In President Biden, the crypto world has long confronted a staunch critic whose administration has blocked laws to help the industry and focused almost entirely on enforcement. Now, after a historic weekend that saw Biden withdraw his re-election bid, the crypto industry must now size up his Vice President, Kamala Harris, who is all but certain to represent the Democrats on the 2024 ticket. Would crypto face more of the same under a Harris presidency—or would she take a softer stance?
Harris hails from the country's tech capital, California. While she went after social media platforms for sexual harassment during her time as the state's attorney general, she also cultivated a close relationship with executives like Meta's Sheryl Sandberg, leading to a reputation as a pro-business politician. Many in crypto hope she brings the same view to the campaign trail, and potentially to the White House.
"Given the growing bipartisanship we are seeing on the Hill, I'm hopeful that a Harris presidency would continue down this path," said Adam Minehardt, the head of global government relations at the Stellar Development Foundation and former chief of staff to Nydia Velázquez (D-N.Y.), in a text message to Fortune.
Sea change
The Biden administration may not have started with an anti-crypto bent, but the collapse of FTX and fallout from Sam Bankman-Fried's political donations set off a chain reaction of hostility. A series of congressional hearings in late 2022 and early 2023 highlighted the risks of blockchain platforms to consumers, and government agencies headed by Biden appointees like Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler brought lawsuits against some of the industry's largest players.
Despite the chilled atmosphere, centrist Democrats and Republicans have advanced several landmark pieces of legislation, including sweeping market structure regulation out of the House Financial Services Committee, as well as a bill to overturn a controversial SEC bulletin that received widespread bipartisan support. Meanwhile, former President Trump has embraced the blockchain sector, including a scheduled appearance at the Bitcoin conference later this week. His pick for vice president, Senator J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), has also carved out a niche as a crypto advocate and personally owns Bitcoin.
Harris may have ascended to becoming senator of California—and then vice president—as a pro-tech politician, but she has not publicly taken a stance on blockchain regulation. One crypto lobbyist, who spoke with Fortune on the condition of anonymity to speak candidly about evolving political dynamics, described the situation as "up in the air." They said that all eyes will be on Harris's VP pick—as well as which advisors she surrounds herself with.
When Biden became president, many of his economic advisors came from the progressive camp and specifically had worked with Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), a fierce crypto critic. Harris does not have the same connections. One crypto policy advisor and former Biden administration official, who spoke with Fortune on the condition of anonymity, said that Harris has largely been locked out of economic policy. "She doesn't have the same deal that Biden and Warren had, or even the same proximity to Warren's staff," they said. Still, Warren endorsed Harris soon after Biden withdrew his candidacy on Sunday.
If Harris is elected, the question will be whether she seeks to appoint a new chair of the SEC, with Gensler's term set to end in 2026, though she could push for a clean slate. The crypto lobbyist said it would be the "safer path" to keep the Biden administration's infrastructure in place.
Although Harris has not even secured the Democratic nomination, one blockchain trade group—the Digital Chamber—took the opportunity to publish a letter calling on her to support crypto legislation. "We believe this technology is non-partisan and the Democratic Party should also champion these innovations," they wrote.
