JOHN Swinney is on course to lead the SNP to a pro-independence majority in Holyrood following the announcement of next year's Budget, according to a new poll.
Support for independence has also risen to 54%, when undecided voters are excluded, the highest level for more than four years, according to recent polling by The Times.
The first survey carried out since the Scottish Government laid out its tax and spending plans for next year were announced on Wednesday also show a significant blow to Scottish Labour, as the party’s support dropped to its lowest level in three years.
After the Scottish Budget announcement support for the SNP increased by four points to 37% for constituency votes and by three points to 32% on the regional list since the last poll in August.
The survey indicates that Swinney is on track to lead the SNP into a third decade in power at Holyrood come 2026.
Using the survey’s analysis, polling expert and Strathclyde University professor John Curtice, has projected the SNP would return 59 MSPs. The SNP runs a minority government currently with 62 MSPs.
“The finger of blame for Labour’s predicament,” Curtice (below) said, “points to 10 Downing Street.”
He added: “Far from easing Anas Sarwar’s path to Bute House, Labour’s victory in July has seemingly made his task harder.”
According to Curtice the polling results Labour would return 20 MSPs, the Tories 19, Reform 13, LibDems 11 and Greens seven.
This would give the SNP and Greens a combined 66 seats, meaning there would be a pro-independence majority of three.
Swinney has also seen a rise in his popularity by four points to minus seven, according to the Norstat poll for The Sunday Times, making him the least unpopular politician in Scotland.
The Scottish Government's Budget unveiled on Wednesday included pledging to increase spending on benefits including the Winter Fuel Payment and mitigating the controversial two-child benefit cap.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer has reportedly come under significant pressure from within his party to scrap the benefits cap, as he has been warned by anti-poverty campaigners that his promise to reduce child poverty “will not be credible” if he does not co-operate with the Scottish Government.
Sarwar’s rating remained at minus 17 but has come under scrutiny as he and the Scottish Labour MPs have seemingly distanced themselves from the UK party in recent weeks despite previously backing Starmer's policy decisions.
