Met Police chief Sir Mark Rowley said the Government was being forced to free prisoners earlier to avoid a situation that would be “really dangerous for the public”.
He stressed that ministers were having to adopt the “least worst option” of earlier releases amid warnings that if they did not jails would be full, leading to paralysis in the courts and police officers unable to arrest suspected offenders as there would be no place to detain them.
New Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood was on Friday unveiling emergency action to stop the criminal justice system imploding, with some inmates expected to be freed after serving 40 per cent of their sentence, rather than half.
Sir Mark told ITV’S Good Morning Britain: “The Government have got a situation where there is no easy solution.
“Prisons are very close to full and filling up.
“The worst possible thing would be for the system to block.”
He explained further: “If the system blocks in prisons, if they get completely full that kicks back into the courts and to what we do and that’s really dangerous for the public.
“So, the Government are forced into making a rapid decision to avoid that risk.
“It’s going to be the least worst option that they are going to have to find so I understand what they are trying to do however not ideal it is.”
Earlier, a jail chief said police would have to stop arresting suspected offenders if prisoners are not released earlier to prevent a “total collapse of the criminal justice system.
Mark Icke, vice president of the Prison Governors’ Association, backed the Government’s plans to release some inmates earlier.
As few as 700 places remain free to be used in the male prison estate, according to reports, which is less than half what is needed and is a situation threatening chaos.
Mr Icke told Sky News: “We have got to a point where we have got so many people in custody that we are near a total collapse of the criminal justice system.
“If we don’t release some of these prisoners, and we will risk assess all those prisoners before release....it will only be those that we deem safe and ready.
“The alternative is a total collapse of the criminal justice system so people not being arrested, not being able to be held in police cells, not being able to go to prison.”
Supporting freeing more prisoners earlier, he added: “Forty per cent will give us an ample opportunity to risk assess the right people ready for release and bring those into custody that absolutely need to be there.”
He admitted there was a risk in releasing every prisoner but insisted there were “very good risk assessment processes in place”.
The Justice Secretary is set to announce plans on Friday to address prison overcrowding amid fears jails will run out of space within weeks.
Ms Mahmood is expected to set out emergency measures that could include reducing the time before some prisoners are automatically released, following a tour of HMP Bedford and HMP Five Wells, in Northamptonshire.
She is expected to argue that the level of overcrowding, described by the Ministry of Justice as “catastrophic”, requires “immediate action” to “pull the justice system back from the brink of total collapse”.
Those convicted of sex offences, violent crime with a sentence of more than four years, domestic violence, stalkers, and anyone who has breached a harassment order are not expected to be eligible for early release.
For the prison system to run smoothly and effectively, officials ideally want to keep a buffer of 1,425 cell spaces free in men’s prisons at all times to make sure there is enough space to hold sudden influxes of inmates.
According to sources, just 700 are now free. It is understood the latest figures show 83,380 inmates are currently being held in the adult male estate.
A senior prison source warned: “If nothing was done, I would be professionally very, very worried by the August Bank Holiday.”
“You can’t leave an announcement much later than tomorrow because if you do, we’re not going to have sufficient time to do the checks before we get into a headroom problem.
“We’re operationally in trouble at less than 300 spaces left.”
On Thursday, the Prime Minister said the scale of the problem was “worse than I thought” and expressed anger at being faced with taking emergency measures so early in his premiership.
If nothing was done, I would be professionally very, very worried by the August Bank Holiday
Responding to a question at the Nato summit, Sir Keir called the crisis “unforgivable” and showed “gross irresponsibility” from the previous government.
One of the moves expected to be announced on Friday is a reduction in the amount of a sentence a prisoner must serve before being automatically released.
Most prisoners currently serve 50 per cent of their sentence in jail, with the remaining 50 per cent being served on licence and under threat of being returned to prison if they break their parole conditions.
But Friday’s announcement could see that reduced to 40 per cent, a move the former Conservative justice secretary Alex Chalk reportedly pressed Rishi Sunak to make before the election.
The previous government expanded measures by which some inmates could be released from jail up to 70 days early, in a bid to free up cells, but concerns were raised that dangerous criminals could end up being eligible despite officials insisting offenders would continue to be supervised under strict conditions.
The Ministry of Justice is already building six new prisons to create an extra 20,000 places as demand grows for cell spaces, partially because of the Government’s campaign to hire 20,000 more police officers.
About 6,000 spaces have been created already and about 10,000 will be built by the end of 2025.
