By now you’ve probably realised there are an awful lot of moving parts to Bristol City’s summer transfer window. Unlike 2021, where Nigel Pearson simply released 10 players, re-signed two and brought four new faces in, this period has a seemingly endless number of permutations as to how it’ll play out.
Can City keep hold of Alex Scott and Antoine Semenyo? Can they afford to sell one if it permits strengthening elsewhere, and how much is that process tied to a high-profile departure in the first place? Would a fee for Han-Noah Massengo on an expiring contract constitute such a significant exit? What if Lloyd Kelly, Adam Webster or Josh Brownhill are sold elsewhere earning resale revenue? What if Timm Klose and/or Robbie Cundy don’t renew their contracts? Is there scope for selling Dan Bentley and/or Tomas Kalas as they enter the final years of their agreements? Is that even feasible, given desires to move other players out and the impact that then has on squad numbers? We can keep going, but this paragraph is becoming unmanageable and hopefully you get the picture.
Not everything can take place at the same time but, equally, every conceivable scenario is interlinked in some way, principally through economic measures rather than sporting strategy.
In his second summer window at Ashton Gate, Nigel Pearson must look to improve his squad through the (mainly free) transfer market while also reducing his wage bill in a depressed financial landscape, whereby very few of City’s peers are spending money and there is a near-consensus across the Championship of bringing wages down to a set level.
Pearson and City, of course, are not alone and just from an outsider observation point of view, the concept of squad building and the various circumstances and scenarios that can unfold and how clubs react is a major part of what makes it interesting; every team has its own backstory heading into the market and it’s far beyond - we must sign Player X, Y and Z.
We may be guilty of highlighting this for narrative effect but one subplot that underpins a lot of what City would like to do over the next three months revolves around Kasey Palmer and moving the playmaker, and specifically his salary, somewhere else.
It’s become a millstone around the necks of three City head coaches and the use of “it’s” is very much specific because that pronoun is far more relevant in the context of the situation than “he’s”.
To explain, we probably need to go back three years to the summer of 2019, the last major transfer window in the pre-pandemic age when Championship largesse was at its peak, and clubs spoke about a desire to attain “sustainability” but, in reality, they were largely hollow words that were only credible in the event of promotion to the Premier League.
Clubs were continuing gambling money for wages and transfer fees on revenue that effectively didn’t exist.
That summer, there was a feeling that it was time City needed to go for it. The previous campaign had seen Lee Johnson’s side again fall short of the play-offs - four points compared to eight in 2018/19 - but the belief was the squad was there to improve, it just needed some alterations.
Eleven new signings probably constitutes more than “some” but it proved a statement of intent, albeit against the backdrop of selling their best player in Adam Webster too late in the window and not replacing him. But that intake included a new goalkeeper in Dan Bentley - with the position something of a curse in the previous nine months; a supposed upgrade on Marlon Pack in Adam Nagy; a bona fide coup in the arrival of Han-Noah Massengo from Monaco; and a quick and nimble striker of some reputation in Benik Afobe
Among the raft of new faces onto the Ashton Gate roof were the returning Chelsea loanees - Tomas Kalas, Jay Dasilva and Kasey Palmer. Consensus opinion was that the first two were absolute musts, after the campaigns they had enjoyed on loan, while the third wasn’t as demanded but he remained a popular and intriguing figure amongst the fanbase.
Contrary to popular conspiracy-theory based opinion, Palmer was not a “buy three to get two” signing to facilitate the Kalas and Dasilva deals, nor was he thrust upon Johnson by Mark Ashton. The City head coach had always considered him a player with enormous potential who had the capabilities to be the best No10 in the division - that missing x-factor - and travelled to London to help convince Palmer of that vision, with that pitch helping the deal go through.
But there was something about the arrival of the gifted Chelsea playmaker at the time that didn’t sit right. Johnson had always maintained that he wanted him for a full pre-season, but the signing didn’t go through until July 31, just four days before the start of the new campaign.
City had Jamie Paterson already in the building (albeit with a loan to Derby County being formulated), Sammie Szmodics - a sort Weimann-ey false 10 - was also brought in, admittedly as more of a medium-term project, while the Austrian himself, as we all very much know, was ready to be a central forward/attacking midfielder.
With Callum O’Dowda and Niclas Eliasson also as wingers, there wasn’t, at least to the naked eye an obvious regular starting role for Palmer in Johnson’s system, as had been the case down the back-end of the previous season when he was on loan. And yet here he was in BS3 signing a four-year contract on a salary that very much indicated that was the plan.
Admittedly, that presumption was blown out of the water by the early stages of the season when Palmer and Benik Afobe struck upon a partnership that looked to have transformed City into a vibrant attacking team. Fate though would strike in the cruellest of ways as Afobe sustained an ACL at Failand and, as we’ve watched through gritted teeth, the concept of Palmer slotting through-balls into Famara Diedhiou made for tough viewing.
Who knows how things may have played out had Afobe not been injured (a question regularly asked through that season) but since that fleeting marriage of styles and ideas, there’s never been an obvious role for him in the team beyond his enduringly frustrating typecasting of being an impact substitute.
We’re not going to go old over ground but neither Johnson or Dean Holden - who loaned him out to Swansea City for half a season - could find a system that suited Palmer, or felt he should be a priority to do so. That was fine, to a point, up to March 2020 but very soon the luxury of having him as a squad option became an obstruction for much wider issues.
The pandemic, as we know, exposed the ludicrous wage spending of teams up and down the division and, more than ever, redefined players as contracts as much as individuals. Every pound had to be justified, whether that be in minutes or goal production. Teams couldn’t afford to have players not on the field earning money that was a huge departure from their actual position in the squad in a sporting sense.
No one emphasises this more than Palmer in 2020/21 under Pearson who initially considered the 25-year-old a project worth pursuing - “he’s a great lad, he wants to learn” - but something happened to change that perception; it may well have been the 2-1 defeat to Nottingham Forest at Ashton Gate when he was brought on as a 77th-minute substitute before the late Lyle Taylor deluge, but very quickly Palmer went from impact substitute to pariah.
It’s a rather astonishing fact that he didn’t play a single minute of Championship football from October 19 onwards, in what was City’s 12th league game of the season. Yes, there were niggling injuries in his back and knee, but to not at least try and get some usage out of one of your highest-paid players says a lot of things, one being Pearson’s opinion of the midfielder, who was exiled to train with the Under-23s at one point.
Having tried and failed to move him in January, the inactivity continued down the second half of the season with the belief that someone would lift the burden in the summer.
It would be a fresh start for everyone. City could alleviate the wage bill, allowing Pearson to invest elsewhere in the squad simply by having a chunk of money available to distribute to other areas of the team and Palmer would get the chance to (hopefully) move to a coach more in line with his talents and how to get the best out of them.
Except, already, on May 26 with the transfer window not even open yet that utopia is looking as far away as ever; an intended move to Cardiff City looks to be over - although City still believe something can be concluded - and Palmer is scheduled to return for pre-season testing on June 10.
It’s not quite a nightmare scenario but it’s certainly a restless one laden with a few cold sweats for Richard Gould as he glances at the balance sheet. Because not only does the prospect of Palmer staying potentially block availability in the wage bill for new players, it means what transpired last season could well be repeated - a player earning a high-end Championship wage simply not providing any value on the pitch.
It is, at this stage, easy to blame Palmer. Why would you spend a year - which would, in effect, be at least 18 months when taking this season into consideration - on the sidelines? The very simple answer to that is because his options widen as a free agent in 2023, far more so than they do as someone under contract in 2022 on what is a less than agreeable salary.
The wage ceiling across the Championship is falling dramatically. Teams are operating within what can be described as a virtual salary cap whereby, for the non parachute payment endowed teams, top-end offers are no longer well in excess of £20,000-a-week but £15,000-a-week becomes the red line. Plenty would want to sign Palmer but what was a competitive Championship salary in 2019 now looks reckless in today’s landscape.
There will be a valid counter-argument that he should make his own concessions over wages and simply take a pay cut to engineer a move away to play some actual association football which he can be exceptionally good at. There is merit in that assertion but it’s also idealistic and naïve to the football industry.
Players have limited careers, they have to maximise their earnings and unless he secures a Premier League move in future this could very well be the most Palmer ever earns from a contract. Why would you want to give that up so readily in such an uncertain financial climate? Maybe it should happen, but it doesn't, for good reason.
Rightly or wrongly (and we never know the full story just often a small representation of one) there could even be an element of resentment as to how he's been treated. That feeling could also be reciprocated on the other side of the table.
City are acting in their own interest, just as much as Palmer is. And there is no shame in that, as annoying as it may seem. It's just business. But it is a problem that simply won’t go away for the club, who at this stage probably have more to lose, as it’s an uncomfortable stand-off that has ramifications far beyond the prospects of the club’s No45. For the sake of everyone concerned, a resolution must be found. And sooner rather than later.
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