JOHN Curtice has said that Labour’s General Election victory in July has made it more difficult for Anas Sarwar to become first minister.
It comes after polling released on Sunday found that John Swinney is on track to lead the SNP into a third decade in power at Holyrood in 2026.
Figures showed that Scottish Labour would return just 20 MSPs with just 21% of Scots saying they would vote Labour on the constituency ballot – down nine points on Norstat’s poll in August.
Polling also revealed support for Scottish independence is at its highest level for four years – with 54% saying they would vote Yes when undecided voters are removed.
Writing in The Times, Curtice said: “The finger of blame for Scottish Labour’s predicament points to 10 Downing Street.
“In August Sir Keir Starmer’s (above) net approval rating stood at -5; while 33% believed he was doing a bad job, 28% reckoned he was doing a good one.
“Now, his net rating stands at -32. True, Sarwar’s score has also slipped – from -8 in August to -17 now – but the decline has not been as steep as that for his UK counterpart.
“Far from easing Sarwar’s path to Bute House, Labour’s victory in July has seemingly made his task harder.”
Despite a positive showing for the SNP in the latest poll, Curtice did say that while the Scottish Budget was a positive for the party, Swinney “still has plenty to do to ensure a pro-independence majority in Holyrood in 2026”.
He added: “Expect Swinney to take every advantage he can of divisions between Westminster and Holyrood within Labour’s ranks in the coming months.”
