Selection Sunday is finally in sight, which will thankfully halt all the projecting, speculating, and (ugh) lobbying concerning who's in and who's out of the first "normal" NCAA men's basketball tournament in three years.
John Calipari is lobbying. Of course he is. The Kentucky coach has been shouting from the mountain tops, or nearest Zoom room, that the SEC deserves eight teams in this year's Big Dance. Saturday, via Twitter, Calipari expanded the number of those deserving to nine.
"Any team in the SEC that's 9-9 should be in the NCAA Tournament," Cal tweeted. "The top four teams in our league went 35-1 at home. Crazy! We are the best league and our teams deserve that respect!!"
Cal's not wrong about the respect part. Four of the AP's top 15 teams reside in the SEC. If you go by the coach's 9-9 criteria, however, nine league teams would hear their names called Sunday night — Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, LSU, Alabama, Texas A&M, Florida and South Carolina.
The so-called bracketologists aren't so bullish, however. As of Tuesday, ESPN's Joe Lunardi had six SEC teams in his field of 68, compared to eight from the Big Ten and seven from the Big East. CBS Sports' Jerry Palm also had eight Big Ten teams in his field of 68, compared to just six from the SEC.
So is the Big Ten that much better than the SEC? Depends on who you ask. Analytics savant Ken Pomeroy has the Big 12 ranked as is his No. 1 conference, just ahead of the SEC. (Never mind that the SEC won the SEC/Big 12 Challenge for the second straight year.) He puts the Big Ten third. Computer whiz Jeff Sagarin has the Big 12 at No. 1, the Big Ten at No. 2 and the SEC at No. 3.
OK, so let's make the individual case for the SEC nine:
Auburn: Bruce Pearl's Tigers won the league outright. Next question: Is Auburn a No. 1 seed? Palm and Bill Bender of the Sporting News say yes. Lunardi and Patrick Stevens of the Washington Post say no.
Tennessee: The Vols won nine of their last 10, including home wins over Auburn, Kentucky and Arkansas. Lunardi, Palm, Bender and Stevens all have Tennessee as a No. 3 seed. Considering its No. 8 NCAA NET ranking and No. 10 strength of schedule, according to Sagarin, Tennessee could easily be a No. 2.
Kentucky: A no-show for last year's COVID-restricted dance party, the Cats are back. Most everyone has Calipari's club as a No. 2 seed, with an NET ranking (No. 4) strong enough to snatch a No. 1.
Arkansas: Since Jan. 12, the Razorbacks are 14-2 with losses at Alabama (by one) and Tennessee (by four). Eric Musselman's Hogs are a consensus No. 4 seed.
LSU: After a 15-1 start, Will Wade's club finished the regular season 21-10. An NCAA NET ranking of No. 16 not only assures the Tigers a spot in the field but possibly a No. 5 seed.
Alabama: Bama's in the field, thanks in part to a No. 27 NET ranking. Most have Nate Oats' club as a No. 5 seed, but an early SEC tourney knockout would be the Tide's third straight loss.
Florida: The first of the SEC bubble teams, the Gators are among the "first four out" or "next four out" for Lunardi, Palm and Stevens. Florida defeated Auburn but lost to Arkansas and Kentucky at home over the last two weeks. Bender has the Gators as a 12-seed. Still, Florida needs a first-round SEC tourney win over Texas A&M.
Texas A&M: Conversely, the Aggies need a first-round SEC tourney win over Florida. A&M has played its way onto the bubble by winning five of its last six games. A deep run in Tampa could put Buzz Williams into the field.
South Carolina: At 18-12, the Gamecocks are a long shot. Frank Martin's club was 0-6 against the league's Big Four and is ranked No. 90 by the NET. Anything less than an SEC title game appearance isn't likely to catch the committee's eye.
