So Justin Fields might not be the next Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts. Can he at least be Sam Howell? For one day?
It’s hard to believe now, but only three weeks ago, comparing Fields to the career arcs of Allen and Hurts was a legitimate exercise.
Like Fields, Allen and Hurts are mobile quarterbacks with a passing game that needed refinement through their first two NFL seasons. In 2020, his third season, Allen went from an 85.3 passer rating to 107.2 and was the runner-up to Aaron Rodgers in NFL Most Valuable Player voting. In 2022, his third season, Hurts went from an 87.2 passer rating to 101.5 and was the runner-up to Patrick Mahomes in MVP voting.
With an 85.2 passer rating, a modest improvement in completion percentage (from 58.9 as a rookie to 60.4) and a record-setting 1,143-yard rushing season in 2022, Fields was arguably on that path.
Those expectations are at least on hold, if not eradicated, after Fields opened the season with three unimpressive performances — each one more disappointing than the previous one. Fields ranks 29th in the NFL in passer rating (67.7) among quarterbacks with two or more starts. His completion percentage (58.0) also is 29th.
So far, the next step for Fields has been backward. His best passer rating in three games is 78.2 against the Packers in the opener. His longest pass play is 33 yards to DJ Moore against the Buccaneers (33 quarterbacks in the NFL have a longer completion). His longest running play is 17 yards.
Bears offensive coordinator Luke Getsy is preaching patience — “It’s a 17-week process. It is not a three-week process,” he said.
Maybe it is. But why is quarterback development such a laborious process here? Why are other developmental quarterbacks showing tangible signs of progress?
The Texans’ C.J. Stroud threw for 280 yards and had a 118.7 passer rating in a victory over the Jaguars on the road in his third NFL start. The Cardinals’ Joshua Dobbs had a 120.0 passer rating in a victory over the Cowboys last week. The Steelers’ Kenny Pickett had a 108.5 passer rating in a victory over the Raiders on the road. The Falcons’ Desmond Ridder had a 111.8 passer rating in a victory over the Panthers.
All of them still have a long way to go and might not make it. But they’re providing at least a glimmer of hope. Why can’t Fields do that in Getsy’s offense?
Getsy, as is his custom, doesn’t see it that way.
“There are different offenses. There are different defenses. The opponents, they’re different,” Getsy said. “I think that’s not a fair comparison . . . it’s not apples to apples . . . comparing against each other.
“For us, it’s all about us improving. And how does an offense show improvement? You score points. If we don’t score points, then it looks like we don’t improve. When it comes down to it, we’ve just got to score points.”
I don’t know about that. It’s true that Fields hasn’t played against a bad defense yet. And three games is a relatively small sample size. But even if it hasn’t been apples to apples so far, it kind of is Sunday against the Broncos.
This is a defense that was torched by the Commanders’ Howell, the 2022 fifth-round draft pick who completed 27 of 39 passes (69.2%) for 299 yards and two touchdowns without an interception in a 35-33 victory over the Broncos in Week 2 at Empower Field at Mile High.
Fields and the Bears’ offense will be facing the same defense — maybe even a weaker Broncos defense without starting safety Justin Simmons and starting linebacker Josey Jewell. And at home. And it’s Week 4. With all due respect to Getsy, this is as apples-to-apples as it gets.
