LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. — One batter in, and the Rays were on the move. Wander Franco led off the bottom of the first against the Yankees on Tuesday with a walk, and was quickly cut down trying to steal second base.
The result, in a spring game, is inconsequential. The mindset, however, could be monumental.
Along with more celebrated rule changes such as the pitching clock, Major League Baseball is subtly trying to encourage base stealing by limiting the number of pickoff attempts by pitchers. A pitcher is allowed two pickoff moves during an at-bat — technically he’s allowed to disengage with the pitching rubber two times — and will be charged with a balk if a third move does not result in picking off the runner.
Suddenly, speed is in vogue again and aggressiveness on the bases could turn into a virtue.
Sound like any team you know?
The Rays may have been thrown out on the bases a maddening number of times in 2022, but their stockpile of athleticism could be weaponized if they take advantage of this rule judiciously.
When similar rule changes were introduced in the minors last season, the effect may not have been dramatic but it was visible. The Triple-A International League went from 1.95 steal attempts per game to 2.40 attempts from 2021 to 2022.
“Everybody that has experienced it has talked about how one (pickoff) throw over — just one — alters everything,” Rays manager Kevin Cash said. “I would not have guessed that, I wouldn’t have thought it was that big of a deal, but we’re going to find out how it plays.
“I’d like to take advantage of it, yeah.”
In some ways, the Rays are perfectly constructed to take advantage. They’re not loaded with a lot of power hitters in the middle of the order, but they do have speed up and down the lineup. At least seven of their hitters — Randy Arozarena, Vidal Brujan, Franco, Manuel Margot, Josh Lowe, Jose Siri and Taylor Walls — have attempted 30 or more stolen bases in a minor- or major-league season in the past.
The trick is knowing how to use the rule to your advantage. Lowe played in a little more than half of Durham’s games last season and stole 25 bases in 27 attempts.
Lowe said he would often take a bigger lead early in the count to entice a pitcher to throw over to first. And once the pitcher threw over once, they were reluctant to try it again because a would-be base stealer would then have a huge advantage.
“You’re not on the bases to run every time, but the new rules give you a better opportunity to exploit situations,” Lowe said. “You take a bigger lead to see if the guy is even considering picking you off. If he doesn’t, you can just take off. If he does, then you know he’s down to one more time he can throw over.
“You also see guys who are watching the pitch clock out of the corner of their eye and timing when they’re going to run. If it gets down to 3-2-1, you’re ready to take off.”
The rule could also lead to changes in how pitchers work on the mound. If they cannot hold runners with their pickoff move, they may adjust how quickly they get the ball to the plate. And that could change the quality of their stuff if they’re speeding up their delivery.
“It takes the running game out of the manager’s hands — or whoever is controlling it — and puts more emphasis on the pitcher and catcher,” said Rays third base coach Brady Williams, who was the manager at Durham the past three seasons. “Mainly, the pitchers have to work on giving the catcher a chance. You have to work on being efficient and quicker to home in your side sessions between outings.
“The thing we saw is when you’re certain the pitcher is not going to throw over, even if you’re not the best baserunner, you’re going to be able to steal that base if the pitcher doesn’t get the ball home quickly.”
Typically, MLB teams want to be successful on at least 75 percent of their stolen base attempts. Anything lower than that, and you’re costing yourself too many outs to make the extra base worthwhile.
Even with the increase in attempts last season, the success rate in the International League increased from 75.7 percent to 78.8. That might sound like a very slight advantage, but it could be enticing to teams with a handful of quick baserunners.
The trick is making sure the right guys are going, which is something the Rays struggled with in 2022.
“We were not as bad baserunning as it might have looked on the field because we had really good team speed,” Cash said. “A lot of times you would see a guy go from first to third and he would just walk in to third base. Whereas, a lot of other teams, that guy is not even trying to get to third. And if he is, he’s thrown out. Now, I’m not downplaying it. We had a lot of lapses on the bases … but our team speed kind of bailed us out from being really, really bad.
“So there’s a cost-reward, right? And we might have pushed it a little too much.”
In 2023, that might not be such a bad thing.
