Mohamed Salah verdict on 'best' Liverpool formation…

Mohamed Salah verdict on 'best' Liverpool formation does not tell the full story

Liverpool’s inconsistent 2022/23 campaign took a step in the right direction with a 2-0 victory over Napoli in the Champions League on Tuesday night. It left Liverpool with 15 points from six games in Europe when they have 16 from 12 in the Premier League.

The Reds have now alternated between wins and losses for their last five matches in all competitions, and it’s little wonder they have struggled for momentum. Nineteen players have suffered injuries and missed a combined 132 games, leaving Jurgen Klopp deprived of an average of 6.9 men per match.

The Liverpool manager deviated from his side’s previously set in stone 4-3-3 formation for the eight games prior to the clash with Napoli, but then switched back for the match with the Serie A leaders. “It is always on the table for us but doesn’t mean we will now play it all the time,” Klopp said after the match when questioned about why he had returned to the Reds’ established tactics.

Mohamed Salah was one player who was happy that Liverpool went back to their 4-3-3 framework. “I played that position (on the right) (for) five or six years, I have to say that’s the best for me,” he said in his post-match interview. “But, the manager decides the tactics, as the player you have to follow the leader."

It’s intriguing to consider what tactics Klopp will use at Tottenham on Sunday. He can be certain that Spurs will play with a back three, and the Reds have two wins and two draws from four games against teams which used that defensive shape this season (albeit they were all at Anfield). If nothing else, the recent changes Liverpool have made mean there will be a seed of doubt in the mind of Antonio Conte and the other opposing managers waiting down the line this season.

But which formation has worked better for the Reds? We have an almost even split of 10 matches with 4-3-3 and eight with other tactical shapes, so it makes for a reasonably fair comparison.

Salah appears to have cast his vote for the regular tactics, yet he has scored or assisted a goal every 125 minutes in the 4-3-3 formation and every 93 minutes in others (if we exclude his penalty from the home victory over Rangers). However, the latter figures received a sizeable boost from a hat-trick in a cameo at Ibrox and he has not been as productive in games started in some version of 4-4-2.

The amended tactics have been used in slightly harder games though. In those matches, Liverpool’s opponents had an average SPI (FiveThirtyEight’s team strength measure) of 73.6, when it has been 72.0 for the fixtures in which 4-3-3 was utilised.

And despite the mild margin of difficulty, Liverpool have got better results with their 4-4-2 variations, averaging 1.88 points-per-game compared with 1.60 otherwise. Their average goal difference has been 0.35 per match better too.

As important as outcomes are, trusting the process is arguably more vital. If we consider the underlying numbers then the 4-3-3 comes out as the stronger of the two options, with an expected goal difference of 0.56 per 90 as opposed to 0.36.

Perhaps most pertinently, when using their trusted tactics Liverpool have scored more goals but also conceded more, and this despite having a possession average that is almost six per cent higher. You might expect them to have greater control and better xG statistics with more of the ball yet that hasn’t proven to be the case.

The performance of the 11 players on the pitch at any one time ultimately decides what occurs, and formations can be recorded differently depending on whose opinion you take. What the numbers in the last few paragraphs tell us more than anything is that the Reds haven’t been that great whatever tactics they have deployed. Klopp is correct to leave everything on the table at this point.

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