REFORM UK look set to “fragment the Unionist vote” – which could help a pro-independence majority at Holyrood in a push for a second referendum, Professor John Curtice has said.
The polling expert gave his verdict to The National after new polling from Find Out Now showed that the SNP were on course to remain by far the largest party at Holyrood in the 2026 elections.
The polling projected constituency vote shares of 35% for the SNP, 19% for Labour, 15% for the Tories, 11% for Reform UK, and 9% for the LibDems. On the regional lists, it predicted 26% for the SNP, 17% for Labour, 14% for the Tories, 13% for the Greens, 11% for Reform UK, 10% for the LibDems, and 6% for Alba.
Analysing the polling, Curtice said it would lead to a pro-independence majority of 15 should it be repeated in the elections in around 17 months’ time. The SNP would win 54 MSPs, the Greens 15, and Alba three, he projected.
On the Unionist side, Curtice projected that Scottish Labour would become the second largest party – despite their support having “fallen precipitately”. Labour were projected to return 19 MSPs, the Tories 16, the LibDems 12, and Reform UK 10.
Curtice, a professor of politics at Strathclyde University considered the UK’s foremost polling expert, said the polling data showed Reform gaining especially from the Conservatives, but also from Labour and the LibDems, while hardly any SNP voters were switching to the party.
He noted that Labour appeared to be losing voters to Reform, the Conservatives, and the SNP.
Curtice said: “Today's poll is further evidence that Anas Sarwar's hopes of displacing John Swinney as First Minister have rapidly diminished since Labour's heady election victory in July.
“As south of the Border, Labour's support in Scotland has fallen precipitately in the wake of a UK Labour Government that voters hoped would begin to turn the economy and public services around but which in practice has proven something of a disappointment in their eyes.
“Meanwhile, Reform are continuing to poll at a level that could be enough for the party to secure some 10 or so MSPs at Holyrood at the next Scottish election in May 2026. Such an outcome would add a new and potentially disruptive element to Scottish politics.
“Meanwhile, by taking votes primarily from Conservative, Labour and the Liberal Democrats, Reform's advance threatens to further fragment the Unionist vote. That could potentially make it easier for pro-independence parties to retain their Holyrood majority, and thereby keep alive the possibility of a second independence referendum.”
On the fortunes of Swinney’s SNP, Professor Curtice said that while they “now enjoy a significant lead over Labour, and as a result appear to have some prospect of remaining in government after the next election, the party's popularity is still well below what it routinely enjoyed before Nicola Sturgeon's resignation in February 2023”.
“At the moment, another round of potentially difficult minority government could well be the best that it can reasonably hope to achieve,” he added.
Find Out Now surveyed 1774 Scottish adults aged 18+ between December 17-24.
