Sir Keir Starmer ended 2022 with a comfortable poll lead over the Conservatives and in firm control of his party.
The Tory party’s implosion - first under Boris Johnson and then during Liz Truss’s brief spell in No10 - has set the Labour leader and his party on a path to power.
But with Britain facing its biggest wave of industrial action in decades and a looming recession, the pressure is growing on Sir Keir to set out his vision for how a Labour government would help fix the country.
As the Labour leader prepares to give his new year’s speech in east London on Thursday, the Evening Standard considers five big challenges facing him in 2023.
1. Keep Labour united
Sir Keir’s first priority after becoming leader in April 2020 was to banish the hard left of his party - symbolised by former leader Jeremy Corbyn - after its worst general election result since 1935. Nearly three years on the Corbynite wing of the party has largely been marginalised.
The Labour leader even felt confident enough during his Christmas drinks for journalists to poke fun at potential leadership rival and self declared ‘King of the North’ Andy Burnham.
With polling by Ipsos at the start of December showing Labour with a 26 point lead over the Conservatives, even critics of Sir Keir know speaking out now could risk victory in 2024.
But that could change quickly if Rishi Sunak is able to show the economy is turning sooner than expected.
“The election could still be two years away and if we have learnt anything over the past decade it is that a lot can happen in two years,” says Ben Nunn, the Labour leader’s former Director of Communications.
“Labour can’t take voters for granted. It has no automatic right to win in 2024, it has to earn the right to win. That’s why Starmer must be ruthless over the party in his determination and discipline to win the next election.”
2. Show middle England that Labour can be trusted on the economy
In her speech to the Labour Conference in September, Sir Keir’s Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves hammered home the message that Labour was now the party of economic responsibility.
In more recent weeks Ms Reeves and the Labour leader have been wooing business leaders as they try to dispel fears that a Labour Government would hike taxes and public spending at a time when the public finances are already under intense strain.
It’s a message which has been easier to sell in the wake of Ms Truss’s disastrous mini budget which led to a fall in the value of sterling and a rise in the cost of Government borrowing.
But with strikes now causing major disruption across a range of sectors, Sir Keir faces a difficult task of expressing sympathy with workers who are seeing their pay squeezed by inflation and not spooking centre right voters who might buy Tory claims that he is too close to the unions.
Mr Nunn added: “Keir’s task in 2023 is to keep his and the party’s focus on the economy, solidify Labour’s lead on the issue and to demonstrate to voters his party is the only party that can be trusted to get Britain’s economy growing again.
“It’s the issue that will define the next election. And yet, it is too easy in politics to get knocked off course by your opponent or distracted by events in Westminster.”
3. Sell an optimistic vision for the country
Veteran Labour MP Dame Margaret Hodge argues Sir Keir’s progress in 2022 has “exceeded my expectations”. But she warned the Labour leader that he must now press his foot down on the accelerator and offer a brighter future to voters who are fed up following a series of economic blows.
“2022 has been a horrific year for my constituents and the country,” said the MP for Barking. “And 2023 doesn’t look much better.
“We are feeling really gloomy, there’s nothing to cheer us up and we need a way through that.
“We didn’t promise a lot in 1997,” she adds reflecting on Labour’s landslide victory under Tony Blair after 18 years out of power. “But we promised a different approach and a set of values.”
John McTernan, a political strategist at consultancy BCW and a former adviser to Mr Blair, added: “He needs to develop a retail offer that connects with voters.
“Keir needs to be clear about the question facing Britain and then offer Labour as the only answer. It can’t just be sweeping up after the Tories.”
4. Show he is a winner
The May local elections will provide Labour with another opportunity to show they are building momentum towards the general election, widely expected to come in the autumn of 2024.
The Conservatives suffered heavy losses in last year’s local elections with Labour seizing control of flagship Tory boroughs in London like Westminster and Wandsworth. But Sir Keir will need to show he can build on those results when the 2023 elections take place in 179 district authorities, 30 unitary authorities and 33 metropolitan districts.
Mr McTernan says it is important that Sir Keir shows he understands the big issues on voters’ minds.
“No one wants 800 pages of policy from Labour,” he said. “They want a story. He has got to go where the public are - cost of living and the economy, housing, the NHS, crime and the collapse of policing.”
He adds that Sir Keir will need to step up his profile and get round the country in 2023. “People need to understand who he is,” he said.
5. Showcase his top team
Mr McTernan says Sir Keir has assembled a strong shadow cabinet with experienced figures like Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and up and coming stars like Shadow Heath Secretary Wes Streeting.
The challenge now, he says, is for Sir Keir to showcase them.
“They’ve got to come out in the new year and be presented as a team,” he said. “I would like to hear more big policy speeches from them.”
At the same time, Sir Keir will need to keep exposing weaknesses in Mr Sunak’s own Government.
Mr Nunn added: “His task is to expose Rishi Sunak as a weak prime minister presiding over a divided government and himself as a strong opposition leader presiding over a united alternative.
“Voters are drawn to strength and unity in politics. They want to see leaders that are decisive and take tough decisions - even if they don’t agree with them. Tory divisions mean Sunak will struggle to show strength. Starmer has the space and authority to show it.”
