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The upheaval in US politics and the likely return of Donald Trump to the White House has propelled the UK to the front of the western alliance now trying to contain Russia’s war in Ukraine and Moscow’s campaign of disruption across several continents.
Mr Trump has once again pledged to wind down American backing for the Ukraine government in facing down the Russian invasion. This position has been stated more strongly by his new vice-presidential candidate JD Vance. But even a Kamala Harris presidency is likely to row back on support for Nato in Europe.
The Starmer government has been pitched into Nato leadership as the alliance faces increasing confrontation from Russia, new tactics and techniques of interference. With its whopping parliamentary majority, the UK Labour government is seen as the strongest and most stable of the lead European Nato allies — in contrast with the constitutional chaos in France, and the weakness of Olaf Scholz’s coalition in Germany.
The UK’s military leadership is keen to emphasise that “we are not at war with Russia — and it is unlikely that Russia will invade a Nato member in the near future,” in the words of a senior Whitehall source. “But we face increased instability and disruption in places like Moldova — from the Russians — and the Houthis in Yemen threatening global maritime commerce.” Close allies such as Norway, Sweden, Finland and Poland put the threat from Russia more bluntly. The Norwegian defence staff describes northern and eastern Europe as being in a state of “pre-war”, which could rapidly develop into outright conflict.
Sir Keir Starmer has launched a “root-and-branch” defence review to overhaul UK defences and the armed services, which his government says is undermanned, poorly recruited, short of vital equipment and “hollowed out” by the previous government’s mistaken policies. The Strategic Defence Review isn’t due to report until next summer, whereas field commanders and service chiefs believe that urgent reforms and repairs could, and should, be enacted now. The head of the review, former Nato secretary-general and Labour defence secretary Lord Robertson, has warned of the threat “from a deadly quartet of nations increasingly working together,” Russia, China, Iran and Kim Jong-un’s North Korea. “We have got to be able to confront that particular quartet.”
Russia’s advances in electronic warfare, and cyber operations are causing growing alarm. On the battlefield in Ukraine they are jamming drones and rocket artillery and howitzer guidance systems. The Army conference in London heard this week that only one shell in 20 from Ukrainian artillery is hitting its target.
There is concern, too, about the universal reliability of the GPS (global positioning satellite) system. Missiles and drones of all sides rely on these satellite signals – as do most civilian air and road vehicle satnavs. Lately there have been several spectacular examples of GPS hacking, from blinding Ukrainian drones to interfering with instruments and guidance systems of civilian aircraft. Finland’s national airline Finnair grounded a number of flights after a suspected Russian attack.
In a separate incident, an Airbus civilian airliner on a factory trial from Toulouse suddenly found its instruments jammed and going into reverse – although it was flying 1,500 miles west of the Ukraine battlefields.
The war in Ukraine appears to be reaching a major inflection point as it reaches 900 days since the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022. Losses for Ukraine are horrendous — well over 200,000 killed, power systems destroyed and land polluted as Russia tries to steal Ukraine’s global leadership in fertiliser and cooking oil production.
As yet Ukraine has little answer to Russia’s use of air-launched glide bombs — refurbished bombs with new guide systems. President Zelensky insists Ukraine needs to target the airfield bases of the Russian bomber fleets with weapons like the UK, Italian and French Storm Shadow/Scalp.
Russia may have lost more than half a million killed and maimed, though this seems to not have had any impact on Vladimir Putin and his security cabal. Most days lately Russia has been suffering more soldiers lost than can be replaced — and more than 700,000 are now believed to be in and around the Ukraine theatre of operations.
Currently Russian forces are pressing on Pokrovsk in Donetsk and massing for another attack on Kharkiv — despite huge losses.
Flexibility will be the essence of UK defence reforms , especially in procurement and Whitehall bureaucracy. Kyiv can get better, quicker and cheaper missile air defence systems than London. A recent equipment order for about £100 million needed 1,200 days for bureaucratic certification and approval in Whitehall — the equivalent for Kyiv would take less than six weeks.
The UK needs to adopt a strategy of disruption to face the axis of disruption of Russia and its allies. Perhaps the biggest strategic surprise for Sir Keir and Defence Secretary John Healey is that they have been put into the hot seat of leading Nato on Ukraine and mitigating Russia’s instability offensive, much earlier than they could have anticipated only three weeks ago, on the eve of their election to power.
