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Liverpool Echo
Liverpool Echo
Sport
Dave Powell

Jude Bellingham transfer: why Liverpool's biggest rivals may have just been forced to drop out of the race

Liverpool look to be leading the race to land Jude Bellingham.

The performances of the 19 year old at the heart of England's midfield at the World Cup in Qatar have only served to back up the claims that he is a generational talent already operating at a world class level.

While he has a contract with German side Borussia Dortmund that runs until 2025, Bellingham is set to depart the Bundesliga side in the summer, his destination as yet unknown.

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Last summer the same cluster of clubs were interested in the teenager, with Liverpool, Real Madrid and Manchester City among the suitors. The decision of the former Birmingham City man was to remain in Germany for another year, a decision that has already proved shrewd, with his performances in Qatar seeing a further premium attached to an already weighty price tag, one that is expected to sit at around the £130m mark.

Real Madrid were seen as the biggest challengers to Liverpool in any race for Bellingham, the Spanish giants' history of snaring the greatest players to come and play in the capital something that has worked time and again.

But reports in Spain suggest that a move for Bellingham at the prices being touted would be unlikely, with MARCA claiming that it is a deal that Los Blancos simply cannot afford to pull off this summer.

The narrative around Real Madrid has long been that if the club wills a deal to get done then they will make it happen. But the reality is that the pandemic, while Real managed to fare far better than their La Liga rivals Barcelona, still impacted them negatively and a certain amount of belt tightening needed to be done, which it was.

The actions that the club took during the pandemic to reduce costs lessened the impact on the balance sheet, but one thing that had already begun and could not be paused was the transformation of their famous Santiago Bernabeu home.

Plans for a €525m (£450m) renovation were due to begin in 2017 but started in 2019, the pandemic hitting a year after. The closure of stadiums during COVID did allow for renovation work to be moved through more swiftly but with restrictions in place and economic uncertainty it meant that elements of the operation were hamstrung. In 2021 another loan of €225m (£194m) was passed to aid the completion of works to the stadium that were unplanned.

Initially the plan had been to inaugurate the revamped stadium next week, but it is the geo-political issues surrounding Russia's invasion of Ukraine back in February that has materially impacted Real's plans to the greatest extent.

The construction industry has felt the effects of the war in Ukraine, with steel prices rocketing and inflation rising meaning that alternative, far more costly solutions have had to be sought mid-build. This has also impacted Real Madrid who are having to combat extra financial pressures to complete the work on the Santiago Bernabeu, with some reports in Spain suggesting, via Mundo Deportivo, claiming that they may have have to seek an additional loan of up to €200m, a move that would take the total build cost to €1bn.

Real struck a deal back in May of this year with US investment fund Sixth Street Partners and entertainments business Legends worth €360m (£310m) over a 20-year period to see them develop concerts and other events at the Bernabeu and help the club diversify its revenue streams. It was a move that helped the club gain some fresh capital to ease some of the financial pressures that had been placed upon them.

That move worked, but with the club needing to managed the next 12 to 18 months more carefully, a major outlay on someone carrying Bellingham's price tag may be beyond them, at least for now. The redeveloped Bernabeu, which will include a retractable roof, is set to open mid-2023 and the club aim for it to deliver an extra €150m (£129m) per year in revenues due to its ability to host a multitude of events.

If Real Madrid are less likely to go all in on Bellingham it leaves a clearer path for Liverpool. Like Liverpool, Real aren't on UEFA's watchlist when it comes to Financial Fair Play, but other clubs who have been linked with the England star, notably Manchester City and Chelsea, are being monitored, meaning that there would likely have to be some clearing of the decks in order to facilitate such a move.

Like Real Madrid, Liverpool have been undergoing their own renovation to their home stadium, albeit on a lesser scale. The Anfield Road End work will be completed in time for the start of next season and will add an extra 7,000 new seats to the stadium, raising the capacity beyond 60,000. That development is estimated to have cost around £80m, the Reds having to carry the burden of higher costs that were first thought, but there are no onerous loan obligations that need to be considered when the Reds look at their transfer business this summer.

But while Real Madrid have been willing spenders in the market for many years, often meeting inflated price tags to acquire the players they want, Liverpool have been less inclined to pay over the odds. However, with Bellingham's displays having added considerable amounts on to his price tag, if the Reds want to land him they will need a change of approach, and to pay a premium.

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