On March 1, the Tout Wars Battle of the Experts kicked off the fantasy baseball season with a 12-Team Rotisserie Mixed Draft, and I was honored to participate.
This is my second season playing in Tout Wars and my second season drafting in this 12-team league, which has a slightly different format than a traditional 5X5 roto league. To experiment with where the future of fantasy baseball could be going, we have replaced a few categories to more accurately reflect the modern game.
I have to say. I love this format.
Here are the few minor differences in this 12-team league:
- OBP replaces AVG. To more accurately reflect a player's actual value, all Tout Wars leagues use OBP instead of batting average. I don't know about you, but I want credit for my plate-discipline guys that take their walks and do what they can to get on base.
- IP instead of W. To remove some of the randomness of the wins category, we are using "innings pitched" as a category. The idea is to more accurately value pitchers who could see their leads evaporate due to poor defense or a struggling bullpen. Jacob deGrom, for example, is often a tough-luck loser even though he is an elite pitcher. With IP, you can concentrate on pure pitching ability and not sweat the W. Volume and elite ratios are what you are searching for. Again, this mimics more real-life value.
- S + HOLDS. The SAVES category is becoming more and more frustrating and less reflective of the game, as many teams have now moved to closer-by-committee. Closers, who usually have very little job security, get pushed too high up draft boards. Expanding the category to include HOLDS gives more flexibility and more ways to attack this category without surrendering too much draft capital. That being said, the elite closers still retain a lot of value in this format, as the top contributors in this category are still closers. For example: Liam Hendricks will likely accumulate upwards of 33 saves, while Aaron Bummer will likely accumulate 18 holds. Both will contribute favorably to your ratios, but one you have to draft early while the other you can pick up on the waiver wire. I finished second in this category last year, and it took 98 S+Holds.
I finished fourth overall in this league last year, mostly because I underestimated the importance of high-volume pitchers. I did well with my hitting -- finishing first in HR and RBI -- and I also did well in the S+Holds category. Going into last week’s draft, my goal was to find high-volume pitchers that would make strong ratio contributions.
Modified KDS decided the draft order based on last year's finish. I ended up with pick number three. Here are my league-mates in draft order:
Chris Towers, CBS
Brian Entrenkin, RotoBaller
Jennifer Piacenti, Sports Illustrated
Jeff Boggis, Fantasy Football Empire
Chris Clegg, Fantrax
Alex Fast (2021 Champ), Pitcher List
Andy Behrens, Yahoo
Steve Phillips, Sirius XM
Mike Alexander, Fantasy Alarm
Jake Ciely/John Laghezza, The Athletic
Matt Truss, Razzball
Sarah Sanchez, Bleed Cubbie Blue
Let's break it down!
Round 1: Jose Ramirez (3B), CLE
I went into the draft with the idea that I would take Ramirez with the third pick. When my turn came, I was slightly surprised Trea Turner was still available (Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto went 1-2). I hesitated for a few seconds but ultimately went with Ramirez, who has a power/speed combo that could be upwards of 35 home runs and 25 extra bags. Though Ramirez may only bat around .260, he is a much better player in OBP leagues with a career OBP of .354. Most importantly, Ramirez will give me an advantage at a thin third base position.
Round 2: Zach Wheeler (SP), PHI
Volume, volume, volume. Not only was Wheeler a finalist for the Cy Young in 2021, but he also pitched 213 innings. There's nothing flashy I love about Wheeler, but he isn't an injury risk and has been a workhorse throughout his career. If I can get 180-plus innings and a sub-three ERA, then sign me up.
Round 3: Jacob deGrom (SP), NYM
Well, this was NOT in my game plan, but how could I pass it up? After just locking down a dependable ace, it seemed like the perfect time to roster the BEST PITCHER IN BASEBALL in the THIRD round! O.K., yes. I get it. DeGrom is a major injury risk. But, even pitching only 92 innings last season, he finished as the SP13, and the elite ratios he provided in those 92 innings were unmatched. DeGrom surrendered only .59 HR per nine while striking out 14 per nine. He pitched to a 1.08 ERA last year, and his fastball continues to pick up speed every season. He's a unicorn, and reports are he will be healthy to start the season. Only time will tell, but I am willing to roll the dice.
Round 4: Salvador Perez (C), KC
Perez tied Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for the league lead in HR for 2021 with 48, and he led the league with 121 RBI. Will he regress? Most likely. But the advantage he gives you at a scarce position is too much to pass up. I'll take a bit of an OBP hit, but he is a statcast dream. His hard-hit rate is in the 99th percentile, his max average exit velocity is in the 94th percentile and his barrel rate is in the 93rd percentile. That won't disappear overnight. I finished first in home runs and RBI in this league last year with Ramirez and Perez both on my squad. I'm nothing if not loyal.
Round 5: Jose Altuve (2B), HOU
Maybe a bit of a homer pick, but Altuve is a really good baseball player who bats leadoff on the team that scored the most runs in 2021.
Round 6: Corey Seager (SS), TEX
Shortstop is a deep position this year, but I didn't want to wait with Seager available here. Seager is likely batting third for the Rangers, and just two seasons ago, his hard-hit rate was top 2% of the league. Plus, he should contribute favorably to my OBP.
Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Round 7: J.D. Martinez (OF), BOS
I'm feeling pretty good about my pitching staff, so I continued to load up on hitters. I love Martinez here. Sure, his power may be fading just a tad, but minus the 2020 season -- which was a total outlier -- Martinez has never slugged under .514, and he has the potential for 30-plus home runs while contributing favorably to OBP. In 2021, Martinez was still top 10% of the league in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, expected slugging (xSLG) and expected batting average (xBA) -- plus, he plays for the team that had the fifth-most RBI and runs scored in 2021.
Round 8: Charlie Morton (SP), ATL
Morton fractured his tibia in the postseason and maybe that's why he's going this late in drafts. Or perhaps it's because he's 38. Either way, I don't care. I want a guy that can give me 180 innings, over 200 K, and a sub 3.50 ERA. That's Charlie Morton.
Round 9: Carlos Correa (SS), FA
This is a bit of a risk since we don't know where Correa will sign, but in the ninth round, it probably isn't. That's what I am counting on here. Of course, I want to see him back in that Houston lineup, but even if he goes to the Bronx, I'll get great counting stats -- assuming he doesn't pull a Francisco Lindor…
Round 10: Justin Verlander (SP), HOU
Verlander was ready to go back in October. So yes, he's coming back from Tommy John surgery, but he's been throwing for quite a while. He hasn't seen the field officially since July 2020, but Verlander is just two seasons removed from a Cy Young. Houston just inked him to a $25 million deal, so they clearly have confidence the veteran will return in good form. Sure he's 39, but worst-case scenario I get only a few games. Best case, he gets another Cy Young.
Round 11: Kenley Jansen (RP), FA
O.K., at this point I was starting to get a little nervous as a closer run had started. Jansen is a free agent, but I am gambling that he will get the closer's role wherever he signs. Jansen has recorded 288 saves since 2014, by far the most in the league. Worst-case scenario, he gets me some holds. Best case, he closes for the 100-win Dodgers.
Round 12: Myles Straw (OF), CLE
Did I reach a little for steals? Maybe. Straw won't give me any power, but he should protect my OBP and hopefully give me a lot of speed.
Round 13: Jorge Soler (OF), FA
Pure power at pick #147. Soler won the World Series MVP. It may cost me OBP, but I'm betting I can get 30-plus HR, and depending on where he lands, a nice RBI total should come along with that.
Round 14: Craig Kimbrel (RP), FA
Exact same situation as Kenley Jansen. I'm taking the discount because he isn't signed, but I'm nearly certain he will get a chance to close wherever he goes. At minimum, he will lock up a bunch of holds and help rack up some Ks.
Jeff Curry/USA TODAY Sports
Round 15: Adam Wainwright (SP) STL
Waino was a target of mine going into the draft. The ace pitched over 200 innings last season with a sparkling 3.05 ERA, and he surrendered less than one home run per nine innings pitched. In 2020, he pitched to a 3.15 ERA across 65 innings in the shortened season. He pitches in a weaker division, and I like the value.
Round 16: Charlie Blackmon (OF), COL
Charlie Blackmon is getting old, and he doesn't steal bases anymore, but he still bats third at Coors. With the DH likely coming to the NL, the 35-year-old won't have to be on his feet every day. I expect a good OBP, 15-20 home runs and 75 R and RBI from pick No. 190.
Round 17: Adley Rutschman (C), BAL
Rutschman is the best catching prospect we have seen in over a decade. He hit .283/.398/.513 with 22 homers across all levels of A ball last year, and there's no doubt he's ready for the bigs. If, for any reason, the Orioles don't bring him up to start the season, I am happy to stream at C until they do. It seems I have chosen to go all-in on Catcher for this Tout team. Hope it works…
Round 18: Yuli Gurriel (1B), HOU
Gurriel won the AL batting title for 2021 at age 37. Sure, he's getting older, but let me repeat: Gurriel won the AL batting title at age 37. His strikeout rate has been in the top 3% of the league since 2017, and he plays in a powerful Houston lineup. What's there to lose at pick 214? Certainly not OBP.
Round 19: Connor Joe (1B/OF), COL
With the DH coming to the NL, not only does Charlie Blackmon benefit, but I am expecting we will see more of Connor Joe. He hit .285 with eight home runs, 23 runs and 35 RBI in just 63 games played in 2021. That's on pace for a 20-plus homer season. Joe crushes fastballs and he hits lefties exceptionally well: Joe slashed .306/.390/.551 vs. southpaws in 2021.
Round 20: A.J. Pollock (OF), LAD
This is another pick I love due to the universal DH. Pollock hit .297 with 21 home runs and nine stolen bases without everyday playing time in 2021. More opportunities should be there in 2022. As long as he can stay healthy, this could return significant value.
AP Photo/Charlie Riedel
Round 21: Lance McCullers Jr. (SP), HOU
McCullers may not be ready to start the season, but he should be close. Besides, Tout Leagues allow unlimited IL spots, so there isn't much to lose. Sure, McCullers has been known to have durability problems, but at pick 243, I'm willing to gamble he will contribute enough to return his draft-day value. McCullers threw 185 K across 162 innings pitched. He has never surrendered more than .84 home runs per nine in his six major league seasons. Now, if he can just keep those walks under control and not kill my WHIP…
Round 22: Frank Schwindel (1B), CHC
The 29-year-old rookie made a huge impression after the Cubs lost Anthony Rizzo, swatting 13 homers and hitting .342/.389/.613 across 56 games. I'm willing to throw a dart.
Round 23: Aaron Civale (SP), CLE
Somehow, I didn't hear the annoying draft horn and I timed out. SHAME. I am still grumpy about it.
Round 24: Joc Pederson (OF), FA
Pederson's max exit velocity was in the 90th percentile, and his hard-hit rate was in the 84th percentile in 2021. There's power upside there (I hope).
Round 25: Dylan Floro (RP), MIA
Floro looks like he could be the head of the closer committee in Miami. He picked up 15 saves and 11 holds last year with a 2.81 ERA.
Round 26: Darin Ruf (OF/1B), SFG
Another player that should benefit from the DH. Ruf played a career-high 117 games and slashed .271/.385/.519 with 16 bombs in 2021 while platooning at OF/1B. The 35-year-old righty was particularly dominant vs. lefties with a 1.007 OPS, and he had an extraordinary 54.5% hard-hit rate in 2021. That was good enough for the eighth-best in the major leagues, separated by less than 1% from Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Round 27: Raimel Tapia (OF), COL
This is a speed play. I'm betting Tapia can return to the top of the lineup and get a chance to snag me 20 extra bags. Nothing really to lose with this pick.
Round 28: Stephen Strasburg (SP), WSH
There are unlimited IL spots in Tout, and I am not afraid to use them! Who knows if Strasburg will ever return to elite status, but the Nationals are paying him $35 million a year, so I'm willing to take a flier.
And that's it!
A lot can change between now and Opening Day, but I'm pretty happy with the team I drafted. I met my HR, R, RBI, SB, IP and K targets, and I will likely have to work on ERA, WHIP, OBP, and S+HOLDS. Winning teams aren't drafted, they are managed. I'll definitely be using my $1,000 FAAB once we get more info from spring training.
For the complete draft board, click here.
Follow along with the Tout Wars Battle of the Experts all season long. In addition to posting draft results for all leagues, we post our weekly FAAB bids and current standings throughout the season.
