A new national poll released by the Institute of Politics (IOP) at Harvard's Kennedy School is providing further details about the current state of the 2024 race for the White House.
Among likely voters aged 18 to 29, Vice President Kamala Harris commands a 31-point lead over former President Donald Trump. The poll, part of the Harvard Youth Poll series, showcases a major shift in youth engagement as Election Day inches closer.
In a two-way hypothetical matchup between Harris and Trump, the numbers show Harris leading 64% to 32% among likely voters. The lead grows as young people become more invested in the electoral process. Among all young adults surveyed, Harris still holds a double-digit advantage, 54% to 33%, but the gap widens to 64%-32% when only likely voters are considered.
From Biden to Harris
Harris's numbers represent a significant uptick from where President Joe Biden stood earlier in the cycle. In the Spring 2024 edition of the same poll, the president led Trump by a slim 3-point margin among young adults. But with Harris now leading the Democratic ticket, the momentum seems to have shifted, giving her a much larger edge over Trump.
Democratic Voter Enthusiasm Reaches New Heights
What's driving this shift? One key factor is voter enthusiasm. 74% of young Democrats say they will "definitely" vote in the upcoming election, compared to 60% of young Republicans. Over 80% of Harris supporters expressed enthusiasm about voting for the vice president, a sharp contrast to the 43% of Biden supporters who felt that way just six months ago.
Gender Gap Favoring Harris
Another factor working in Harris's favor: the gender gap. The poll reveals a widening divide between young men and women when it comes to their presidential preference. Harris is winning over 70% of likely female voters, compared to just 23% for Trump—a gender gap that has nearly doubled since the spring. Even among male voters, Harris holds a commanding lead, though by a smaller margin, at 53% to Trump's 36%.
Harris Scores Big on Personal Qualities
Harris is not only leading in raw voter numbers but also in personal qualities that resonate with younger generations. She outshines Trump in empathy (+33), relatability (+24), and honesty (+22). These soft skills, alongside clear leads on key issues like climate change, abortion, and healthcare, illustrate why young voters are leaning her way.
Progressive Policies and a Rejection of Project 2025
The youth vote is also heavily influenced by policy positions. The poll shows 74% of young voters support progressive proposals like capping prescription drug prices, while 59% favor a nationwide law legalizing abortion. Meanwhile, Project 2025 has found little traction among this demographic. Only 6% of young Americans have a favorable view of the policy set that Democrats have linked to Trump, with a stark 48% holding an unfavorable view. Trump, however, remains competitive on the economy, holding a narrow 1-point lead on that issue—a critical area that could shape future campaign strategies.
The Memes that Move the Needle
In today's world, social media isn't just for fun—it's shaping political opinions as well. 53% of young adults reported seeing memes about Harris online in the last month, with one-third saying these memes positively influenced their view of her. Trump also appears in the meme world, but with a different effect: 56% of young people reported encountering Trump memes, and a quarter of them said it negatively impacted their perception of him.
Harris vs. JD Vance
President Biden's job approval rating among young Americans remains steady at 32%, virtually unchanged since the spring. Harris, on the other hand, has seen a significant boost. Her job approval as Vice President has jumped to 44%, with her overall favorability rating at 47%. Comparatively, Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, struggle with unfavorable ratings of -30 and -28, respectively, among this young demographic.
Will Young People Show Up?
In 2024, Gen Z youth alone will make up over 40 million potential voters—including 8 million youth who will have newly reached voting age since 2022—making up nearly one-fifth of the American electorate. Together with the youngest Millennials, young people ages 18-34 are poised to be a powerful force in the next presidential election. Despite the numbers, Tufts University data shows that only 1 in 5 young people have heard about politics and issues this year from political parties and campaigns.
Historically, young voters have lower participation rates compared to older eligible voters. While the 2018 and 2020 elections saw record turnout among eligible voters aged 18-29—with 28% participating in the 2018 midterms and nearly 50% participating in the 2020 presidential election—those numbers don't come close to the approximately 60% of voters older than 45 and approximately 70% of voters older than 65 who consistently vote in midterm and presidential elections. The potential for young voters to impact the 2024 election is in their numbers, but whether they will actually come out to vote remains to be seen.
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