Just weeks into his leadership of the Victorian opposition, John Pesutto led the push to expel rookie MP Moira Deeming from the Liberal party room.
In so doing, he “bandied around” words like “Nazi” and “Nazi sympathisers”, according a federal court judge, who on Thursday found Pesutto defamed Deeming, and ordered that he pay $300,000 in damages.
When legal costs are factored in, the total bill could run into the millions – and it remains to be seen who will foot it. Deeming also said she expects to be returned to the party room.
Despite this, Pesutto has resisted calls from his own MPs and senior Liberal figures such as Tony Abbott to resign. And, at the time of writing, no Liberal MPs have stepped forward publicly to challenge his leadership.
“I’m continuing on in this role,” Pesutto told reporters on Thursday.
“What members wish to do is entirely their prerogative but I’m not aware of any such steps being taken.”
Such is the dilemma the Liberal party room finds itself in – after nearly two years of undermining Pesutto and near-constant speculation of a leadership spill, disgruntled MPs might have finally found the ammunition to act.
But under Pesutto’s leadership, the party is enjoying its strongest polling in years. Midway through the defamation trial, the Coalition even recorded its first election-winning poll since 2017.
At his press conference, Pesutto repeatedly sought to emphasise that his plan to stick to mainstream political issues – such as roads, hospitals, schools and debt – was paying off.
Several times, he said he was “resonating” with voters – even as the party’s dirty laundry was being livestreamed daily from the court.
“I’m finding them, when we’re out in the community … embracing us more,” he said.
Guardian Australia has spoken to several Liberal MPs, including those loyal to Pesutto and those who voted against him in both Deeming’s expulsion motion and the 2022 leadership ballot – which he won by a single vote. With the exception of one, all said a leadership spill would not go ahead.
“If we were still down in the polls, if we still had a primary vote in the 20s, I’d say we do it,” a conservative MP said.
“But to move against him now, with things going the way they are, it would be the biggest own goal. And we’re a party that’s had enough of them to last a lifetime.”
While some are loath to give Pesutto the credit for improving the party’s fortunes – instead suggesting voter fatigue with a decade of Labor government – others argue he has presented the Coalition as a credible alternative to voters seeking change.
As one MP loyal to Pesutto said: “He has done exactly what he promised the party he would do when he was elected leader in December 2022.”
Under party rules, any Liberal MP can move a spill motion if another member seconds it. But Pesutto’s rivals would need to provide five days’ notice to call a special party room meeting, and secure 16 out of 30 votes to oust him.
The first challenge on this front is logistical – the earliest a meeting could be held is just days from Christmas and many MPs are already on leave. One MP who had been agitating for a spill argued the political fallout from the defamation case will have subsided by the time a meeting can be held.
“It’s quite literally a case of missing the boat,” they said. “Once we’re in the new year, we have a byelection in Prahran, we have a federal election and it’ll be too late.”
The second challenge is numerical. None of the potential challengers have enough support to mount a serious challenge.
“They’re all in single digits,” one MP said.
The MP said reports of a spill in early October, which they described as “ill-timed” and “unwarranted”, actually strengthened support for Pesutto.
As for the prospect of inviting Deeming back into the party room, most MPs believe it is unlikely, despite her claims of being “unjustly expelled”.
“I have every right to be there, I did nothing wrong. All the accusations made about me, they were just disproven in court,” Deeming told reporters on Thursday.
“I still believe in this party.”
Narracan MP Wayne Farnham – who was among five MPs who moved the expulsion motion against Deeming – said he would “not vote for her return”, citing her record on the crossbench.
“I’m not welcoming back someone into the party who votes with Labor,” he said.
So, another dilemma emerges: at a time when Pesutto’s leadership should be at its weakest, it may in fact be at its strongest.
After a significant court victory Deeming says has “vindicated” her, the path back to the party appears more unlikely than ever.
