ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — It’s a bright new day in Major League Baseball. And, strangely enough, it would look great in black and white.
Some of the analytic-driven innovations of recent years — defensive shifts, the devaluation of the stolen base, the parade of relievers, to name a few — have been muted by a series of rule changes. Now fielders are positioned more like in the 1990s. And runners are stealing bases like in the 1980s. And games are moving almost as quickly as in the 1970s. By hitting rewind, baseball has discovered a whole new future.
Now, this isn’t a poke at the statistically-adventurous crowd, of which the Rays have been at the forefront. They taught us truths we never knew existed in a century-old game. But somewhere along the way, those winning calculations inadvertently robbed baseball of some of its longstanding charm.
And now rule changes, which began modestly a few years ago, have arrived more forcefully in 2023 to reintroduce a version of this game we had almost forgotten we missed.
The introduction of the pitch clock, for instance, has shaved nearly 30 minutes of batting glove-tugging, pitcher-pondering, fan-fidgeting dead time off the average length of game. Pitches are coming so quickly, you commit to washing your hands during a bathroom break at your own peril.
Are these tweaks universally loved? No, there are still fans/players who abhor change even if it is nostalgically driven.
But, for the most part, the revamping of rules seems to have accomplished exactly what baseball officials were hoping for: a slimmed-down, more athletic, less lumbering version of the game. Batting averages are up, stolen bases are up, scoring is up. Tedium, presumably, is down.
So, a little more than one week into the season, what’s the biggest change?
Well, the pitch clock will clearly have the greatest effect on the way we consume games, but it’s still too early to say which of the other changes will ultimately have the most profound consequence on the field.
Is it the way the larger bases and limited pickoff moves have emboldened base stealers? Is it the rule that dictates infielders stay on their respective sides of second base and off the outfield grass? Is it the way the pitch clock could adversely affect older pitchers who seem to be running out of steam later in games?
It’s a ridiculously small sample size, but we asked Rays this week about their thoughts on the impact of rule changes.
Shifting gears
The shift had become so prevalent in the game that we tend to forget it barely existed 10 years ago. What started as an occasional strategy against pull-happy left-handed hitters became a routine occurrence with teams stacking three infielders on one side of the diamond with second basemen often playing in short rightfield.
The strategy contributed to the launch angle revolution — with an excess of strikeouts and home runs — because pull hitters were tired of hitting rockets that became routine outs against the shift. So they sacrificed ground balls and line drives in the quest to hit balls over the heads of the shifted defenders.
“I’ve had a few hits already this year that were outs last year into the shift,” Rays second baseman Brandon Lowe said. “It’s great not to hit that ball at 110 (mph) and the second baseman just takes a drop step and throws you out by 30 feet.
“No matter who you are, you’re going to get upset if you square a ball up in the hole and the second baseman makes a play on it 30 feet into the outfield. You can’t help but let out a sigh. It’s anguish.”
Lowe is off to a relatively slow start this season with only 30 percent of his batted balls registering as hard-hit (exit velocity of 95 mph or more) compared to 41.8 percent the past two years. Yet his batting average on balls in play has risen from .278 to .300 this season.
The flip side is that the Rays helped revolutionize shifts on defense, and now they must keep two infielders on the clay on either side of second base. While the shift is technically banned, there are still modified versions with a shortstop or second baseman playing up the middle. They just need to be careful not to cross an imaginary line behind second base before the pitch is made or they could be in violation.
The Rays will tweak their plans as they get more information but, for now, have four different alignments on each side of the field. There’s the traditional infield setup, a slight pull, an exaggerated pull and a man-on-first plan.
“Every time I look over there, I feel naked. When I don’t see those two (middle infielders) over there, I feel like something is going to happen,” said Rays bench coach Rodney Linares. “It’s interesting now, but I really like it. I like how it’s gotten the game a little more competitive. It used to be if a guy hit the ball over there, he was going to be out. Now, we have a little bit more offense.”
Born to run
One of the byproducts of advanced analytics was a reduction in stolen base attempts. Front offices were able to calculate that stolen base attempts were only worth the risk if your success rate was, roughly, above 75 percent. Anything below that, and you were doing more harm than good in terms of run expectancy.
So all it took to entice teams to re-acquaint themselves with the stolen base was enlarging the bases by a few inches and limiting pitcher pickoff moves. And voila! Stolen bases through the first week of the season have almost doubled from the first week of 2022. And the success rate is hovering around 80 percent.
The Rays hit so well through the first seven games of the season that they had not yet attempted a lot of stolen bases, but with one of the youngest and most athletic teams in the league, they’re banking on this rule change helping them more than any of the others.
Tampa Bay also has an advantage on the defensive side of the rule. Catchers Christian Bethancourt and Francisco Mejia combined to throw out 31 percent of opposing base stealers in 2022, which may help explain why they only had three stolen base attempts through the first seven games of 2023.
“We’re excited with the new rules behind the plate,” Bethancourt said. “We know we have good arms, and so this is the way we can show up in games. We can say, ‘Okay, we’re here and you gotta respect us.’ Frankie loves throwing guys out, I love throwing guys out; it’s what every catcher wants.”
Quick pitch
The lion’s share of attention on the pitch clock has been its effect on the duration of games but, one week into the season, there is some concern that it might be impacting older pitchers. Max Scherzer, the three-time Cy Young Award winner for the Mets, has a 1.80 ERA through the first five innings of games this season and a 41.53 ERA in the sixth inning.
As before, the sample size is ridiculously small. But even Scherzer, at age 38, has wondered aloud whether the pitch clock is affecting his stamina later in games.
“There are starting pitchers you’re going to have to buy time for with mound visits,” Rays manager Kevin Cash said. “(Pitching coach) Kyle (Snyder) said it during spring training. Some of these pitchers, it’s like doing a dead lift every pitch to maximize every muscle in their body to get it to 98 mph.”
The Rays, again, should not have that problem. They do not have a pitcher older than 31, and their starters have pitched into the sixth inning in five of seven games.
These changes might not add up to baseball’s golden era in the 1950s and ’60s, but they’ve gotten us close enough to appreciate a version of the game once forgotten.
