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Christian D'Andrea

Jordan Love’s ascent, the Eagles’ sorrow, Lions’ fatal flaw and the best, worst of Week 18

Jordan Love NFL Breece Hall Derrick Henry Kendre Miller USA TODAY Sports Vikings Puka Nacua Jets Bill Groman

Week 18 was filled with games that didn’t matter. But the ones that did helped shine a light on this winter’s playoff field.

With all due respect to Carson Wentz’s comeback efforts over Sam Darnold’s San Francisco 49ers — another winning veteran quarterback the New York Jets could have signed, by the way — the real action was in the games between teams who still had something to play for. We saw the Green Bay Packers continue to ride their sine wave of a season, cresting to a new high behind Jordan Love. We saw the Jacksonville Jaguars and Philadelphia Eagles continue their death spirals, costing the Jaguars their playoff hopes and pushing Philly into a Wild Card road trip.

So what were the best — and, notably, worst — things about the final week of the 2023 NFL regular season? Let’s take a closer look.

Best: Puka Nacua, officially the most prolific rookie wide receiver in NFL history

Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

The NFL’s rookie single season receiving yards record has stood since 1960. In the end, it wasn’t a vaunted first-round pick who broke it more than six decades later. It was a fifth-round selection who had more receiving yards in 2023 than he did his final two years of college combined:

Puka Nacua finished his NFL debut with 105 catches and 1,486 yards, breaking Jaylen Waddle’s rookie record for receptions and Bill Groman’s long-standing record for yardage. And while Groman remains the per-game king after getting that done in just 13 games of a 14-week season for the Houston Oilers, it’s the former Washington and BYU wideout who now reigns supreme over the rest of the league’s first-year wide receivers.

Worst: The Minnesota Vikings' merciful end

David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

2023 was, in many ways, an extremely Vikings year for the Minnesota Vikings. A team known for reaching the threshold of success only to have that door slammed in its face over six decades of existence once again instilled hope, only to have it washed away by terrible bounces, injury luck and the sudden competence of the NFC North around them.

Week 18’s loss to the Detroit Lions followed the pattern that defined their year as a whole. Minnesota started off listless and fell behind by frustratingly failing to play up to its talent.

Then came the surge. The defense tightened. Nick Mullens’ deep throws found their targets and Minnesota turned an early double-digit deficit into a seven-point game in the fourth quarter.

Then came the Vikings’ traditional finish: ultimate failure. Mullens’ red zone interception effectively sealed things before a second left no doubt. The end result was a season in which Minnesota was simultaneously better and worse than expected. Now they head into an offseason staring down a free agency decision on Kirk Cousins and in need of the defensive upgrades necessary to field a defense with an identity beyond “throws blitzers at you until you die.”

Given their history, the Vikings will make some modest improvements, emerge as a solid team once again and ultimately fall short of their goal. That’s fine. They’re the Minnesota Vikings. This is their mission statement, ad infinitum.

Best: The Jets' offense, which would not exist without Breece Hall

David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

The Jets would like you to know they have a plan for 2024. And it involves Breece Hall.

So much Breece Hall.

Nearly 60 percent of New York’s first half plays against the New England Patriots revolved around the second-year tailback. Hall, a former second round pick who had his 2022 cut short by an ACL tear, was the salve necessary to heal the wounds of a quarterback room currently headed by Trevor Siemian.

Hall was responsible for 74.8 percent of the Jets’ total yardage. He was responsible for 100 percent of the touchdowns scored on a snowy afternoon in Foxborough. Thirty nine of New York’s 62 plays were intended to give the star tailback the ball in some way, shape or form and this was absolutely the right decision.

This is great, because New York needs all the offensive insurance it can get. The Jets quarterback is a 40-year-old former MVP who played four snaps in 2023 and had the worst season of his career in 2022. He’s going to need playmakers to shoulder the load in stretches next season and, quite possibly, deflect blame if his late-stage Green Bay Packers struggles persist after a lost year.

But he probably won’t be able to blame Hall if he plays like he did in Week 18.

Worst: The Carolina Panthers' carnival of sadness

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

The Carolina Panthers just limped through a 2-15 season. There is no silver lining to this. They are a bad team that cannot get instantly better after securing 2024’s top overall draft pick, because they owe that pick to the Chicago Bears as aftershocks from last year’s Bryce Young trade continue to ripple through the NFL landscape. Young, despite his untapped potential, finished his season with 206 combined passing yards in his final two games — a pair of shutout losses.

This is a disaster. Young was left without help, saddled with a lineup of veteran B players at wideout and tight end and an offensive line that did no favors for one of the league’s smaller passers. The rookie was sacked 62 times this fall, tied for fifth-most all time in a single season.

Even when things began to take off, they rapidly and explosively disassembled as they approached the upper bounds of the atmosphere.

The good news is the 33rd pick of the draft awaits, along with a modest chunk of salary cap space (roughly $29 million, per Over the Cap). They’ll use that cash in hopes of luring free agents to play for the league’s least likable owner — a tremendous achievement in a league filled with billionaires but not quite as important now that Dan Snyder no longer has his own suite.

Carolina has a decent defense and a quarterback who *should* be able to rise above his station as the league’s 29th-best passer. It’s going to take an extended stretch of competency to make them anything more than that. That’s a task where the 2023 Panthers proved woefully incapable.

Worst: The Jacksonville Jaguars' season-killing run defense

The Tennessean

Derrick Henry did not have a good 2023. His 2024, however, started with a bang.

Henry, a pending free agent playing in what may be his final game as a Titan, put together a throwback performance in Week 18. After being reduced to mere mortal for most of the regular season, he emerged as Tractorcito one more time to thoroughly embarrass the Jags. He came into the final game of the season with three total rushing yards over expected (RYOE) on the season — a measurement of the yards he’d gained vs. the yards an average NFL running back would gain in the same situations. On Sunday alone he churned out 80 RYOE en route to 153 total yards and a touchdown.

This turned out to be fatal to Jacksonville’s playoff hopes. All the Jaguars needed was to beat the 5-11 Titans — a team they’d beaten by 20 points at home earlier in the year — to win the AFC South title. Their rush defense wasn’t great, but it was solid enough to handle a suddenly average Henry and company.

This did not happen. Jacksonville’s run defense had allowed just 4.0 yards per carry in 2023 — ninth-best in the NFL and a smidge higher than Henry’s career-low 3.9. The Jags’ -0.091 expected points added (EPA) per opponent’s run play ranked just 17th. On Sunday they gave up 6.7 yards per carry and 0.26 EPA per rush.

Fifty four percent of Tennessee’s yardage came on the ground, creating enough cover for Ryan Tannehill to outplay Trevor Lawrence (!). As a result, the Titans extracted revenge on the team that knocked them out of last season’s playoff field.

Best: Kendre Miller, who looks like the Saints' future

Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Speaking of run defenses, the Atlanta Falcons came into Week 18 with the league’s top unit against opposing tailbacks.

via rbsdm.com and the author.

This could have spelled disaster for a New Orleans Saints team with its sights set on a potential NFC South title and no Alvin Kamara in the lineup. And it was for veteran back Jamaal Williams. The former touchdown machine gained only 26 yards on 14 carries and his lone touchdown came on a fake kneeldown that got Arthur Smith awfully upset.

This was not, however, a problem for rookie Kendre Miller. You may remember Miller from being a thoroughbred on TCU’s national title participant team from 2022 or from his lack of impact as a fantasy sleeper in his rookie campaign. Week 18 presented one last chance to shine and, hoooo brother, he got there:

Miller ran for a career-high 73 yards on 13 carries, turning five of those touches into either first downs or touchdowns. With Kamara on the brink of 29 years old and a potential salary cap casualty either this year ($11.8 million in savings) or next ($25 million in savings), New Orleans needs a contingency plan at tailback. Miller’s generally underwhelming rookie year isn’t exactly a convincing resume, but his Week 18 performance against a great rushing defense inspires confidence.

Worst: The Detroit Lions' passing defense, which sure looks like their Achilles heel

David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

Detroit got a win over the Minnesota Vikings Sunday. That was nice. It wasn’t especially meaningful — the Lions were already locked into a playoff spot and the Vikings were effectively out — but it gave the team’s starters another chance to sharpen themselves against tough competition before the postseason.

It also provided an opportunity for star rookie tight end Sam LaPorta to get injured and for opponents to see the glaring weak spot in Detroit’s game; a cheesecloth secondary that got lit up by Nick Mullens.

Mullens wasn’t great, but he finished his day with 396 passing yards and two touchdowns (along with two interceptions) on 44 attempts. Frankly, if Jordan Addison doesn’t misjudge this first half deep ball, the damage would have been even worse.

The Lions’ secondary is a problem, especially deep downfield. Mullens completed five of his nine passes that traveled at least 20 yards downfield, throwing for 167 yards, two touchdowns, one interception and a 100.5 passer rating. He did all this, famously, despite being very much Nick Mullens.

The Lions’ cornerbacks could not survive being left on an island against good wideouts. Their safety help bit on play fakes and decoy crossers, leaving entirely too much space deep downfield.

Minnesota was able to exploit this, in part, because it has two great wideouts in Addison and Justin Jefferson. But the rest of the playoff field will feature guys like Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Mike Evans, AJ Brown (maybe), DeVonta Smith (maybe), CeeDee Lamb, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and more.

This is a problem! Detroit’s run defense has consistently been better than its pass defense, and while this wasn’t fatal in Week 18 it absolutely could be going foward.

Best: The Seahawks' coulda-been season-saving two-point conversion

© Michael Chow/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Seahawks didn’t make it to the playoffs. The fact they nearly got upset by the Cardinals in Week 18 suggests they probably didn’t belong there in the first place (hello, Philadelphia Eagles).

But with their season on the line, they stood up and made the clutch plays they needed to survive and lock in a winning 2023. Geno Smith’s touchdown pass to Tyler Lockett was a perfectly threaded thing of beauty:

But what I want to talk about is the risk that followed. Seattle read the numbers on the clock and scoreboard and went for two rather than kicking an extra point. Whether they scored or not, this was the proper, aggressive decision, even from a team with no timeouts left. Smith was cooking and going for two put the balance of the game in the hands of the guys head coach Pete Carroll trusted the most.

And hoooo buddy, did he have a play drawn up for the occasion.

Look at how much protection Smith has in his deep drop. Then look at the end zone. There are two players the Cardinals have to worry about more than anyone else; Lockett and DK Metcalf. With his season on the line, Carroll found a way to scheme them *both* wide open:

via Fox

This was absolutely gorgeous and it makes me a little bit sad the Seahawks aren’t in the playoffs. Then I remember they gave up 153 yards on their final three drives and only survived because Matt Prater missed a pair of 50-plus yard field goals. So, yeah, Seattle probably didn’t deserve an extended season.

Worst: Jalen Hurts' throwing hand

USA Today Sports

Jalen Hurts’ middle finger, midway through Week 18, was a proper analog for the Philadelphia Eagles’ 2023 season. Things were going well for a while, then all the sudden a few unwanted twists and turns showed up and threaten to unravel all the team’s progress.

Eeeeesh. Hurts returned to the field after that injury, but didn’t stay for long. The New York Giants’ early lead, combined with the Dallas Cowboys’ dominant performance in Washington, made Philly’s final game of 2023 an effective exhibition game. But it was a costly one, as Hurts is gonna have a dickens of a time making a fist over the next week and top wideout A.J. Brown left the game in the first half thanks to a knee injury.

Philadelphia is 1-5 in its last five games after a 10-1 start. This team is casting off 2020 Pittsburgh Steelers vibes, and that team collapsed so hard it lost to Baker Mayfield’s Cleveland Browns in the postseason. Waiting for the Eagles in the Wild Card round is … Baker Mayfield’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Well, huh.

Best: Jordan Love, playoff quarterback

USA Today Sports

In 2023, Aaron Rodgers entered Week 18 needing a win at home over a surging division rival with nothing but pride to play for in order to make the playoffs. Instead, he lost to the Detroit Lions.

In 2024, Jordan Love entered Week 18 needing a win at home over a surging division rival with nothing but pride to play for in order to make the playoffs. And then he claimed his draft right as successor to Rodgers’ ownership of the Chicago Bears.

Love continues to thrive in Matt LaFleur’s offense, using the wide open space his offense creates to lob perfectly placed balls to wideouts sliding through closing windows. He’s the master of back-foot lobs that seem like terrible ideas, then glide through two defenders to a waiting 23-year-old target for a big gain.

On Sunday, he did the bulk of his damage in the intermediate range (10-19 yards downfield), crushing Chicago’s secondary with eight completions on these throws in 10 attempts.

This wasn’t against some chump team, either. Since their Week 10 bye, the Bears had fielded the league’s most efficient defense. Montez Sweat’s arrival had paved the way to create more pressure without blitzing, leading to stiflingly crowded backfield with little room to throw. But Love was only sacked once and hit once en route to 316 yards on 32 attempts.

That’s the kind of performance that instills confidence — and should worry next week’s opponent, the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas was 0-2 against the Packers during Rodgers’ glory days. Now the onus is on them — and former Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy — to prove they can finally get past the Pack and throw things back to the early 1990s.

Worst: Josh Allen, who is giving us a reason to doubt the Bills in the postseason

Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Look, this game is still ongoing as I write this. There’s plenty of time for the Buffalo Bills to course correct. But there’s been enough about Allen’s first half in Miami alone to worry anyone who’s invested in Buffalo breaking its AFC title drought.

Like this interception where he forces a rushed throw to a spot his receiver has vacated:

Or this completely beautiful Stefon Diggs route that should have been an 89-yard touchdown against a Pro Bowl caliber cornerback … but was an incompletion instead.

(There was a second first half interception in there as well. But it happened on fourth-and-two and the ensuing touchback actually net the Bills 15 yards of field position, so it’s difficult to complain about that one.)

Allen’s first touchdown pass caromed off a defenders helmet before Trent Sherfield recovered in time to make a toe-tapping grab at the back of the end zone. Whether or not this was luck or skill can be debated, but Mike McDaniel’s face is pretty much all the argument you need that, yes, it was the former:

Of course, we’re still dealing with Josh Allen here. There is no good Josh Allen without the bad Josh Allen, as his capacity for great plays is only possible thanks to his ability to process risk on the fly, understand the odds and say “[expletive] it, I’m gonna do it anyway.”

So maybe this concern is all for naught — we’re talking about the first half of a game between two teams guaranteed a playoff spot anyway. Still, those are some gross throws in some big moments in his regular season finale.

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