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Evening Standard
Evening Standard
World
Nicholas Cecil

Jury out on Chancellor Rachel Reeves, new poll shows after '£22 billion black hole' row

The jury is out on new Chancellor Rachel Reeves, according to a new poll after she axed spending to fill what she claimed was a £22 billion black hole in the public finances.

The Ipsos survey for The Standard showed four in ten Britons say they “don’t know” whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way she is doing her job as Chancellor.

The 41 per cent figure is higher than for Chancellors since 2016 including George Osborne, Philip Hammond, Sajid Javid, Rishi Sunak, Kwasi Kwarteng and Jeremy Hunt.

Thirty-four per cent say they are satisfied with Ms Reeves’ tenure so far at the Treasury and 25 per cent dissatisfied.

This is better than Mr Kwarteng’s dismal rating of 12 per cent satisfied and 65 per cent dissatisfied in October 2022, and also for Mr Hunt who was never in positive scores, but not as good as Mr Sunak who had far higher satisfaction figures at the start of his time in the Treasury.

The findings come after Ms Reeves flew to New York and Toronto in Canada to try to drum up business for the UK as the new Government seeks to boost economic growth to fund better public services.

Ms Reeves claims she inherited a £22 billion black hole in the public finances, an allegation strongly refuted by her predecessor Mr Hunt.

Before the July 4 general election, the Institute for Fiscal Studies warned of a “conspiracy of silence” between the main political parties over the dire state of the public finances and that tax rises, public spending cuts or more borrowing would be needed whoever won.

It said recently that some of the gap in the public finances had not been known before the election but other elements of it had.

The new Chancellor has announced moves to scale back road, rail and hospital spending, to limit winter fuel payments to pensioners on benefits, and signalled tax rises and more difficult decisions on welfare and public expenditure in the autumn Budget.

The poll, whose fieldwork was done before the riots, also showed Sir Keir Starmer’s net satisfaction rating jumping from -19 as Opposition Leader to +7 as Prime Minister.

Thirty-seven per cent say they are satisfied with his performance, and 30 per cent dissatisfied, compared to before the July 4 election when the respective figures were 33 per cent and 52 per cent in June.

Mr Sunak’s net satisfaction ratings has also jumped from -55 before the election to -35 now, as has Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey from minus five to +10.

Forty-eight per cent say they are dissatisfied with the new Government, and 27 per cent satisfied, a net score of -21, compared to -71 in June for Mr Sunak’s administration.

However, a majority (52 per cent) think the Labour government’s policies will in the long term improve public services, the highest score since the Blair government in June 2001, with 39 per cent disagreeing.

Forty-eight per cent expect the Government’s policies will in the long term boost the economy, with 43 per cent disagreeing, the most optimistic since November 2015, the year before the Brexit referendum.

Three quarters (77 per cent) of Britons say public services have got worse over the last five years, compared to 63 per cent in March 2017, 42 per cent in September 2015 and 40 per cent in November 2012.

Keiran Pedley, Ipsos Director of Politics, said: “Whilst the public are more optimistic about various aspects of life in Britain than they were before the General Election, many are undecided in their opinions of Keir Starmer as Prime Minister and Rachel Reeves as Chancellor.

“Perhaps not surprising given that the new government is barely a month old.

“Ultimately the Labour government is likely to be judged by how it deals with the crises that come its way and whether it can deliver on the long-term priorities of the voters that put it in office, namely improving the cost of living and public services.”

There is still gloom over when the NHS will improve, with 34 per cent expecting this to happen over the next few years, and 42 per cent not, though this was more optimistic than under the Tories last November when the figures were 16 per cent and 64 per cent respectively.

Half of Britons (52 per cent) think the cost-of-living crisis will get worse over coming years, double the 24 per cent who expect it to ease.

However, the public are more optimistic that things will improve rather than get worse on skills in Britain’s workforce (33 per cent better/28 per cent worse), public transport (32 per cent/24 per cent) and opportunities for young people (37 per cent/33 per cent).

The public are split on whether the quality of education will improve (30 per cent/29 per cent) though they are more optimistic than under the Conservatives in November (15 per cent/44 per cent respectively).

But just 17 per cent expect the way their area is policed to improve in the next few years (+7 from November), with 32 per cent thinking it will get worse (-10 from nine months ago).

Twenty-seven per cent believe the quality of the environment will improve, 36 per cent taking the opposite view, giving a new score of -9, compared to -30 in November.

* Ipsos interviewed 1,003 adults by phone across Britain between July 24 and 30. Data are weighted.

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