half of this year. Speaking to broadcasters on a visit to a youth centre in Mansfield, Nottinghamshire, he said:
My working assumption is we’ll have a general election in the second half of this year and in the meantime I’ve got lots that I want to get on with.
Asked if he could rule out a May election, Sunak repeated it was his “working assumption” that the vote will be held later in the year. He said:
I want to keep going, managing the economy well and cutting people’s taxes. But I also want to keep tackling illegal migration.
So, I’ve got lots to get on with and I’m determined to keep delivering for the British people.
Updated
Starmer plays down talk of Labour offering tax cuts at election, saying growth is best way to make people richer
As expected, Keir Starmer was asked about tax policy during his Q&A with journalists.(See 10.02am.) It has been reported that the party is considering making income tax cuts a manifesto commitment. Starmer did not rule this out, but he did play down the prospect.
This is what he said when asked if he would cut people’s taxes by unfreezing income tax thresholds. The question was prompted by the fact that Labour has been criticising the government for freezing them, creating a “stealth tax” by dragging more and more people into paying tax, or into a higher tax band, every year.
Starmer replied:
I do want more people to have more money in their pocket. That’s a fundamental principle we start with.
Now, the question is: how do we get to that? I’m challenged on tax all of the time.
The first lever that we want to pull, the first place we will go, is growth in our economy because that’s what’s been missing for 14 years. Without growth, we won’t have the money to run our public services … That’s why we’ve put all of our focus on growth and the economy.
Where we are going to make adjustments to tax, we have been really clear about what that looks like. We have said what are going to do with VAT on private schools, the non-dom status, the loopholes that we have.
As Pat McFadden said this morning on the media, any tax cuts have to be fair and affordable, and we have to be realistic about that. (See 9.55am.)
But I think the place to go is to growth on this.
Starmer also said that, with the tax burden at its highest since the second world war, the Tories could not attack Labour over tax.
Later, when asked if he would prioritise tax cuts for businesses or for individuals (see 11.07am), Starmer warned about what happened when Liz Truss cut taxes – reinforcing his point about cuts only being possible if they were affordable.
Updated
Campaigners express concern that Starmer backing away from £28bn annual green investment fund pledge
The campaign group Green New Deal Rising has expressed concern about Keir Starmer’s comments in his Q&A about his commitment to Labour’s £28bn annual green investment fund. (See 10.51am and 11.03am.) This is from Hannah Martin, its co-director.
Instead of backing down from another key promise, Labour should be pledging £28bn investment from day one of a new parliament, and using the money to reprogramme our economy so that it works for all of us and not just big business and shareholders. £28bn per year is the minimum we need to fulfil our climate targets and reverse economic decline.
Voters want to see a strong commitment to tackling the climate crisis at the next election. Labour should be setting fiscal rules that encourage much-needed investment in our economy to create jobs, reduce inequality and prevent catastrophic climate change.
The Labour party must not kill off its £28bn through death by a thousand cuts. Young people are watching and will hold Labour to account to deliver a green new deal that responds to the scale of the cost of living crisis and climate catastrophe we face.
Updated
Pro-Palestinian campaigners have been protesting against Keir Starmer at the venue where he was giving his speech, Steph Spyro, from the Express, reports.
Pro-Palestine protesters outside Sir Keir Starmer’s speech in Bristol.
— Steph Spyro (@StephSpyro) January 4, 2024
They’re chanting: “Keir Starmer you can’t hide, you’re supporting genocide.”
As well as: “Keir Starmer, shame on you.” pic.twitter.com/1YSdIUrtxG
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John McDonnell says Starmer will leave vacuum for far right if he does not give clear vision of how Labour would improve UK
John McDonnell, who was shadow chancellor when Jeremy Corbyn was Labour leader, has written an article for the Guardian saying that if Keir Starmer is not clear about what Labour will do when it is in power, it will create a policy vacuum that will be filled by the far right.
Here is an extract.
If there is a vacuum in the political debate both in the run-up to the election and also, as importantly, after the election, it will be filled by others. And this is my warning. There is a real and rising danger that this political vacuum could be filled by the far right. The polling figures for the Reform party demonstrate already how a far-right populist programme can pull the major parties on to a rightwing agenda …
People will be patient as they fully realise how broken Britain is, but the foundations of credible and radical change will have to be seen to be being laid early in the life of the incoming Labour government. People will need to see how there is a real strategy to restore the value of wages and incomes held back for so long under the Tories, how investment in our public services is taking place and how reform doesn’t mean more privatisation, and how the grotesque levels of inequality in our society are being reduced.
If Labour fails to set out early on a path of radical change to secure the all-round wellbeing and security of our people, then inevitably disillusionment will set in. The risk then is the potential for a significant shift in our politics to the right, with the return of a Conservative party, completely shorn of any traditional one nation Tories and under the dominance of the populist right both within the party and beyond.
And here is the article (which is a good example of the point made earlier – see 9.37am – about how complaints about Starmer not having a policy agenda are often really complaints about the agenda being too conservative).
Updated
The venue for Keir Starmer’s speech – the Bristol and Bath Science Park – wasn’t the most original. During the 2015 general election campaign Ed Miliband and David Cameron came here in consecutive days.
Miliband gave a speech at the National Composites Centre shortly after Labour launched its “the doctor can’t see you” poster campaign, showing a winding queue of people. The day before Cameron, campaigning alongside the then chancellor George Osborne, was on site to commit to lowering taxes and raising the personal tax-free allowance.
The science park is Emersons Green, south Gloucestershire, seven miles north east of Bristol city centre, an area currently held by the Conservatives.
Starmer gave his speech at the composite centre in front of something called a “robotic deposition system for carbon fibre”. Boeing use it in the construction of fuselages for the 787 Dreamliner.
The audience included business leaders, Labour party workers and politicians including the Bristol directly elected mayor, Marvin Rees.
Q: What is more of a priority for you – cutting personal taxes or business taxes?
Starmer says the focus has to be on growth. Liz Truss floated tax cuts that were uncosted. That crashed the economy, he says.
He attacks Truss for rewarding some of her aides with honours, and he suggests people must have been shocked to see that.
And that is the end of the Q&A.
I will post a summary and analysis of the speech and Q&A shortly.
Starmer says, with the tax burden near a record high, he does not think people should be paying more tax.
Starmer plays down significance of £28bn green investment plan, saying what matters most is clean energy by 2030 target
Q: Can you guarantee that there won’t be further watering down of the £28bn green jobs investment plan?
Starmer says there is no question of pushing back on the mission – green power by 2030.
The investment that Labour is planning is intended to trigger private investment at the ratio of 1:3. They have talked to international investors about this.
The key target date is 2030.
The £28bn investment will be ramped up, but that does not mean nothing will happen at the start.
“There is no pushing back on the mission,” he says.
Q: Do you think Peter Mandelson has questions to answer about his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein? He is a close ally of yours.
Starmer says he knows no more about this than what he has read.
Updated
Starmer says Labour committed to protecting single-sex spaces
Q: Are single-sex spaces safe under Labour?
Yes, says Starmer. He says he has been committed to these for a long time.
UPDATE: Starmer said:
Yes, and I have been really clear and unwavering on this.
From my time as chief prosecutor, I worked with a whole bunch of people on violence against women and girls, and saw and know myself from my own observations just how important it is.
Updated
Starmer denies reports saying he wants to avoid election debates with Sunak
Q: Will you commit to taking part in debates during the election campaign?
Starmer says reports saying he wants to avoid them are just wrong. He is happy to debate any time. He is not afraid of scrutiny, he says. He wants the election. “Bring it on.”
Starmer says he is open in principle to possibility of asylum seekers having their claims processed offshore
Q: What would you do about illegal migration?
Starmer says the government has lost control. People want the crossings stopped. He says he would look at credible ways of stopping this. Gangs are running this. The boats are being made to order, and stored in France. As DPP he worked with other countries on breaking up gangs. And he refuses to believe that these are the only gangs that cannot be stopped.
As for processing claims offshore, he says there is a difference between processing claims offshore, and just deporting people, which is the Rwanda policy.
He says the Ukraine scheme includes an element of offshore processing. Other countries are looking at this, and he would be open to the idea, he says.
UPDATE: Starmer said:
There’s a difference, obviously, between processing offshore and deporting people to places like Rwanda. And that does happen in some cases already.
The Ukraine scheme has an element of processing offshore before people arrive in this country. It can be done.
I’m open to sensible suggestions and credible solutions to what is very obviously a problem.
I’ve simply refused to back down from my central proposition that I do not accept that you can smash drug gangs, terrorist gangs, people-smuggling gangs, but somehow everybody does not think you can smash the gangs that are running this foul trade in the first place.
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Starmer says he's 'fundamentally opposed' to cutting inheritance tax
Q: If the Tories cut inheritance tax, will you support that?
Starmer says the Tories have floated this idea many times. Labour does not support that.
From the i’s Hugo Gye
Starmer asked whether he would reverse any cuts to inheritance tax: “We are fundamentally opposed to what the Tories are pretending they are going to do... Further tax breaks for those who are the most well-off with nothing for working people are not a good idea.”
Starmer asked whether he would reverse any cuts to inheritance tax: "We are fundamentally opposed to what the Tories are pretending they are going to do... Further tax breaks for those who are the most well-off with nothing for working people are not a good idea."
— Hugo Gye (@HugoGye) January 4, 2024
UPDATE: Starmer said:
We’re fundamentally opposed to what the Tories are pretending they are going to do.
They floated this last year, they’re floating it again now, I don’t know whether they’re going to do it. But I would’ve thought by now that they would’ve learned the lesson that further tax breaks for those who are the best-off with nothing for working people is not a good idea.
I don’t believe in tax breaks for those who are already well-off when there’s nothing on offer for working people. So, I wouldn’t be doing what they’re floating.
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Starmer says, if fiscal rules do not allow borrowing needed for £28bn green jobs investment, it won't happen
Q: [From Christopher Hope from GB News] How will you fund your £28bn green jobs programme?
Starmer says he wants to achieve clean power [electricity generation] by 2030. He has said the £28bn will be ramped up in the second half of the parliament. He says it will include money already put in by the government. The rest will come from borrowing. But if the fiscal rules do not allow that borrowing, it won’t happen, he says.
Q: Has Luke Littler’s perfomance in the darts showed that 16-year-olds should get the vote?
Starmer says he does not watch darts regularly. But this tournament has been electrifiying. He says he is a big supporter of 16-year-olds, incuding having the vote.
UPDATE: Starmer said:
Luke Littler, I mean it has been incredible watching the darts, seeing what he has done.
I am not going to claim I watch darts every day, everybody knows football is my game, but it has been an electrifying couple of days.
I am a big believer in 16-year-olds being able to express their views, have their vote and win darts tournaments. I thought he did brilliantly, I think everybody is incredibly proud of him as a 16-year-old.
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Starmer says Labour has set out 'precisely what we are going to do'
Q: People say they don’t know what a Starmer government stands for. What are you getting wrong?
Starmer says last year he set out five missions for government. There is no lack of clarity in those ideas, he says.
He says Labour has set out “precisely what we are going to do”.
Q: [From ITV’s Anushka Asthana] Labour has criticised the Tories for freezing income tax thresholds. Will you unfreeze them?
Starmer says he wants people to pay less tax.
But the first lever he will pull is growth.
Labour has said where it would raise taxes.
As Pat McFadden said on the Today programme, any Labour tax cuts would have to be fair and affordable, he says. (See 9.55am.)
Q: [From Sky’s Beth Rigby] On tax you more or less ape the Tories. And you seem to be ditching the £28bn green investment plan. Isn’t there a danger voters will see you as too cautious, and not an agent of change?
Starmer says there is a fundamental difference between a decade of decline and a decade of national renewal.
He says his missions are ambitious. He wants the highest sustained growth in the G7. That would make a huge difference, he says.
He has committed to halving violence against women and girls. He knows how hard that will be. No one says that won’t make a difference.
And making the NHS fit for the future – no one says that won’t make a difference, he says.
He says he has set out his case.
Starmer is now taking questions.
Q: [From the BBC’s Chris Mason] You say people are right to be anti-Westminster. But you accuse the Tories of being cynical. Aren’t you talking down the institutions you want to lead?
No, says Starmer. He says populism and nationalism thrive on division, and that encourages people to be anti-Westminster.
The choice at the election is clear: a decade of decline, or national renewal.
He says no one queries the claim that we have had a decade of decline, because they know it’s true.
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Starmer says no one is saying that the years ahead will be easy.
But this is the only chance to change things, he says.
Labour will serve the people and grow every corner of the country. It has a plan, and it will work “in partnership with you”, he says.
He wants “a Britain standing tall again”.
That is your future, and this year we get it back.
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Starmer says Labour offers a calmer politics 'that treads a little lighter on all our lives'
Starmer says he is also promising “a politics that treads a little lighter on all of our lives”.
He says populist politics depends on having enemies. That is exhausting.
A politics for the common good is less colourful. There are fewer clips on social media. And it means people accepting they will not always get what they want.
He says the character of politics will change.
It will feel different. The character of politics will change, and with it the national mood. A collective breathing out, a burden lifted, and then, the space for a more hopeful look forward. Because the truth is, it’s this kind of politics and only this kind of politics that can offer real change.
Starmer says you can see this with the SNP in Scotland, or the Tories in England.
And he says he learned about this in Northern Ireland. Originally it was assumed that the nationalist community would never buy into the idea of a new version of the Royal Ulster Constabulary.
But that happened; Catholic men and women did step up to serve.
UPDATE: Starmer said:
With respect and service I also promise this: a politics that treads a little lighter on all of our lives.
Because that’s the thing about populism, or nationalism, any politics fuelled by division.
It needs your full attention. It needs you constantly focusing on this week’s common enemy. And that’s exhausting, isn’t it?
On the other hand, a politics that aspires to national unity, bringing people together, the common good, that’s harder to express, less colourful, fewer clicks on social media. And, in some ways, it’s more demanding of you.
It asks you to moderate your political wishes out of respect for the different wishes of others. 45 million voters can’t get everything that they want, that’s democracy.
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Starmer is now on the passage about cleaning up politics. (See 9.25am.)
Starmer says Tories can no longer win election on the economy because that's become their weakness, not their strength
Starmer says, on the economy, he wants an argument about who growth should serve.
And the answer is – working people.
He says the Tories believe the key to growth is driving down wages.
He says he has read claims that the Tories want to fight the election on the economy.
But what used to be their strength is now their weakness.
They claim to be the party of business, but they don’t support business. And they claim to be the party of tax cuts, despite taking tax levels to a new high.
He says Labour will “close the book on the trickledown nonsense once and for all”.
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Starmer says government is too centralised. But, despite hoarding power, it is also short on ambition. It mops up problems after they have occurred, instead of trying to prevent them.
He says Labour’s mission-led approach will mean “tackling tomorrow’s challenges today”.
Starmer is listing some of what Labour would do: change to the planning system, more police on the streets, cheaper bills because of Labour’s energy policy, opportunities for children, including technical excellence colleges, better mental health support in schools, and the NHS “back on its feet”, with a plan to cut waiting lists, paid for by removing non-dom status.
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Starmer says what keeps him up at night is “the shrug of the shoulder”, and the fear that people do not believe that change is possible.
Britain needs change, wants change, is crying out for change. And yet – trust in politics is now so low, so degraded, that nobody believes you can make a difference any more.
That after the sex scandals, the expenses scandals, the waste scandals, the contracts for friends, even in a crisis like the pandemic, people have looked at us and concluded we’re all just in it for ourselves.
A nation that is so exhausted, tired, despairing even, that they’ve given up on hope.
Starmer says, if Labour is not successful with its “project hope”, the Tories will exploit this sense of despair.
They want to take “the change option off the table altogether”.
And they are also trying to “salt the earth” so that, if Labour does win the election, it will find it harder to serve because people have become cynical, he argues.
He says Labour will serve people – if they vote Labour, if they are considering voting Labour, or if they have no intention of voting Labour at all. That’s because it is a party of service, he says.
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Starmer says people are 'right to be anti-Westminster and angry about what politics has become'
Starmer says people are “right to be anti-Westminster” and right to be angry about what politics has become.
You’re right to be anti-Westminster and angry about what politics has become.
But hold on to any flickering hope in your heart that things can be better, because they can, and you can choose it.
You can reject the pointless populist gestures and the low-road cynicism that the Tories believe is all you deserve. That’s all they have left now. After 14 years, with nothing good to show, no practical achievements to point towards, no purpose beyond the fight to save their own skins.
They can’t change Britain, so they try to undermine the possibility of change itself.”
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Starmer says being in opposition is frustrating, and he accuses the Tories of treating it as performance art.
He is now on the passage about his career in public service that was posted earlier. See 9.12am.
Keir Starmer is speaking now.
He says at the election, power will be transferred, not to him personally, but to voters.
If you’ve been breaking your back to keep trading, steering your business through the pandemic, the cost-of-living crisis, the challenge of Brexit and the chaos of Westminster.
If you’ve been serving our country, whether in scrubs or the uniform of your regiment and what you want now is a politics that serves you, then make no mistake - this is your year.
The opportunity to shape our country’s future rests in your hands.
And that is a new year message of hope: the hope of democracy, the power of the vote, and the potential for national renewal.
We can unite as a country “and get our future back”, he says.
He says he has been working four years on getting the country back and tilting government “back in the interests of working people”.
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At the Labour event Claire Hazelgrove, the Labour candidate for Filton and Bradley Stoke, is introducing Keir Starmer.
Filton and Bradley Stoke, which is a constituency just north of Bristol, is a target seat. The Conservative MP there, Jack Lopresti, had a majority of just 5,646 at the 2019 election.
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IFS chief says he was 'surprised' by report saying Labour considering tax cuts given pressure on public spending
Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the public spending thinktank, told the Today programme this morning that he was “pretty surprised” by the reports saying Labour is considering offering tax cuts at the general election. (See 9.55am.) He explained:
What you can do is cut some taxes while increasing other taxes by more, and that may be what the Labour party are talking about.
But what you can’t do given the state of the public finances, and given that both parties say that they’re focused on getting overall national debt down over the next parliament, if you really want to do that, then you can’t cut taxes and increase spending.
Indeed, you probably can’t cut taxes and keep spending anywhere near where it is. In other words, if you’re going to cut taxes yet get debt down then you’re going to have, frankly, another period of austerity on public services.
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Keir Starmer is due to start his speech shortly.
There is a live feed at the top of the blog.
Tax burden high, but Labour tax cuts would have to be 'fair, sustainable and affordable', says McFadden
In his Q&A Keir Starmer is likely to be asked about a report in yesterday’s Times saying Labour is considering offering cuts to income tax or national insurance in its manifesto. He will probably echo what Pat McFadden, the party’s national campaign coordinator, told the Today programme when asked this morning if this was true. McFadden said:
We are all conscious that the tax burden on working people is very high. But what we won’t do is do what the Conservatives did in 2022, which is let rip, crash the economy and leave the British people with a bill to pay the price.
The tax burden is very high. We are clear that any tax cuts have to be fair, have to be sustainable and have to be affordable.
Pat McFadden claims Labour has set out more policy ahead of general election than in past
Keir Starmer is regularly accused of not setting out a clear vision of what Labour would do in government. But this morning Pat McFadden, the party’s national campaign coordinator, who was doing a media round, said this was unfair. He said Labour had set out more policy than it had ahead of general elections in the past, including ahead of the 1997 election. He told the Today programme:
If I compare the list … which will be in Keir Starmer’s speech today with the pledge card that we produced in the run-up to the 1997 election, I would say we’d set out more policy in advance of this election than we did in the past.
(It’s worth pointing out that complaints about Labour not having an agenda for government are often, on closer inspection, complaints about Labour’s agenda for government being not sufficiently radical. That is a different charge, and one that is easier to sustain. Labour has announced a lot of policy, much of it set out in the 116-page national policy forum report.)
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Starmer to pledge to clean up politics with 'total crackdown on cronyism'
In his speech this morning Keir Starmer will also promise that Labour will clean up politics. He will say:
To change Britain, we must change ourselves. We need to clean up politics. No more VIP fast lanes, no more kickbacks for colleagues, no more revolving doors between government and the companies they regulate. I will restore standards in public life with a total crackdown on cronyism: this ends now.
I’ve put expense-cheat politicians in jail before and I didn’t care if they were Labour or Tory. Nobody will be above the law in a Britain I lead.
Kiran Stacey wrote about this aspect of the speech on Tuesday.
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Keir Starmer to accuse Tories of taking away people’s hope that general election can bring change
Good morning. Keir Starmer is marking the start of the new year with a major speech which he will be delivering at 10am. He did the same thing last year, with a speech that was heavy on policy, but this one is different because, judging by the fairly lengthy advance briefing given to journalists, it’s not about policy, and it’s not even mainly about positioning, or philosophy. It seems to be more basic than that, because it’s about mood: “hope”.
The word appears eight times in the Labour press release with extracts from the speech sent out overnight (or nine, if you include “hopeful”). Starmer will say that it’s an election year, that people want change, and that this should be a moment for hope.
This year, at the general election, against the understandable despair of a downtrodden country, I will ask the British people to believe in it again.
You’re right to be anti-Westminster and angry about what politics has become.
But hold on to any flickering hope in your heart that things can be better, because they can, and you can choose it.
He will argue that the Conservatives have governed so badly that people no longer believe a change of party will make a difference, or provide grounds for hope.
Britain needs change, wants change, is crying out for change. And yet – trust in politics is now so low, so degraded, that nobody believes you can make a difference any more.
That after the sex scandals, the expenses scandals, the waste scandals, the contracts for friends, even in a crisis like the pandemic, people have looked at us and concluded we’re all just in it for ourselves.
A nation that is so exhausted, tired, despairing even, that they’ve given up on hope.
He will insist that hope is merited, because Labour will govern differently.
We’re trying not just to defeat the Tories, but to defeat their entire way of doing politics, a mindset that seeks out any differences between the people of this country.
I have to warn you all, they will leave no stone unturned this year either. Every opportunity for division will be explored for political potential, that is a given.
But we have to bring the country together, and have to earn trust as well as votes. To truly defeat this miserabilist Tory project, we must crush their politics of divide and decline with Labour renewal.
And he will argue that he personally can ensure that Labour governs differently because of his commitment to public service.
I had a long career before this. At the Crown Prosecution Service, as a human rights lawyer, in my work with the Police Service of Northern Ireland. I’ve looked into the eyes of people I’ve served or represented and I have seen reflected back the knowledge that government can make or break a life.
Literally, when it comes to work I’ve done with people living on death row. Life and death decisions – placed in your hands.
There’s pressure that comes with that, but that’s the responsibility of justice and public service. And it’s the responsibility of serious government.
This isn’t a game. Politics shouldn’t be a hobby – a pastime for people who enjoy the feeling of power, and nor should it be a sermon from on high, a self-regarding lecture, vanity dressed up as virtue. No, it should be a higher calling.
The line about politics as a hobby seems to be a clear reference to Tories like Boris Johnson, George Osborne and David Cameron. But the reference to politics as “vanity dressed up as virtue” seems to be a dig at his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn.
It remains to be seen how convincing, or powerful, people will find this. The main news today is likely to emerge from the Q&A, and the interviews Starmer is giving later. But elections are often seen as a contest between hope and fear and, other things being equal, optimism is normally more appealing. That is why Starmer, who is not often mistaken for a shaft of sunlight, must be attracted to depicting Labour as the party of hope.
Here is Kiran Stacey’s preview, with more from the speech.
And here is the agenda for the day.
10am: Keir Starmer gives a speech at a venue near Bristol, and then holds a Q&A with journalists. He is then doing interviews with the main broadcasters.
10.15am: Steve Barclay, the environment secretary, speaks at the Oxford Farming Conference. Steve Reed, his Labour shadow, is also speaking.
Morning: Rishi Sunak is going on a visit in Nottinghamshire, where he is due to speak to regional reporters.
If you want to contact me, do try the “send us a message” feature. You’ll see it just below the byline – on the left of the screen, if you are reading on a laptop or a desktop. This is for people who want to message me directly. I find it very useful when people message to point out errors (even typos – no mistake is too small to correct). Often I find your questions very interesting, too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either in the comments below the line; privately (if you leave an email address and that seems more appropriate); or in the main blog, if I think it is a topic of wide interest.
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