A Heavyweight Coaching Duel in the West: Bill Self vs. John Calipari, But Not Where You’d Expect
March Madness always delivers surprises. This time, it gives us a matchup worthy of a Final Four—but instead, it’s happening on the first Thursday of the tournament. Kansas vs. Arkansas. Bill Self vs. John Calipari.
Two of college basketball’s most accomplished coaches meet in the first round. A No. 7 seed against a No. 10. A battle of two teams that were supposed to be more than this. And yet, here they are.
For Arkansas, the John Calipari era began like a lightning strike. An 11-2 start had the Razorbacks looking like contenders, but when the SEC schedule arrived, so did reality. A five-game losing streak in January sent them into freefall. Then, just when all seemed lost, they flipped the switch. A 5-1 finish to the regular season pushed them into the tournament, even after a quick exit in the SEC Tournament.
Kansas was supposed to be here—but not like this. The preseason No. 1 team, the favorite to win the national title, the roster loaded with experience and talent. But the Jayhawks never truly looked the part. Instead of dominance, there was disjointedness. Instead of a championship-caliber team, there was a 6-7 stumble to close the season. And now, instead of preparing for a deep run, they face elimination on the first weekend.
One. More. Sleep. pic.twitter.com/NhzvJnr9Ck
— Kansas Men’s Basketball (@KUHoops) March 19, 2025
Kansas vs. Arkansas Picks and Best Bets
All Michigan vs. UC San Diego odds are from BetOnline and are correct as of Wednesday, Mar. 19.
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Spread
Kansas -5.5 -
Moneyline
Kansas -215, Arkansas +180 -
Over/Under
146.5 -
Game Time
7:10 p.m. ET -
Location
Amica Mutual Pavillion | Providence, RI -
How To Watch
CBS
The Matchup: Two Teams, One Identity
Arkansas and Kansas might have taken different roads to this moment, but their styles of play mirror each other. Both teams rely on size, athleticism, and interior scoring. Both teams struggle from beyond the arc. And both teams push the pace in transition.
Kansas averages 37 points in the paint per game (28th nationally), and Arkansas isn’t far behind at 34.8 PITP (69th). That means fewer three-point barrages and more battles at the rim.
Media day shenanigans pic.twitter.com/FLpe9wncQp
— Arkansas Razorbacks Men’s Basketball 🐗 (@RazorbackMBB) March 19, 2025
But here’s where Arkansas might have an edge: The Hogs have shot-blockers. They average 5.6 blocks per game, making it much tougher for Kansas to finish at the rim. And the Jayhawks, already limited from three-point range, don’t have the shooters to force Arkansas to adjust. If Kansas settles for mid-range shots, the Razorbacks will gladly take that trade-off.
Best Bets: Arkansas +4.5
The biggest difference for Arkansas down the stretch? Points. The Razorbacks found their rhythm offensively, and it carried them to the tournament.
- They are 11-0 when scoring more than 81 points.
- 16-3 when scoring more than 74.
- 19-4 when scoring more than 67.
- And just 1-9 when held under 68.
If the Razorbacks can get into an offensive flow, history says they win. And Kansas—despite all its talent—hasn’t shown it can string together consistent defensive performances.
Arkansas is dealing with key injuries heading into this one. Junior forward Adou Thiero (15.6 PPG) is doubtful with a knee injury that has already sidelined him for six games. The good news? Freshman guard Boogie Fland (15.1 PPG) is back after missing 15 games with a hand injury. How much he plays and how effective he is could swing this game. I think this number is a bit too much, and Arkansas can keep this within the number and possibly even end up victorious.
What’s Next?
The winner here likely draws St. John’s in the next round—unless Omaha pulls off a massive upset. That means another battle with an elite coach, Rick Pitino, waiting in the wings.
For now, though, the focus is on two programs, two legends, and one game.
Kansas. Arkansas. Self. Calipari.
This is what March is all about.
