Vice President Kamala Harris has made significant gains in the election betting markets since taking over at the top of the Democratic ticket. According to the Real Clear Politics betting average, Trump entered Sunday with a 54.6% chance to win the election, while Harris stood at 39.2%, representing a spread of over 15.2 percentage points.
Although Trump still holds the favor in the market, the 15-point gap marks a notable shift over the past week. Prior to President Biden's decision to drop out of the race on July 20, Trump had a 61% chance to win, with Harris at 18.2% and Biden at 9.5%, creating a nearly 43-point gap between Trump and his closest competitor.
A similar trend is evident on PredictIt, a prediction market based in New Zealand, where Trump shares are currently priced at 54 cents and Harris shares at 48 cents. Given that shares are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, Trump's share price reflects a 54% chance of winning the election.
On PredictIt, Harris has significantly closed the gap with Trump over the past week. On July 20, Trump shares were selling for 64 cents, Harris for 27 cents, and Biden for 15 cents, indicating a decrease in the price to bet on Harris from 37 cents to six cents.
These shifts in the betting markets coincide with polls indicating a potentially close race between Trump and Harris. The Real Clear Politics national average shows Trump holding a slim 1.7 point lead over Harris. While polling in key battleground states has been limited, the data also suggests a tight contest.
Neither the Trump nor Harris campaigns have responded to requests for comment on these developments.
