STEPHEN Flynn is risking the anger of SNP members with a bid for Holyrood – but may be doing so to establish himself as a successor to John Swinney, Professor John Curtice has said.
The eminent polling expert spoke to The Sunday National about the potential impact of Flynn and other SNP MPs’ decisions to stand for Holyrood while retaining their Westminster seats, which is known as “double-jobbing”.
Flynn’s announcement that he would aim to stand for the Scottish Parliament in the 2026 election earlier in the week was soon followed by similar announcements from MPs Dave Doogan and Stephen Gethins. The SNP’s remaining six MPs will not be looking to run, it is understood.
The three’s decision has led to some concerns within the party, especially given that in 2021 the SNP National Executive Committee (NEC) put a rule in place which required MPs wanting to run for Holyrood to first resign their place at Westminster.
Then-MP Joanna Cherry said she could not make her staff redundant and decided not to stand – a result which was largely seen as the reason behind the NEC’s decision.
However, First Minister John Swinney has said that the party can change the rules if members choose – and SNP insiders have been briefing media saying that the 2021 rule was “election specific” and does not automatically apply to 2026.
Asked for his view, Curtice said there that it was difficult to say whether the data showed that an election candidate’s double-jobbing made people any less likely to vote for them.
“I'm not aware that anybody ever proved it,” he said, adding that former Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross’s high-profile loss of his Westminster seat in July was likely more impacted by the fact that it was “a controversial decision for him to stand in the first place … than the fact that he might be double-jobbing”.
“It clearly causes internal party rows,” he said.
“It's one of those things that really exorcises party members, and it certainly exorcises those whose careers might be on the line.
“So, it’s clearly the case that the person who's currently the SNP MSP for the seat is none too happy. That's Stephen Flynn's decision.”
Curtice said that the SNP NEC’s rule from 2021 was “particularly tough” – noting that it went further than laws banning double-jobbing elsewhere in the UK.
“The law in both Northern Ireland and now in Wales does actually rule out double-jobbing,” he said, “but you're not required to resign until you find yourself in that situation.”
“Jeffrey Donaldson was elected to the Stormont Assembly in the last Northern Irish election while still being a Westminster MP. He then simply resigned.”
The SNP NEC looks unlikely to reimpose the 2021 rule forcing MPs to resign before standing for Holyrood. Doing so could see them force by-elections in one-third of all their Westminster seats.
Curtice said the General Election results in July, which saw Scottish Labour win the majority of seats north of the Border, were “an obvious reason why from their point of view it would not be a good idea”.
Asked if that could look like a Flynn coronation, which may also irk SNP members, Curtice said: “That’s the risk Flynn is taking.”
However, Curtice said that “frankly anybody from the other political parties who comments, it's a slight case of the kettle calling the pot black”.
“All of them, all of them, did it when Holyrood was first created, and the SNP since, including particularly by [Alex] Salmond twice. So friends of Salmond should probably keep silent, and of course the Tories should.
“The Tories can say, ‘well, you criticised us’, but that's just yahoo politics.”
