TAMPA, Fla. — Put down the tape measure, and step away from the quarterback.
This manhunt for Tom Brady’s replacement in Tampa Bay needs to pump the brakes. Yes, the Bucs need a new quarterback and, yes, fantasy shopping is one of the true joys of the offseason.
But before you begin breaking down film and arguing on social media, there are some serious questions that need to be sorted out. The kind of questions with ramifications that last beyond the 2022 calendar.
We’re all fascinated by the idea that the Bucs and Rams won consecutive Super Bowls by bringing in Pro Bowl quarterbacks, and there’s a natural temptation to begin looking for the next mercenary champion.
But this isn’t a one-ingredient recipe. Just because you make a trade or a big free-agent splash does not guarantee a thing. Ask the Jaguars about Nick Foles. Or the Vikings about Kirk Cousins. Or the Colts about Carson Wentz. Or, if you want to bring up bad memories, the Bucs about Chris Chandler.
It’s admirable to search for the best quarterback you can find, but it’s also important to be realistic about a team’s likelihood to contend. About future draft picks and salary caps. About timing and fit.
To be blunt, this is not two years ago. This is not Tom Brady, Part Deux.
The landscape was different for the Bucs in 2020. First of all, Brady was a free agent. He wasn’t going to cost draft picks. He wasn’t going to cost anything other than a sizable chunk of Glazer money.
And, this time, there are no six-time Super Bowl winners sitting in the free-agent aisle. The best free-agent quarterback available, according to Pro Football Focus, is Jameis Winston. And y’all lost your damn minds when I suggested a few weeks ago that he might be worth considering.
Also, the salary cap was not so snug in Tampa Bay back in 2020. In fact, the Bucs had about $80 million to play with before signing Brady, which gave them more flexibility than almost any team in the league.
Finally, the Bucs were a younger team in 2020. They weren’t potentially going into the season with four defensive starters (Ndamukong Suh, Lavonte David, Jason Pierre-Paul and William Gholston) at 31 and older.
This doesn’t mean the Bucs can’t be contenders in 2022, but the margin for error is narrower. It will likely take draft picks and it will likely mean borrowing against future salary caps to find a quarterback. So it will likely not work as smoothly or effectively as Brady’s arrival in 2020.
(And, please, do not shout that Kyle Trask is the answer. Maybe, down the road, he will be. But he’s never taken a snap in the NFL, and Bruce Arians is not likely to spend his 70th birthday grooming a quarterback for someone else to enjoy a few years later.)
So where does this leave the Bucs in 2022?
Personally, I would suggest sticking with the dollar slots rather than going all-in at the poker table.
The Lions set a baseline last season for acquiring a premium quarterback. They got two first-round picks, a third-round pick and a former No. 1 overall pick (Jared Goff) in exchange for Stafford.
That’s a high price, but it’s worth it for a Super Bowl. The question is whether you think the Bucs will still have a Super Bowl-quality roster with Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette, Carlton Davis, Ryan Jensen, Suh, Pierre-Paul, William Gholston, Rob Gronkowski and Jordan Whitehead all potentially leaving via free agency or retirement.
Also, it’s looking less and less likely that Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson are going anywhere, which means paying that premium price, or something similar, for Kyler Murray or Deshaun Watson.
And that means you either believe Watson or Murray will take the Bucs to the Super Bowl 11 months from now, or they will be franchise quarterbacks for at least another four to five years. I’m not so sure.
I’d prefer to hedge my bets. Other less attractive quarterbacks could be found at greatly reduced cost. The Colts gave up first- and third-round picks for Wentz just a year ago, but seem to have soured on him already. Between the size of his contract and Indianapolis’ desire to move on, he could probably be acquired at a price that would not seriously damage future drafts.
The same is probably true of Jimmy Garoppolo in San Francisco. He may be limited as a quarterback, but in his two full seasons as a starter, he’s reached the Super Bowl and the NFC Championship.
The point is Wentz and Garoppolo can get the Bucs to the playoffs in 2022 and still ensure Tampa Bay is not going to be without first-round draft picks or stuck in salary cap purgatory.
Is that the best the Bucs can hope for? No, but it’s definitely safer.
