The good news for Kamala Harris? She is still leading Donald Trump among Latino voters in Arizona and Nevada, two key battleground states in the upcoming 2024 election, accordint to a new poll by USA Today/ Suffolk University. The bad news? Her support among young Latino men, a key demographic, is dwindling.
In Arizona, 51% of Latino men aged 18-34 back Trump, while 39% support Harris. This pattern holds in Nevada, where 53% of Latino men aged 18-34 favor Trump, with 40% siding with Harris. On the flipside, Harris holds a major advantage among Latina women of all age over Trump in both states, a demographic that could prove to be crucial since they make up 21% of registered women voters in Arizona and 22% in Nevada.
While Harris has focused on reproductive rights, young Latino men supporting Trump are more concerned about economic issues, a field she has had trouble engaging with overall voters.
Overall, the findings revealed that, in Arizona, 57% of Latino voters said they plan to vote for Harris, while 38% favor Trump. In Nevada, the numbers are similar, with Harris leading Trump 56% to 40%. However, analysts caution that the margin of support among overall Latino voters is still lagging behind Joe Biden in 2020, when he won the demographic in Arizona by 24 points and in Nevada by 26 points.
An analysis by Axios in August explained that, over the last half century. Democratic presidential candidates have usually needed to secure at least 64% of the Latino vote to win. As Latinos today comprise nearly 20% of the U.S. population, their support is even more crucial for both parties' chances of victory come November.
David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University Political Research Center, told USA Today that while it's good news for Harris that she's leading with Latino voters in both states, the current margin likely won't be enough for her to claim victories there:
"It's only young people and males, but that offset ... is the reason why Harris' numbers are not where they should be (for her to win)."
Elsewhere, the study revealed that inflation and immigration are top concerns for Latino voters in both states. In Nevada, 37% of Latino voters cited inflation as their primary issue, while immigration ranked second at 17%. Similar priorities emerged in Arizona, with 29% naming inflation as their top concern, followed by immigration at 15%. Abortion and national unity were also mentioned as key issues.
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