Independence leader and Nobel laureate José Ramos-Horta has declared victory in Timor-Leste's presidential election, saying on Thursday that he had secured "overwhelming" support and would now work to foster dialogue and unity.
Timorese voters went to the polls in the half-island nation of 1.3 million people on Tuesday, in a run-off election between Mr Ramos-Horta and former guerilla fighter and current President, Francisco "Lu Olo" Guterres.
With 100 per cent of the votes counted, preliminary results showed Mr Ramos-Horta had 62 per cent of the votes, while Mr Guterres had 37 per cent, according to data from the election administration agency.
"I have received this mandate from our people, from the nation, in an overwhelming demonstration of our people's commitment to democracy," Mr Ramos-Horta told reporters in Dili.
'Not his first rodeo'
Mr Ramos-Horta, 72, is one of Timor-Leste's best-known political figures and previously had served as foreign minister, prime minister and then the country's second president, from 2007 to 2012.
He was a co-recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize in 1996, for his efforts to bring a peaceful resolution to a guerilla war in Timor-Leste against Indonesia's occupation of the former Portuguese colony.
"This is not his first rodeo for a presidential campaign," said foreign policy expert Parker Novak.
In the first round of the election in April, Mr Ramos-Horta narrowly missed securing an outright majority.
After years of political tensions between major parties, this election has been widely viewed as crucial to stability.
"The political direction of the country is really at stake here," Mr Novak said.
"And on the policy side of things, there are some ramifications at play for the oil and gas sector, which accounts for over 90 per cent of East Timor's GDP and also accounts for nearly the entirety of state revenue."
Potential political shake-up
Mr Ramos-Horta has suggested he may use presidential powers to dissolve parliament and bring forward a general election scheduled for next year.
Timor-Leste's first president, Xanana Gusmão, was backing Mr Ramos-Horta in this election and has described the current government as "constitutionally illegitimate".
Mr Novak said Mr Gusmão's support for Mr Ramos-Horta was"a complete flip" after he backed Mr Guterres in 2017.
Mr Guterres, the incumbent, refused to swear in several ministers from Mr Gusmão's political party on the grounds that they were facing legal investigations, including for alleged corruption.
Mr Novak said Mr Ramos-Horta secured Mr Gusmão's support by promising to call a snap parliamentary election, "which legally and politically can get a bit complicated".
"It's first important to know that the president serves as the head of state and under the Timorese constitution is prescribed relatively limited powers," he added.
But Michael Leach, a professor in politics and international relations at Swinburne University of Technology, said Mr Ramos-Horta may prefer to see if the current parliament can be remodelled in the first instance, rather than dissolving it.
"Normally dissolution of parliament is something that occurs when a government can't be formed or a budget can't be passed," he said.
"At the moment there is a majority government, so that would be constitutionally difficult."
But it could also be politically tricky, he said — apart from Mr Gusmão’s National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction party (CNRT), the other political parties did not want the parliament dissolved.
Dr Leach said Mr Ramos-Horta's victory was unsurprising.
He said his leadership style was marked by "an ability to bring to bring the warring factions to the table and to negotiate and to use his long-standing diplomatic skills — and he's certainly going to need all of those in this situation," he said.
Dr Leach pointed out that under the semi-presidential system, the prime minister has more power.
"This is a cohabitation situation … where you've got the president from one party and the prime minister from another … and it can lead to more conflict in the system between the elected president and the prime minister.
Youth unemployment and foreign policy key issues
Voter Lobito De Jesus, 21, said Mr Ramos-Horta was an "excellent" politician who knew what the country needed and had good ties to other countries.
"He also has a good vision for similar people and also for the country," he said.
A key issue for young people is unemployment, he said, adding many Timorese people were going to foreign countries to work and send money home.
Dr Leach said Mr Ramos-Horta's election brought back into focus the Greater Sunrise oil and gas project, which triggers issues in the bilateral relationship with Australia.
"Any development vision that occurs in Greater Sunrise still needs Australian sign-off, because of the nature of the the agreement around royalty shares over that field," he said.
"This links into concerns that Australia and other countries have about potential Chinese involvement in these sorts of projects.
The next Timor-Leste president will be sworn in on May 20, the 20th anniversary of the country's restoration of independence.
Mr Ramos-Horta said he expected Timor-Leste to become the 11th member of the regional bloc the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) "within this year or next year at the latest."
The country currently holds observer status in ASEAN.
He said he would work with the government to respond to global economic pressures, including the impact on supply chains from the war in Ukraine and COVID-19 lockdowns in China.
"Of course, we start feeling it here in Timor-Leste. Oil prices went up, rice went up, that is a reality of what has happened in the world … It requires wise leadership."
Mr De Jesus said he was pleased the election itself was peaceful and said it showed political "maturity".
"I've never seen this peaceful campaign and election like that before," he said.
Reuters/ABC
