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Donald Trump’s allies running for Senate in must-win states, and several swing states, are polling far behind the GOP presidential nominee, a warning for Mitch McConnell and other Republican leadership fighting to take control of the upper chamber of Congress.
Polling averages collected by Axios show potentially make-or-break gaps between Trump and his allies, signaling that even a close Trump victory in crucial swing states will not guarantee a victory for the candidates he endorsed.
That could mean voters are looking to split their tickets this fall — backing Trump in the presidential race and Democrats in down-ballot races. Should Trump win back the White House, and Democrats retain control of the Senate, with potentially an even greater majority, they could stifle his legislative agenda.
The phenomenon is not limited to swing states. In Ohio, Trump-endorsed Senate candidate Bernie Moreno is averaging only 42 percent to Trump’s 51.5 percent — the largest gap between Trump and his pack of Senate hopefuls.
In Montana, where Trump is widely expected to cruise to victory, Senate candidate Tim Sheehy is polling at only 50 percent. And in Texas, Ted Cruz — who is fighting to keep his career alive in a closer-than-expected Senate race — the Republican trails Trump by three percentage points.
Kari Lake in battleground Arizona is averaging 43.4 percent to Trump’s 49.3 percent in that state. Pennsylvania Senate candidate David McCormick is polling at 44.8 percent to Trump’s 48.2 percent, and Nevada’s Sam Brown is averaging only 40.7 percent while Trump is at 47.6 percent.
The narrowest margin is in Wisconsin, where Trump is polling ahead of his endorsed candidate Eric Hovde by roughly 2 percentage points. Both candidates are polling under 50 percent.
“Senate Republicans have a roster of deeply flawed candidates and their lies, scandals and baggage repel voters of every political persuasion, including many Republicans,” Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee communications chair, David Bergstein, told The Independent in a statement.
Trump is outperforming other Republicans “because his base is broader than the traditional GOP coalition,” Republican congressman Jim Banks, who is running for Senate, told Axios.
There is one notable exception. Republican Larry Hogan — former governor of Maryland now running for Senate in the state — is polling nearly 10 points ahead of Trump in the Democratic-leaning state. Hogan has said he won’t be voting for the former president and has rejected his endorsement.
The Independent has requested comment from the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
