TAMPA, Fla. — They have studied video and analyzed tendencies. They have tweaked this and tinkered with that. When it comes to fixing their offense, the Bucs have considered much and done little.
And that’s regrettable. Because, as bad as this offense looks on paper, it is even worse on the field.
How is that possible?
If you look at the first three quarters of games when, presumably, teams are running their base offense, the Bucs are embarrassingly weak. They are tied with the woeful Broncos for the fewest touchdowns in the NFL at 12. That translates to 0.9 TDs per week in the first 45 minutes of games.
And it explains why, in 10 of their 13 games, the Bucs have trailed at some point in the second half.
The only time Tampa Bay has been impressive on offense has been in the fourth quarter.
— They scored 14 in the final five minutes to beat the Saints.
— They scored 10 in the final eight minutes to beat the Rams.
— They scored 10 in the final five minutes to nearly catch the Ravens.
— They scored 10 in the final seven minutes to beat the Saints in their first meeting.
So, what’s the difference in the fourth quarter? Well, the obvious answer is the Bucs have had success abandoning their game plan and turned to a two-minute offense.
Eureka, right? Switch to a hurry-up and everything is solved.
Not necessarily. Some of the success in the fourth quarter might also be attributed to opponents playing a softer defense to prevent a quick score. And to operate out of the hurry-up for an entire game carries the risk of too many three-and-outs, and that can put undue strain on a defense.
Still, why not search for a middle ground?
We know, by now, that whatever philosophy the Bucs are bringing to the huddle in the first quarter does not work. They’ve had 13 weeks to fix it, and the results are obvious.
So why not incorporate some of the principles of the hurry-up earlier in games? Not 100 percent of the time, but as a change of pace to keep defenses from getting comfortable.
The Bucs have the most accomplished and experienced quarterback in history, so why not let Tom Brady call more plays at the line of scrimmage? Why not go no-huddle to prevent defensive substitutions, and allow Brady to take as much time as he likes while surveying the defense before the snap? Why not more funk and less dunk?
The Bucs are older and thinner than in previous years and can no longer count on beating teams mano-a-mano. The offensive line is shaky, and the receivers are not getting separation in their routes.
With that in mind, the Bucs need to take the predictability out of their offense and force defenses to guess more.
Is it risky? Maybe. Is it foolhardy to make sweeping changes in December? Potentially.
But what’s the downside? Do the Bucs think this version of offense is suddenly going to start clicking in time for the playoffs? Do they think they can succeed in January by winning every game 17-14?
Because, in the last 20-plus years, no team has won a playoff game with an offense as weak as this.
Head coach Todd Bowles was asked on Monday what changes he’s seen since the first three weeks of the season when the offense produced only three touchdowns.
“It’s a little different. Rachaad (White) is involved a little bit more, obviously,” Bowles said. “We’ve got the running game going a little bit better, not as much as we want it to be. It’s a little bit more spread out; we’re trying to spread the ball around some.”
Sorry, but that’s not enough.
Bowles has correctly surmised that Tampa Bay has a better chance of winning low-scoring games because the Bucs are stronger on the defensive side of the ball. And for the past three months, that has meant he would rather not take unnecessary chances on the offensive side.
But the problem is, Tampa Bay’s defense is merely good, and not great. The Bucs don’t overwhelm teams and they don’t force turnovers. And that means they need to get more out of their offense.
They need to push the envelope. They need to incorporate a different mindset. It’s not just throwing the ball more — they already lead the league in pass attempts — but using a new approach. Being less predictable.
The bottom line is the Bucs can no longer wait for success to materialize on offense. The season is already three-quarters of the way finished, and the current offensive plan has failed.
It’s time for a fresh plan. A bold plan.
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