NEW research giving a healthy lead for Scottish independence underlines the drift in Yes support and support for the SNP, according to a top polling expert.
Professor John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, told The National that a Norstat poll for The Sunday Times – which put support for Yes on 54% – was a “bit of an outlier” but noted that other recent polls had put the pro-independence camp in the lead.
The polling expert also argued there was insufficient detail to draw any firm conclusions on why Yes support was at its highest level for that pollster in more than four years, adding: “There aren’t any other questions in the poll that will cast any light as to why it should be on the high side.”
And Curtice said it was not possible “as yet” to firmly link a Yes lead with the unpopularity of the new Labour Government.
He said that the poll did, however, add weight to a pile of evidence showing that the link between supporting independence and voting SNP was weakening.
Curtice said: “You’ve still only got about not even quite two-thirds of current supporters of Yes saying that they would vote for the SNP. There’s a bit of a rise in support for the SNP, but not a lot. It’s the decline in Labour, much of which is happening among Unionists and some of it’s going to Reform.”
The poll also gave a post-Budget boost for the SNP Government in Holyrood, putting them on course for a historic third decade in power if they were able to strike a deal with the Scottish Greens after the 2026 Holyrood election.
Curtice’s analysis of the poll for The Sunday Times predicted that the SNP would win 59 seats, with the Greens on course for seven, a pro-independence majority of three MSPs.
It was bad news for Anas Sarwar (above), with Scottish Labour on course for 20 MSPs and Curtice said the party may be bleeding support to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, who could gain 13 seats – ahead of the LibDems and Greens.
Curtice said: “There is no doubt that Labour are down but there’s still a question mark about how far they’re down and we could do with more polling.”
He added: “The point is: Labour are now in a wee bit of bother, that doesn’t mean to say that the SNP’s bother is over.”
