Kamala Harris is taking the lead with a key voting bloc in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, at least as early voting continues ahead of Election Day: seniors.
Figures in the state show that 58 percent of votes by the demographic have cast by registered Democrats, compared to only 35 percent from Republicans. This is a warning sign for former President Donald Trump considering the GOP has won the senior vote in the last five presidential elections and both parties have the same amount of registered voters in the state.
Voters over 65 years of age have cast almost half of all early ballots in Pennsylvania, and while Republicans are counting on getting a larger turnout than Democrats on Election Day, recent polling shows the Republican losing support with the demographic over the past weeks: according to a Fox News poll, he is now trailing Harris by five percentage points, a large drop compared to the previous month, when they were tied. Trump won the senior vote in 2020, getting 53% of the support.
Democratic analysts are cautiously optimistic, with Tom Bonier, CEO of data firm TargetSmart, referring to the phenomenon as a "silver surge" in an interview with POLITICO. Republican strategist Charlie Gerow, in turn, pointed out that seniors, especially Republicans often prefer voting on Election Day, and predicted a large turnout for the GOP on November 5, according to the outlet. Trump and some allies have been alleging fraudulent practices in Pennsylvania, drawing pushback from election officials, according to a report by NBC News.
Trump recently addressed seniors in Pennsylvania, promising to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits and offer caregiver tax breaks. He described immigration as a "major senior issue." Harris, by contrast, has emphasized Medicare expansion and protecting Social Security. She has framed her platform around healthcare, reproductive rights, and democratic integrity, which Democratic strategist Bonier suggests may resonate with older women voters following the Dobbs decision on abortion.
The importance of senior voters across other battleground states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, is particularly relevant because they all have senior populations above the national average. Nationally, recent polling also shows a shift, with Harris leading Trump among voters 65 and older by five points — a swing from Trump's five-point lead among seniors in 2020.
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